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6/14/13 UPDATE
RL 1.0 Plays
CWS -1.5 2u
Det -1.5 4u
Atl -1.5 4u
Bal -1.5 4u
Atl -1.5 2u
Stl -1.5 2u
Stl -1.5 2u
Bos -1.5 2u
Phi -1.5 2u
TB -1.5 2u
Tex -1.5 2u
Tex -1.5 2u
Tex -1.5 2u
Cin -1.5 1u
Col -1.5 1u
NYM -1.5 1u
TB -1.5 1u
Cle -1.5 1u
RL 2.0 Plays
Atl -1.5 8u
Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3
Blog: mlbchasing.blogspot.com
Mmmkay. Let me interject
Systems doing good but perhaps it did too good in the past week . Leaving now gets you your profit. But thenwhat?
I think two things can be done to minimize exposure 1 decrease unit size. Home games -1
If this system makes money long term no reason to shut it down. Just because of a good and bad streak
I've definitely mentioned a couple times to try a 1/2-1-2-4 unit strategy to bring down a series loss from 15 to 7.5 units...
We'd have to go on a pretty terrible streak for this system to tank...my faith remains strong
Sam I'm not sure if u overlooked this or not
Home favor win 4266 out of 7139 games 59%
With a 70.1% rl win. This becomes 41.7% win
Now if you get 2.4 for odds on the -1.5 rl. U will break even
On an overall average .
That's a general overview. I'll type more when I get home I'm on my mobile
I'm on my phone as well, but I started running the numbers for April through June and they don't look that different...so why wouldn't the 2nd half of the season be just as successful as the first half?
A comparison between April-June and July-Sept from 2003-2012
From 2003-2012, for the months of April, June, and July:
Home Favorites: 4109-2956 overall; cover the -1.5 RL 68.3
Home Dogs: 1456-1670 overall; cover the -1.5 RL 65.7
Road Favorites: 1669-1453 overall; cover the -1.5 RL 78.1%
Road Dogs: 2957-4110 overall; cover the -1.5 RL 73.3%
From 2003-2012, for the months of July, August, and September:
Home Favorites: 4266-2873 overall; cover the -1.5 RL 70.7%
Home Dogs: 1486-1955 overall; cover the -1.5 RL 62.6%
Road Favorites: 1954-1486 overall; cover the -1.5 RL 78.8%
Road Dogs: 2874-4267 overall; cover the -1.5 RL 74.2%
Awww crap....got caught up doing stuff today....guess iwas thinking earlier post was final card....I missed a bunch of plays.....oh well what can ya do ?
Geez can somebody please come back and win a game for us.
Both Texas and ATL .. both supposed to be huge favorites . don't score a run.
its pretty interesting.
I just know other thread you worried you didn't have enough time...
not quite sure i understand your english.
owell .. don't bother looking at the score boards.. today will not be a good day. hopefully your units are in check
it seems quite astonishing .. that all almost all the heavy favorites failed epicly
Im calling it quits on Texas..just hasn't been the same team since Kinsler got hurt. If Beltre and Cruz dont hit home runs, they cant score consistently.Originally Posted by illisdre
As for Atlanta... they just ran into pitcher who was on tonite. It happens.
Think I'm taking my ball and going home.
I'm hoping things are going to turn around here... I've lost Beck almost everything that I want in this thread
Sorry 5ablets suck for forums
Good vibes good vibes good vibes
Not for anything, but does anyone really care if someone isn't going to follow this thread anymore. if you don't have a proper BR to run a chase and you don't use Kelly to adjust your unit size, you are going to bust out.
Here's to some good vibes ... lets get them tonight!
Good work Sam!
not sure if your taking the day off sam..
I kinda figured i would. playing a little bit of the plays that lost yesterday... but at a meaningless unit size.
i think 1 thing that may be a problem with the system Sam, is that we might have too many games.
because if we have 40 units worth of games in one day.. and the day turns out to be a day when every game is within 1 run.. it can spell disaster. I know it shouldn't make a difference whether its one day or not.. but it atleast lets you judge where you're at better.
I think of filtering, and I actually normally do filter the games somewhat anyways. If i think its possibly a low scoring game,, i might take the -1. particularly home games. -1 sucks for odds. but it does prevent a full loss.
If a team like LAD comes up as a pick, i might not play them or play them half size depending. certain teams I don't trust to win big!
(That said sometimes my filtering totally backfires, like remember the Houston game... but its tough laying 8 units on Houston)
The last problem i forsee, is sometimes a team will have a bad streak, and when the break that bad streak... they barely break it.. meaning a close score.. Lets say LAA loses A, B, C and they win D because the other team doesnt score and its a "close game"
Anyways just thoughts. I hope we can all see some results.
I've been meaning to mention a suggestion as well. Yesterday we had 3 2u plays for Texas. Instead of having 3 different 2u plays, should we consider consolidating those plays into something like 1 play of 3u (where game 1 would have been a 1.5u play)? I feel like having numerous chases on the same team at the same game point (ie. 3 game 2's) is a recipe for disaster at some point.
