[buddha]

Very good analogy Buddha makes alot of sense and takes a whole another thing to add to handicapping something that I often overlook. The human psyche and the whole mental attitude of the players themselves. However I haven't look into this as a whole but this year at least it doesn't hold true only 15 out of 45 games have seen the underdog the victor

That 33 % yes on the surface unimpressive but improves when one "chooses their spots, of course" combines the perception of saturdays with their other handicapping conclusions.

How many LARGE Dogs (+185 or greater) were found amongst those 15 out of 45? Especially after one had concluded based on their other handicapping that this Large Dog held Value?

Just Food for Thought really, all of this....it has been "my take" over many years of MLB betting. I have cashed many more LARGE Dogs on Saturday than any other day.

When this take on saturdays in MLB was used as a filter to apply to leans born from normal handicapping process.

Saturday Overs/Large Dog success....in part, at least, may be due to my own betting behavior/perception.

If nothing else the "psychological" had to be considered where regards Hot or Cold Streaks of Teams....loss of a key player that might affect teams psyche....

Psychology may explain why Baseball is such a Streaky game, teams go on Winning or Losing streaks, Low or High Scoring Streaks etc.


On Saturday also though.....there are more kids in the crowd so possibly this motivates players to do better (more excitement/enthusiasm from the crowd)....possibly there is a better overall "vibe" in the stadium bcuz the crowd is more fun than on weekdays or Sundays?

[vegasreaper]

That 33 % yes on the surface unimpressive but improves when one "chooses their spots, of course" combines the perception of saturdays with their other handicapping conclusions.

How many LARGE Dogs (+185 or greater) were found amongst those 15 out of 45? Especially after one had concluded based on their other handicapping that this Large Dog held Value?

Just Food for Thought really, all of this....it has been "my take" over many years of MLB betting. I have cashed many more LARGE Dogs on Saturday than any other day.

When this take on saturdays in MLB was used as a filter to apply to leans born from normal handicapping process.

Saturday Overs/Large Dog success....in part, at least, may be due to my own betting behavior/perception.

If nothing else the "psychological" had to be considered where regards Hot or Cold Streaks of Teams....loss of a key player that might affect teams psyche....

Psychology may explain why Baseball is such a Streaky game, teams go on Winning or Losing streaks, Low or High Scoring Streaks etc.


On Saturday also though.....there are more kids in the crowd so possibly this motivates players to do better (more excitement/enthusiasm from the crowd)....possibly there is a better overall "vibe" in the stadium bcuz the crowd is more fun than on weekdays or Sundays?

Really appreciate your input Buddha, I will definitely add it to my arsenal makes alot of sense. So many things to analyze and handicap when it comes to baseball thats why so many people just don't bother with it. Stats stats and more stats, personality traits, first game back after long road trip having to hear the wives, friends etc want tickets and what not. I personally though think that it is the best to make money at with alot of hard work and shoot for those that want to do totals, overs and unders you can through in the umpire rotations

[vegasreaper]

Late add 977 BOSTON-100

[vegasreaper]

Well we got 2.95 back from yesterday to bring us back up to 27.30

[buddha]

Really appreciate your input Buddha, I will definitely add it to my arsenal makes alot of sense. So many things to analyze and handicap when it comes to baseball thats why so many people just don't bother with it. Stats stats and more stats, personality traits, first game back after long road trip having to hear the wives, friends etc want tickets and what not. I personally though think that it is the best to make money at with alot of hard work and shoot for those that want to do totals, overs and unders you can through in the umpire rotations

So Much....as you mention.

I probably rely, focus on the psychological aspects too much really....wish I was more like cappers like yourself who have the special patience to delve deeply into the numbers.

Appropriate that with all that you mention above ^^^^ that your final Two Words = "umpire rotations".

Tiny % of cappers go that deep, those that do have better win %.

Thats why I don't worry if you have down days or even cold streaks...bcuz you do the work, those that do the work and do that to the level that you do, I believe they have better overall results.

I grasp that your mention of Umpires was for guys who bet O/Us, not your focus but mentioning them just indicates you know what to use for what.

Thanks again for the thread and your generosity in sharing here, in past NCAAFootball/NFL....we have even messed with some Horses on occasion lol, Kentucky Derby and the like. You're among the most Solid Guys on here.

[vegasreaper]

So Much....as you mention.

