1. 07-17-13 10:29 AM #1
    keel44
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    Keel44's Underdog System

    Keel44's Underdog System

    When I say underdog's, I mean anything with +odds. My money management strategy for this will be quite impressive.

    I am going to run a series of bets starting at a beginning dollar amount. Let us say $10. If I win a bet of say $14, then my next wager in that series will be $14. My next wager will always be the "win" amount only going forward. When I lose a wager, I will step back to the previous wager amount. If I lose my initial $10 wager, I increase the initial wager 40%. See example:

    $10 to win $14 (W)
    $14 to win $18 (W)
    $18 to win $20 (W) (+52 here)
    $20 to win $28 (L)
    $18 to win $24 (L)
    $14 to win $17 (L)
    $10 to win $12 (L) (-10 overall)
    increase 40%

    $14 to win $19 (start again)


    You can stop any time you want to collect profits. I will be running 3 of these little series at the same time, so you can stop and rake in the profits safely and reset the whole ball of wax.


    You see this follows my main theory of:
    "Press when your hot and chase when your not."
    Last edited by keel44; 07-17-13 at 10:32 AM.
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  2. 07-18-13 07:07 AM #2
    Dan Kelly
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    I like it

    BOL
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  3. 07-19-13 12:25 PM #3
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #1: Marlins FF over Brewers (+135) $12 to win $16.20
    Series B - Bet #1: Rangers -1.5 over Orioles (+140) $12 to win $16.80
    Series C - Bet #1: Angels -1.5 over A's (+160) $12 to win $19.20
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  4. 07-20-13 05:40 AM #4
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #1: Marlins FF over Brewers (+135) $12 to win $16.20
    Series B - Bet #1: Rangers -1.5 over Orioles (+140) $12 to win $16.80
    Series C - Bet #1: Angels -1.5 over A's (+160) $12 to win $19.20
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  5. 07-20-13 05:56 AM #5
    keel44
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    40% increase and a new start for series A and B


    Series A - Bet #1: Angels -1.5 over A's (+145) $16.80 to win $24.36
    Series B - Bet #1: Mariners -1.5 over Astros (+115) $16.80 to win $19.32
    Series C - Bet #2: Rockies -1.5 over Cubs (+135) $19.20 to win $25.92

    I needed to get these in now. I might not get the best odds.
    Last edited by keel44; 07-20-13 at 06:05 AM.
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  6. 07-20-13 11:47 PM #6
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #1: Angels -1.5 over A's (+145) $16.80 to win $24.36
    Series B - Bet #1: Mariners -1.5 over Astros (+115) $16.80 to win $19.32
    Series C - Bet #2: Rockies -1.5 over Cubs (+135) $19.20 to win $25.92

    All winners. I will now reset series A and B, but I'll keep pressing along series C.
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  7. 07-21-13 11:40 AM #7
    keel44
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    Series C - Bet #3: Brewers -1.5 over Marlins (+130) $25.92 to win $33.70
    Series A - Bet #1: Pirates over Reds (+123) $12 to win $14.76
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  8. 07-22-13 01:16 PM #8
    keel44
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    Series C - Bet #3: Brewers -1.5 over Marlins (+130) $25.92 to win $33.70
    Series A - Bet #1: Pirates over Reds (+123) $12 to win $14.76




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  9. 07-22-13 01:28 PM #9
    keel44
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    Series C - Bet#4: Rockies -2.5 over Marlins (+170) $19.20 to win $32.64
    Series A - Bet #2: Cubs over D-Backs (+125) $14.76 to win $18.45
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  10. 07-23-13 12:54 AM #10
    keel44
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    Series C - Bet #4: Rockies -2.5 over Marlins (+170) $19.20 to win $32.64
    Series A - Bet #2: Cubs over D-Backs (+125) $14.76 to win $18.45 (no action)
    Last edited by keel44; 07-23-13 at 05:27 PM.
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  11. 07-23-13 01:19 AM #11
    Jefferey13
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    This doesn't make any sense to me. It's just a play on the martingale system. You have no reason for your picks and you give no precedence to good or bad picks. It seems like fun, just doesn't seem smart.
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  12. 07-23-13 05:13 PM #12
    keel44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jefferey13 View Post
    This doesn't make any sense to me. It's just a play on the martingale system. You have no reason for your picks and you give no precedence to good or bad picks. It seems like fun, just doesn't seem smart.

