Upon recommendation from a number of members in TDK's thread and permission from TheDarkKnigh01(a thousand thanks), I will be using this thread to keep track of TheDarkKnight01's Chase system's performance on the RL and posting plays for those who are interested.
For those of you who bet "to win" 1 unit, this will save you money on your chases. Significant money.
For those of you who bet a certain amount per game and ignore unit size, this could turn out to be very profitable.
USE THIS SYSTEM AT YOUR OWN RISK. This system has not been backtested, nor will it be because I don't have access to the systems that TDK uses and I don't plan to ask him. This thread is solely for the purpose of monitoring how the system does on the RL. If you choose to use these bets instead of or in addition to TDK's plays, please do so at your own risk. I cannot yet vouch for the efficacy of this system. We will see how things pan out in 2013.
TDK's thread can be found here:
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...ts-2012-a.html
The idea here is simple- all of TDK's bets are ML or RL +1.5 bets. When the team you are betting on wins, under TDK's system, the series is over. With this system, the series is only over if the team covers the -1.5 RL. If they do not, the chase proceeds until they do. Since this is pretty much a repeat of TDK's system, each series will be a 4-game chase. I will only be tracking TDK's 4-game chases and NOT his 3-game chases
Lines will be based on the book I use, which is 5Dimes.
I will try to post plays as early as possible, but please bear in mind that any new series will depend on TDK posting in his chase thread, which thankfully, he is very good about.
Again, thanks to TDK for permission to go ahead with this.
Betting Strategy
I have found that instead of chasing to win 1 unit per series, using a 1-2-4-8 betting strategy has proved to be the most profitable when playing on the RL. The bets are as follows
Game 1: Risk 1u
Game 2: Risk 2u
Game 3: Risk 4u
Game 4: Risk 8u
So, if your unit size was $10, your individual bets would be $10-$20-$40-$80
Based on this, the most you stand to lose in a series is 15 units. If you want to play this smaller, you can go .5-1-2-4, and each loss will only hit for a loss of 7.5 units. The idea is to minimize loss and maximize profit.
This is what a sample card will look like:
5/5/13
#91: Giants -1.5 1u
#92: Phillies -1.5 1u
#93: Brewers -1.5 1u
#94: Yankees -1.5 1u
I may or may not list the odds for each game, haven't decided yet.
One thing you need to bear in mind is that the main difference in this system is that we will basically be taking the team that begins a series with TDK and tailing them on the -1.5 RL for their next 4 games. This is different from TDK's systems, which I'm sure have a mix of home/road chases as well as fades. In his system, the team may change from bet to bet. In this system it WILL NOT.
Here are the current numbers for this system:
TDK System Record: 82-2, +1.22 units(I'm not sure of this, will have to double check with TDK)
TDK RL Record: 81-4 +153.87 units
I really hope this system continues to see profit in the manner that it has, but I can't be certain. I do think that it will be profitable by season's end.
Best of luck to all those who decide to tail! Will start with tomorrow's Game 1 bets.
P.S. I am unable to post Saturday games because I work weekends, so if someone would be kind enough to post on Saturdays, it would be greatly appreciated. Thanks.