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I'm looking forward to your posts this year, man. Keep it consistent and you could develop quite the following.
The only concern I have with the over chase is that with two losses you could be out 50+ units and three could almost wipe out your bankroll in the first week. Did you use this last year?
Thanks caleb, I'll try. This is the first year I will be personally playing it, but I do plan on playing it for half of my normal amount. If there's a chase I'm not comfortable with continuing, I may decide to stop the chase and eat the losses.Originally Posted by calebepley93
Do you have individual records available for each game of each chase?
For example:
chase #1 went 88-1
bet A was 50-39
bet B was 25-14
bet C was 9-5
bet D was 4-1
if you're still not sure what I mean, you could reference post #4 in Stifler's thread.
if you don't have the info readily available, don't worry about it.
best of luck!
Sorry, my organizational skills need much fine tuning since I primarily wrote on paper and didn't track that, only units won. This season will be much better since I'll be posting regularly and will be tracking for many of us and I will track that this season. Thanks and good luck!
I can finally see light at the end of the tunnel...Opening Day is right around the corner!!!
I looked at 2006 - 2012. !st 5 games over. It went 180 - 1
Kc lost in 2009.
I also looked at last 6 games of the season for the over. 6 games because of the push. Many teams lost, so dont do it.
Im also looking into the last 6 games for the under. Ill get back to you on that.
Good info. where you getting the data from?
Sounds interesting
Ill keep an eye out
So we starting with the 5 game Over chase? Thinking about hopping along with a tiny unit size to build up a bankroll (and trust) for when baseball season is in full swing with this chase and stifler's
TDK, just to clarify for tomorrow we have 1 game between TEX & HOU and are we going to do 2 separate chases? TEX for the game to go o8.5 and HOU also for the game to go o8.5?
You beat me to it skyscrapers. I think that is the plan also cause otherwise somebody would have had only one game. I put it in already with 5 dimes earlier at -105 and then they came back with a number of 8.5 at even money
Pinny is at +106
I believe we are doing individual overs so it would be (per 5dimes lines):
Tex O 4.5(-115)
Hou O 3.5(+105)
Thanks for checking in guys, here's the plays for the O/U Chase: Also as a reminder, I'm personally going 1/2 the unit size on the over and am tracking the under only (which means I am not personally playing the under but will post to track). I want to avoid any confusion here.
Over Chase:
Tex/Hou Over 8.5 Even for 2u (1 unit for Tex over and 1 unit for Hou over)
Under Chase
Tex/Hou Under 8.5 -120 2u
Good luck!!
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Thx TDK
TDK-
I'm confused. Are we betting on the individual overs(4.5 for Tex and 3.5 for Hou) or on the combined over(8.5) twice?
We're betting on the combined over of 8.5 twice. Good luck.
Vinnie and Samrock - no team totals, just game total over 8.5. I hope that helps.
I believe:
Rangers team over
Astros team over
full game over
There are no team totals involved whatsoever in this chase.
We are chasing the game total over for 5 games per team.
So we chase TEX game total & HOU game total essentially putting in the bet twice.
But since TDK will play 0.5 unit I think he should have stated 0.5 on TEX & 0.5 on HOU for 1 unit total.
By the way for every single unit won I will give you TDK 1 point at the end of the season.
Season gonna start today, much anticipated excitement, besides we being sports fans, bottom line is to make $$$$
Not really a math person, but just gonna put some numbers out there.
As for the OVER chase, it is a 5 game chase.
Lets say that the odds are between -130 to +130 for each game on average.
I will use -110 as example;
A Bet: risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit
B Bet: risk 2.31 units to win 2.1 units [the lost amount on A Bet (1.10u) + 1 unit]
C Bet: risk 4.85 units to win 4.41 units [the lost amount on A Bet (1.10u) + B Bet (2.31u) + 1 unit]
D Bet: risk 10.19 units to win 9.26 units [the lost amount on A Bet (1.10u) + B Bet (2.31u) + C Bet (4.85u) + 1 unit]
E Bet: risk 21.39 units to win 19.45 units [the lost amount on A Bet (1.10u) + B Bet (2.31u) + C Bet (4.85u) + D Bet (10.19u) + 1 unit]
So losing a E Bet can cost 39.84 units. And there is 30 teams.
Anyways, not to put negative thoughts out there, just saying.
BOL TDK on the upcoming season and thanks for the hard work.
Now lets bring in that $$$$
One thing of note, I think because this is a chase system whoever is pitching is irrelevant therefore we should bet 'action' instead of 'listed pitchers' just in case if a pitcher is changed last minute and the over hits then unfortunately your bet is voided and your chase is screwed.
GL to all
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I have a question.
So tonight we bet Texas/Over and Houston/Over. If the under hits, we do it again tomorrow etc.
The question: If the over HITS then we stop betting on Texas and Houston games in this 5-game over chase UNLESS the fourth game is played against a team that has not hit an over yet? Is that the logic here?
i hate to put a negative light on anything, as thedarkknight has been nothing but helpful and honest thusfar..
BUT, just a word of advice.. from prior experience, if you plan to tail anyone (esp. someone unproven) on a big chase system that can cripple your bankroll, tread EXTREMELY lightly at least for the first half of the season, if not the whole season. I have seen too many guys come on this site promoting the next best system and claiming to have these insane winning percentages.. and then a few weeks later have crashed and burned...
The numbers he claims no doubt seem amazing-- we would all kill to acheive those numbers... but are they truly "unreal" as they seem? we have noway of knowing as he is not showing the theory behind his plays.. so without that information, all we have to go on is trust in a guy that none of us has ever met and has just joined the site recently.