    "Press when your hot, chase when your not" that is the motto I gamble by. I press my winnings into higher profits, and I chase my losses with the hope of catching fire. It all works together. Eventually, any average Joe bettor will catch fire enough to bolt ahead in profits.

    All of my systems show this. My overall win percentage for all my strategies, I know, is a little under 50% with juiced odds as well. Yet, I am well ahead with low draw downs. This is because I use "house" money to leap a head with profits. I also chase my net losses slightly, with the hopes of catching a little fire.

    Martingale? no not even close. What I do is very smart---VERY. I wish more people could see that. I believe in all of my picks. It is researched. I know my sports and I know risk/reward. I shouldn't have to give a write-up or anything--- just solid average picks, that's all you need.
    Points Awarded:

    FearTheBeard gave keel44 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.

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  13. 07-23-13 05:28 PM #13
    keel44
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    Series C - Bet #5: Phillies over Cardinals (+200) $12 to win $24
    Series A - Bet #2: Royals -1.5 over Orioles (+180) $14.76 to win $26.57
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  14. 07-23-13 05:34 PM #14
    Semper Fidelis
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    Hey there Keel, very intriguing system you have here! I think I understand it, and will possibly start tailing soon. Just a little bit of advice though, you might have better reception from other people if you keep an updated record of how many units and stuff you are up. Not trying to tell you how to run your thread or anything buddy, just a suggestion! Best of luck on these wagers tonight my friend!
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  15. 07-23-13 05:44 PM #15
    Jefferey13
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    Quote Originally Posted by keel44 View Post
    "Press when your hot, chase when your not" that is the motto I gamble by. I press my winnings into higher profits, and I chase my losses with the hope of catching fire. It all works together. Eventually, any average Joe bettor will catch fire enough to bolt ahead in profits.

    All of my systems show this. My overall win percentage for all my strategies, I know, is a little under 50% with juiced odds as well. Yet, I am well ahead with low draw downs. This is because I use "house" money to leap a head with profits. I also chase my net losses slightly, with the hopes of catching a little fire.

    Martingale? no not even close. What I do is very smart---VERY. I wish more people could see that. I believe in all of my picks. It is researched. I know my sports and I know risk/reward. I shouldn't have to give a write-up or anything--- just solid average picks, that's all you need.
    There is no betting strategy that will work in any type of gambling (when referring to the amount wagered) that I know of. To come out on top you have to know your expected EV, or an idea where it will be, and then play to the correct side of the line. That's all my issue is, you can bet any amount, you can chase all you want and it doesn't change your odds of winning or losing.

    Yes using a betting strategy can be smart for bankroll management and reducing the risk the ruin, but it won't help you be profitable.

    I would just be interested to know why you choose the lines you do, because the amount you choose to bet is inconsequential.

    If I'm wrong, please correct me.
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  16. 07-24-13 02:51 AM #16
    keel44
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    Series C - Bet #5: Phillies over Cardinals (+200) $12 to win $24
    Series A - Bet #2: Royals -1.5 over Orioles (+180) $14.76 to win $26.57

    These lost. A run in the ninth got me. The Series C will now have a 40% increase to $16.80. Series A drops down to $12 and Series B holds still at $12.

    My net gain so far is only $7.68. (5-6) overall. Very Low drawdowns. Only 5 days in, however.
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  17. 07-24-13 03:43 AM #17
    keel44
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jefferey13 View Post
    There is no betting strategy that will work in any type of gambling (when referring to the amount wagered) that I know of. To come out on top you have to know your expected EV, or an idea where it will be, and then play to the correct side of the line. That's all my issue is, you can bet any amount, you can chase all you want and it doesn't change your odds of winning or losing.

    Yes using a betting strategy can be smart for bankroll management and reducing the risk the ruin, but it won't help you be profitable.

    I would just be interested to know why you choose the lines you do, because the amount you choose to bet is inconsequential.

    If I'm wrong, please correct me.

    I believe you are right in respect to having an edge. That is why sports betting can be profitable. Games with an edge are out there, it is just consistently finding them, that present a problem. My hats off to the rare group of people who can flat bet their way to consistent profits.


    A flat money bettor needs to hit a certain win percentage, given the odds, stretched out over time. Some bettors risk more on games they feel more "confident" in. These bettors must also hit a certain win percentage on "those" wagers to turn a profit. These bettors must have an edge most of the time to turn out a profit.