I probably rely, focus on the psychological aspects too much really....wish I was more like cappers like yourself who have the special patience to delve deeply into the numbers.

Appropriate that with all that you mention above ^^^^ that your final Two Words = "umpire rotations".

Tiny % of cappers go that deep, those that do have better win %.

Thats why I don't worry if you have down days or even cold streaks...bcuz you do the work, those that do the work and do that to the level that you do, I believe they have better overall results.

I grasp that your mention of Umpires was for guys who bet O/Us, not your focus but mentioning them just indicates you know what to use for what.

Thanks again for the thread and your generosity in sharing here, in past NCAAFootball/NFL....we have even messed with some Horses on occasion lol, Kentucky Derby and the like. You're among the most Solid Guys on here.

Thanks my friend for all the kind words. I really do try to do this with my best effort and help those that struggle make some cash. This is why when things struggle and the naysayers and trashtalkers in here start stepping in I always take it personal. Thats why so many people here I talk with tell me why do you even bother with the forums you get the grief and insults from people who don't really understand the longevity of this endeavor all things will go through their phases but through money management we expect to have more good days than bad and at the end we come out a little ahead and as our bankroll grows so do our wagers. Well anyways thanks again for the compliments I appreciate it and I shall continue the hard work it takes for us to hopefully succeed

[vegasreaper]

Glad we could finish the week off on a positive note. Now let's start the new one off on a positive. Here we go!!!

906-ARI-125
907-MIA+130
910-SFG-190
914-DET-160
919-CLE-145
921-KCR+115
924-SEA-145

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

[vegasreaper]

Going to add two more plays to todays games. Would have been three games but line has completely flipped in the NYY/TEX game was NYY-140 which would have been a play but now TEX favored -110 so we'll pass

912-TOR-175
916-TBR-135

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

[iloseagain]

GL today reaper

[Coolice]

Thanks Vegas, keep up the good work,...very much appreciated. Luke.

[vegasreaper]

Well glad to say we start the week off with another nice profitable day of +2.10 which brings us to +29.40 so far. Here we go with tomorrows,well actually think I will put off and do in the morning as there is some serious chalk and not sure if I care to lay 300 on anybody, even my boy Kershawwould be risking 17.50 units to make 11.00

[vegasreaper]

Results from Monday 4-25

906-ARI-125
907-MIA+130
910-SFG-190
914-DET-160
919-CLE-145
921-KCR+115
924-SEA-145
912-TOR-175
916-TBR-135

[vegasreaper]

Well I will go ahead and put the less chalky ones so all can take advantage of reduced lines

952-WAS-195
954-NYM-160
956-CHC-200
957-PIT-130
962-LAD-1.5-125
965-CWS-125
967-OAK-115
972-TEX+120
974-MIN-115
977-HOU-125
979-BOS-170

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

[Puffdog]

906-ARI-125
907-MIA+130
910-SFG-190
914-DET-160
919-CLE-145
921-KCR+115
924-SEA-145
912-TOR-175
916-TBR-135[/QUOTE]


Great job VR another soild day!

[Coolice]

Good morning VegasR. David Letterman always had his top 10 list,.. May I respectfully ask what your TOP 3 picks would be from today's list,...excluding Kershaw/Dodgers which is an obvious favorite,.. Thanks as always and continued success my friend. Luke

[vegasreaper]

good morning vegasr. David letterman always had his top 10 list,.. May i respectfully ask what your top 3 picks would be from today's list,...excluding kershaw/dodgers which is an obvious favorite,.. Thanks as always and continued success my friend. Luke

GOOD MORNING EVERYONE

oakland
cws
was

[Coolice]

Thanks for the reply,... I have simply been spreading myself too thin, betting 4 or 5 games,.. That's why I asked V.R. ... Yesterday I was on Cleveland, K.C. and Toronto.
As many have said in the past, "If it weren't for bad luck, I wouldn't have any luck at all." Appreciate your help, take care. Luke.

[vegasreaper]

Thanks for the reply,... I have simply been spreading myself too thin, betting 4 or 5 games,.. That's why I asked V.R. ... Yesterday I was on Cleveland, K.C. and Toronto.
As many have said in the past, "If it weren't for bad luck, I wouldn't have any luck at all." Appreciate your help, take care. Luke.

Anytime my friend Luke, glad that I can be of assistance. However you do throw up a red flag to me my friend. The key ingredient to investing is money management,money management,money management.