So just a word of advise.. be careful making plays and risking a huge portion of your roll on just trust alone. There are other systems on this forum that have been thoroughly backtested and thoroughly explained (and being ran by creditble posters).
Not to hate on the OP at all, as like I said, he seems like a good guy with great intentions.. but just trying to shed some light on the reality of the situation. He has given us nothing to back up these crazy numbers.. so be careful is all I can say..
With that said.. BOL this season. I wish this thread nothing but amazing success
Another question for the system
Let's say I bet 1 unit on Tex/Over and 1 unit on Houston/Over.
Texas/Over pays +185, Houston/Over pays +322
They go under. Damn. Day 2...
Bet 2 units (1 for today, 1 for loss yesterday) on Tex/Over and another 2 units on Houston/Over (1 for today, 1 for loss yesterday)
Let's assume the odds are the same (+185 and +322). If Texas Wins, I'll receive $3.70 for my 2 unit wager.
3.70 - 2.00 for the wager the same day is $1.70 - $2.00 for bets on the previous day is $-.30
So even though the teams eventually won, I lost money. I'm messing something up in the math along the way. Help me out?
Or am I not supposed to be parlaying them? I just keep betting the -110 for the team, just not WITH the team attached to the bet.
Nevermind, answered own question.
Lol yeah don't bet them as a parlay! It's simply 2 bets on the same over, representing a chase for each team. Once the over hits, the over chase for both of those teams essentially ends, and we start with the other teams. Here's to the start of the season DK! Let the cash flow commence!
Meh. Not liking this Over chase, too much going on at once with too big of a risk. Lots of bankroll going out to hope for a clean 30-0 sweep because 1 loss will be a net loss.
I'll stick to it with a tiny unit size for the opening game only though
Can't wait for the real system plays though.
So with 30 teams we can get +30 units and one loss is around 40 units .. Doesnt sounds good. 1 loss and we losing money!
whoa, lots of comments on Opening Night...let me try and address all of them:
Skyscrapers, ahh you're right, I should have noted that a little better. Since I went ahead of noted 2u with the O/U chase, going forward, I'll just go ahead and continuing noting it that way but in parenthesis state that I'll be playing it for half of the regular amount.
Jellybeans, thanks for the analysis. That is correct if one loses it'll be approximately a 40 unit loss, causing for the system to be at a negative. I did state earlier though that if I'm not liking a particular play I will stop the chase and eat the losses in hopes of bringing in a net profit for this chase. After all, it's only week 1 and it'll be a LONG season with lots of plays, so no need to get carried away right off the bat. It is a lot of risk however it's proven to be profitable in the past 5 years so that's why I decided to post it so that others can hopefully profit as well.
Skyscrapers, thanks for pointing out to bet "ACTION" on the plays. That will hold true for all of the chase systems, it will not matter who's on the mound for what day, system plays are system plays. That's the beauty of system plays, no overanalyzing or overthinking anything, we simply play what the system tells us to play regardless of who's pitching or who's resting that game. It can be a good or bad thing depending on how you look at it.
kcava, if that's the case, one of the teams still have not hit a over so we'll still be betting on the over since one of the teams still have not gotten one thus far. I hope that helps.
dlunc3, very well said and a very valid point. I mentioned it in my original post but I think people (including myself) got a little caught up with the potential profits. It may be a good idea to track for a while or tread lightly until the systems are proven. I myself have been victim of following the wrong people before so I definitely know where you're coming from. For what it's worth, I'm going to post and do my thing but it'll ultimately be up to people to follow, fade, or track. I have emphasized money management throughout this thread and would like to do so again since it's one of the most important things for cappers. The last thing I want is for someone to put the house on this and it ends up losing. With that said, I am eager to prove the systems work and hopefully we can all profit from this.
Good luck everyone!
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Cisco's 3 chase systems over on Covers were up +250 units as well. That is strange. The rules for those 3 chase systems can be found at covers.com. There is no secret crap over there. I've been using them for years. Guess we know where Dark Knight did all of his work.
Wow, plays haven't even been posted yet and I'm already being accused of copying one of the most popular chase artists in the game. Absolutely LOVE being accused of something without any sort of proof or evidence.
Anyway, I challenge you to compare my plays to his. Once you realize you're wrong, I hope you learn something.
Keep postin Dark Knight... room is always full of haters
Why would you come into someone else's thread just to attack them? Did you even read any of DK's posts at all??? He has at least 6 different chases, not 3. Could it not be coincidence that they just happened to end up with 250 units of profit last year? What's more, if DK does not wish to disclose his systems, what does it matter? It's not like he's some tout charging us for plays or anything. He's simply posting plays to help people make money. Why are there so many negative people on this forum? DK didn't come in gloating and bragging about "locks" or any other crap, or beg and tell people to follow him. Let him post his plays for his systems, then you can compare. Lets try to keep the negativity out of this thread-remember we're all in this together, all trying to make money.
DK just ignore the haters, you will see them no matter if you win or lose. Just know there are far more people that appreciate what you're doing to help out!
SHIP the over in the Astros/Rangers game!
Over is a winner. Nice to start the season with a win.
Recap Over Chase:
TEX/HOU Over 8.5 WINNER
2-0, +100 (I play this chase as $50/unit)
Recap Under Chase:
TEX/HOU Under 8.5 Loser (on to game 2 of the chase on 4/2/2013)
Will be back to post tomorrow's plays around 9am Pacific time, although it will be a relatively easy post (2 units on the over for every game. For the under chase it will be 2 units on the under for every game.)
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laca07 gave TheDarkKnight01 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.