    I choose to attack in a different way. I am looking for lightning in a bottle so to speak. My money management strategies open myself up to choosing wagers that best fit what I need to accomplish to make profits in accordance to my money management.

    I am counting on logical knowledge of the sport and logical knowledge of risk/reward to basically not lose. What I mean by that is, I am looking for just average results. I am part of the 99 percentile of gamblers who don't have an edge and can't consistently find one. I choose games knowing that eventually I will "get hot" enough to bolt ahead in profits because I use "house" money as the catalyst.

    Consider this hypothetical scenario: Suppose I bet on all the home teams ATS in week 1 of the NFL regular season. I can reasonably expect to get at least 4 of the 16 correct. Let us say I take the winning dollar amounts of those 4 wins and make 1 two-team parlay ATS in week 2. If I win that parlay, I make up a lot of the losses. If I lose that parlay, I will raise the stakes and bet on all of the home teams ATS in week 3 to repeat the process. I am looking for a two-teamer to hit and make my winnings grow enough to turn a profit.

    I am "chasing" the "pressing scenario". I am letting random wins give me a little seed with the hopes to produce a flower. The "pressing scenario" is the lightning. The "chasing" is the bottle. My picks need be the ingredients.
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  18. 07-24-13 11:48 AM #18
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #3: White Sox over Tigers (+123) $12 to win $14.76
    Series B - Bet #1: Phillies over Cardinals (+152) $12 to win $18.24
    Series C - Bet #1: Cubs over D-Backs (+125) $16.80 to win $21.00
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  19. 07-25-13 01:15 AM #19
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #3: White Sox over Tigers (+123) $12 to win $14.76
    Series B - Bet #1: Phillies over Cardinals (+152) $12 to win $18.24
    Series C - Bet #1: Cubs over D-Backs (+125) $16.80 to win $21.00
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  20. 07-25-13 11:19 AM #20
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #1: Dodgers -1.5 over Reds (+180) $16.80 to win $30.24
    Series B - Bet #1: Phillies over Cardinals (+160) $16.80 to win $26.88
    Series C - Bet #2: Rockies -1.5 over Marlins (+110) $21 to win $23.10
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  21. 07-26-13 02:04 AM #21
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #1: Dodgers -1.5 over Reds (+180) $16.80 to win $30.24
    Series B - Bet #1: Phillies over Cardinals (+160) $16.80 to win $26.88
    Series C - Bet #2: Rockies -1.5 over Marlins (+110) $21 to win $23.10

    I suck right now
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  22. 07-26-13 02:11 AM #22
    Jefferey13
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    Quote Originally Posted by keel44 View Post
    I believe you are right in respect to having an edge. That is why sports betting can be profitable. Games with an edge are out there, it is just consistently finding them, that present a problem. My hats off to the rare group of people who can flat bet their way to consistent profits.


    A flat money bettor needs to hit a certain win percentage, given the odds, stretched out over time. Some bettors risk more on games they feel more "confident" in. These bettors must also hit a certain win percentage on "those" wagers to turn a profit. These bettors must have an edge most of the time to turn out a profit.

    I choose to attack in a different way. I am looking for lightning in a bottle so to speak. My money management strategies open myself up to choosing wagers that best fit what I need to accomplish to make profits in accordance to my money management.

    I am counting on logical knowledge of the sport and logical knowledge of risk/reward to basically not lose. What I mean by that is, I am looking for just average results. I am part of the 99 percentile of gamblers who don't have an edge and can't consistently find one. I choose games knowing that eventually I will "get hot" enough to bolt ahead in profits because I use "house" money as the catalyst.

    Consider this hypothetical scenario: Suppose I bet on all the home teams ATS in week 1 of the NFL regular season. I can reasonably expect to get at least 4 of the 16 correct. Let us say I take the winning dollar amounts of those 4 wins and make 1 two-team parlay ATS in week 2. If I win that parlay, I make up a lot of the losses. If I lose that parlay, I will raise the stakes and bet on all of the home teams ATS in week 3 to repeat the process. I am looking for a two-teamer to hit and make my winnings grow enough to turn a profit.

    I am "chasing" the "pressing scenario". I am letting random wins give me a little seed with the hopes to produce a flower. The "pressing scenario" is the lightning. The "chasing" is the bottle. My picks need be the ingredients.
    I appreciate the response, but I don't think it in anyways negates my response. The key to your betting method is still the actual picks at the end of the day. I would argue that it doesn't matter if you use your parlay method or not, it really makes no difference. The only difference is the picks. If your betting method actually made a difference, then I could effectively back test it on any random games of my choosing.