6/16/13
TDK RL 1.0 Record: 227-19, +277.57u
1.0 Record since tracking began: 139-13, +133.6u
6/14/13 UPDATE
RL 1.0 Plays
CWS -1.5 2u LOSS
Det -1.5 4u WINNER +1.8u
Atl -1.5 4u LOSS
Bal -1.5 4u WINNER +4u
Atl -1.5 2u LOSS
Stl -1.5 2u LOSS
Stl -1.5 2u LOSS
Bos -1.5 2u LOSS
Phi -1.5 2u LOSS
TB -1.5 2u LOSS
Tex -1.5 2u LOSS
Tex -1.5 2u LOSS
Tex -1.5 2u LOSS
Cin -1.5 1u LOSS
Col -1.5 1u LOSS
NYM -1.5 1u LOSS
TB -1.5 1u LOSS
Cle -1.5 1u LOSS
RL 2.0 Plays
Atl -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
6/16/13
TDK RL 1.0 Record: 233-20, +269.78u
1.0 Record since tracking began: 145-14, +125.81u
6/15/13 RECAP
RL 1.0 Plays
CWS -1.5 4u LOSS
Atl -1.5 8u LOSS -15u
Atl -1.5 4u LOSS
Stl -1.5 4u WINNER +.44u
Stl -1.5 4u WINNER +.44u
Bos -1.5 4u LOSS
Phi -1.5 4u LOSS
TB -1.5 4u WINNER +2u
Tex -1.5 4u LOSS
Tex -1.5 4u LOSS
Tex -1.5 4u LOSS
Cin -1.5 2u LOSS
Col -1.5 2u WINNER +1.58u
NYM -1.5 2u LOSS
TB -1.5 2u WINNER +1.5u
Cle -1.5 2u LOSS
Bos -1.5 1u LOSS
CWS -1.5 1u LOSS
TB -1.5 1u WINNER +1.25u
Oak -1.5 1u LOSS
6/16/13
Here is today's card:
CWS -1.5 8u
Atl -1.5 8u
Bos -1.5 8u
Phi -1.5 8u
Tex -1.5 8u(x3)
Cin -1.5 4u
NYM -1.5 4u
Cle -1.5 4u
Bos -1.5 2u
CWS -1.5 2u
Oak -1.5 2u
Thoughts: wow, brutal weekend. My roll has already been chopped in half and it doesn't look like things are going to get any better today. I might just take the day off and start thinking about which series I want to play going forward...naturally, if I do that, every single series will win today.
I agree with the multiple series on one team- from now on I will just make one series out of it. Also, I am personally going to apply my 2 filters to my own plays- the team must be .500 or better and must have a positive run differential. That would have eliminated CWS, Phi, NYM, Cle. I will make note of which series do/do not qualify under these filters for all series beginning today and on.
Spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...tMGcxSnc#gid=3
Blog: http://mlbchasing.blogspot.com/
Last edited by samrock67; 06-16-13 at 09:02 AM.
Hey, just wanted to clarify, I wasn't bashing the system or the validity. I'm actually thankful for it as I've made a bunch in a span of 1 month but I was simply stating the natural flows of gambling, regardless of a system or whatever. I was just making the observation that sustaining the win rate that this system has shown (+270 units in 2 1/2 months) seems like highly unlikely over a long duration. I'm sorry if it came off negative. GL to any and all and I hope the system kicks ass the rest of the way.
lol...5 Game 4 losses already(I don't see Texas scoring 9+ runs)...I guess the people who said to hop off were right
Glad I didn't place any bets today...
Definitely would like some input going forward, though...like what do people think about a .500 and positive run differential filter? how about an RPI filter also?
i dont even know anymore lol. i know you said you stopped stifler's chase awhile back, or at least i think you did. what was your reasoning for that?
The backtested numbers he posts are in no way indicative of how the season should pan out. Teams and pitchers change from year to year and I think the numbers give you a false sense of how profitable his system is or can be.
Does he not change the teams/pitchers that he chases/chase fades based on those changes?
I'm not sure man.
I love -1.5 RL. I like the concept of your system.
I just think the inevitable you'll hit streaks that wreak havoc.
Its really weird though, because .. most of these games are RL winners,,, its just seems like were always on the wrong side.!
It's fair to say that streaks are going to happen...I just think I have to be more selective of which series I play...that being said, anything can happen, but I think there's merit in applying certain filters. Going forward I am going to list the schedule as usual, but I am definitely going to make note of which series I like and don't like. This will be based on home/away, RPI, run differential, runs scored, and pitching matchups. Obviously, even taking all of those into consideration there are still going to be times when bad streaks happen(look at Texas this weekend), but I think we can make educated selections.
I think that -1.5 RL is begging to be taken advantage of...we just have to figure out how.
Maybe you can try some stuff like not playing teams that are on a losing streak or teams that are below .500 in their last 10 games.
What happen to the 2.0?
Skip game one and use a 3 game chase. Reduces number of plays and saves units. Looking at the spreadsheet should confirm.
Looks like TDK is taking a break for a while on this, possibly for the season.
Ok guys...TDK's shutting down for the interim...here are some options:
1) Re-boot 2.0(me picking games based on pitching matchups, home/away, run differential, RPI, other factors...we can decide together what factors are most important
2) any of the various systems out there-
b2w's RPI- I haven't been following but this was one system that TDK mentioned to me a long time ago that is profitable year in and year out.
Cisco- has a Home Favorite, Under .470, and 5-run system. The 5-run system produces the most games. I have an interesting method of playing that system if people are interested
3) A combination of the above. I'm also open to any suggestions, so let's hear em.
posting update next
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