I know you've heard this preached over and over and I can't express how important it truly is. You should be doing 2-3 % of your BR per play and if you are aggresive no more than 5 % at most.

This allows you to get through the tough times as all methods will encounter. Even if you say you only have 100.00 in BR then you should be betting 5.00 a game at most and I know it's not glamorous but this my friend,at least to me is what I do and it is a marathon and not a sprint.

After 3 weeks of following me you would already be 150.00 ahead versus trying to filter games out. This is why I always would tell people in the past that I don't like filtering out plays. As if it comes up a play through my methods then it's a play.

If you filter out like you did yesterday then you end up picking out the losers and tossing the winners. In the long run this is a very bad habit to form. As with those that follow different people who cap games it is inevitable that you will go broke.

You wind up ,in the long run, catching everyone's losing streaks. So anyway my friend hope that I have made sense to you and I can't express enough to everyone to use sound money management in your investments. GOOD LUCK TO US ALL AND CONTINUED SUCCESS

[Coolice]

True enough money management is key,... understood,... filtering as you say also can be detrimental,... Excellent advise well taken,... OK, true, a play is a play otherwise you wouldn't bother, good point,... Constructive advise,... Thank you.

[vegasreaper]

[TanBanana]

I'm pretty amazed at your thread thus far. Incredible that you are up nearly 30u so early in the season.

My weakness in learning money management is parlay/teaser bets that seem "too good to be true"... Someone needs to get it into my thick skull that it's not a get rich overnight situation and that it's a long term thing.

I will be tailing your bets and following this thread closely. Cheers!

[vegasreaper]

I'm pretty amazed at your thread thus far. Incredible that you are up nearly 30u so early in the season.

My weakness in learning money management is parlay/teaser bets that seem "too good to be true"... Someone needs to get it into my thick skull that it's not a get rich overnight situation and that it's a long term thing.

I will be tailing your bets and following this thread closely. Cheers!

Just remember my friend parlays pay the large payouts because they are THAT hard to hit. Anyone can hit them but in the long run it is a losing proposition this is why all of the sportsbooks love those parlay betters. BEST OF LUCK TO YOU MY FRIEND

[robert1d]

Hi VR,
I am new to your thread. Are you going to post the rest of your picks for today?
Thanks

[vegasreaper]

Hi VR,
I am new to your thread. Are you going to post the rest of your picks for today?
Thanks

They're already there my friend...why it's edited

[robert1d]

They're already there my friend...why it's edited

Tampa-Baltimore ?
I thought you said you play them all.

[vegasreaper]

Tampa-Baltimore ?
I thought you said you play them all.

LOL I don't give plays for EVERY game my friend just the ones my numbers come out with an edge. Today is alot we have action in 11 of 15 games isn't that enough?

[robert1d]

no, no...it's fine thank you anyway, since I don't follow baseball, but like to bet
It's more than enough!
Good luck to us all!

[dvb02]

Well I will go ahead and put the less chalky ones so all can take advantage of reduced lines

952-WAS-195
954-NYM-160
956-CHC-200
957-PIT-130
962-LAD-1.5-125
965-CWS-125
967-OAK-115
972-TEX+120
974-MIN-115
977-HOU-125
979-BOS-170

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

Let's keep the winning streak alive VR!!!!!!

[vegasreaper]

Sorry my friend Coolice almost went 3-0 for you

[vegasreaper]

First time in KERSHAWS career that he's given up five straight hits

[vegasreaper]

Well another solid day for us at +3.75 to bring us to a solid +33.15 units

[vegasreaper]

Okay let's keep the money train rolling. Here are the plays for Wednesday 4-27

906-NYM-210
910-COL+110
915-CWS+135
919-BAL+125
926-LAA-115
928-SEA-130
929-ATL+170

AS ALWAYS GOOD LUCK TO US ALL

[shopbar picks]

You rock. But I have a bookie that sucks. His LAD odds were 1 to 5. I know you say get an offshore acct. Not happening. I take my locals best odds and your picks. Hit 4 out of 4 and a six team parlay. Once again I beg for a VR ML MLB parlay

[dvb02]

Keep up the awesome work VR!!!!!!!!!

[Puffdog]

Well another solid day for us at +3.75 to bring us to a solid +33.15 units

Best day yet VR, There is only one way to go and we are headed to the top!!