    But we both know that won't work because you currently have no means for choosing which teams to bet. You are just chasing. I would encourage you to forget the betting strategy and concentrate on the strategy for the picks you make, because it doesn't matter how much you bet, it doesn't change your odds.
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  23. 07-26-13 02:52 PM #23
    keel44
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    Series C - Bet #3: Orioles -0.5 FF over Red Sox (+125) $16.80 to win $21
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  24. 07-26-13 07:10 PM #24
    keel44
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    Alright! I have discovered a magic formula for +odds betting. My underdog system will now start to take off. Remember that the picks need to fit the money management strategy, and my picks will do just that.

    Here we go!
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  25. 07-26-13 07:48 PM #25
    keel44
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    Series C - Bet #3: Orioles -0.5 FF over Red Sox (+125) $16.80 to win $21

    stay tuned
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  26. 07-26-13 07:57 PM #26
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #1: Dodgers -1.5 over Reds (+118) $23.52 to win $27.75
    Series B - Bet #1: Padres over D-Backs (+130) $23.52 to win $30.58
    Series C - Bet #4: A's -1.5 over Angels (+115) $21 to win $24.15
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  27. 07-27-13 12:35 AM #27
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #1: Dodgers -1.5 over Reds (+118) $23.52 to win $27.75
    Series B - Bet #1: Padres over D-Backs (+130) $23.52 to win $30.58
    Series C - Bet #4: A's -1.5 over Angels (+115) $21 to win $24.15

    I am currently down $51.81, but I am confident in a recovery.




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  28. 07-27-13 10:50 AM #28
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #1: Dodgers -1.5 over Reds (+165) $32.93 to win $54.33
    Series B - Bet #1: Padres -1 over D-Backs (+134) $32.93 to win $44.05
    Series C - Bet #5: White Sox -1.5 over Royals (+125) $24.15 to win $30.19
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  29. 07-28-13 12:28 AM #29
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #1: Dodgers -1.5 over Reds (+165) $32.93 to win $54.33
    Series B - Bet #1: Padres -1 over D-Backs (+134) $32.93 to win $44.05
    Series C - Bet #5: White Sox -1.5 over Royals (+125) $24.15 to win $30.19

    I am now up $22.42.

    I will now reset all but the C series. I will continue 1 more attempt on that. Win or lose, I will reset. So small draw downs and an overall record of (10-14) make me a modest profit of $22.42 so far. Not too bad given my record.
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  30. 07-28-13 12:31 AM #30
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #1: Yankees Score 1st (+155) $12 to win $18.60
    Series B - Bet #1: Rangers -1.5 over Indians (+145) $12 to win $17.40
    Series C - Bet #6: White Sox -1.5 over Royals (+175) $21 to win $36.75
    Last edited by keel44; 07-28-13 at 11:43 AM.
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  31. 07-28-13 12:37 PM #31
    keel44
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    A winner already nice call by me
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  32. 07-28-13 11:48 PM #32
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #1: Yankees Score 1st (+155) $12 to win $18.60
    Series B - Bet #1: Rangers -1.5 over Indians (+145) $12 to win $17.40
    Series C - Bet #6: White Sox -1.5 over Royals (+175) $21 to win $36.75
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  33. 07-29-13 09:17 AM #33
    keel44
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    Series C - Bet #7: Cardinals over Pirates (+135) $16.80 to win $22.68
    Series B - Bet #1: Blue Jays over A's (+145) $16.80 to win $24.36
    Series A - Bet #2: Red Sox over Rays (+115) $18.60 to win $21.39
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  34. 07-30-13 01:21 AM #34
    keel44
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    Series C - Bet #7: Cardinals over Pirates (+135) $16.80 to win $22.68
    Series B - Bet #1: Blue Jays over A's (+145) $16.80 to win $24.36
    Series A - Bet #2: Red Sox over Rays (+115) $18.60 to win $21.39

    11-19 (36.67%) I am down $44.18. not too big of a deal, I'll recover
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  35. 07-30-13 11:00 AM #35
    keel44
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    Series A - Bet #3: Astros over Orioles (+225) $12 to win $27
    Series B - Bet #1: Blue Jays over A's (+137) $23.52 to win $32.22
    Series C - Bet #1: Angels over Rangers (+131) $23.52 to win $30.81
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