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I'm sorry for those that tailed my STL pick which was capped. Looking back I still am amazed that they got swept. ATL was just the better team throughout that whole series... Will get it back.. Slowly.. No need to rush, thats how you lose in this system. With that said:
5/14:
Official: WAS, TEX, CLE, LAD
NYM is a play by B2W but I am staying away from the "A" game.
gl
Last edited by mac miller; 05-13-12 at 10:23 PM.
arent all 4 two game series?
The RPI system itself is starting to really form together. My handicap plays and filters are starting to have the same outcome. Expect just more official plays further on.
Oh yeah it is I got it confused with something else they were doing with TEX .. chasing the previous games with the LAA. My bad.. Its corrected nowOriginally Posted by dlunc3
What does (texas 2gm) mean? Sorry for sounding like such a noob
No its fine I messed that up... I still had the same concept that they were running over on Covers with Texas... Basing chasing the L5 games + the 2 v KC
Update:
Official seems to just be TEX and LAD.. Still like CLE (looking at their streak) and WAS at home to win one.. Tail at your own risk.
gl
The last few posts have me confused. TEX and LAD are official plays, even though they're 2 game series? 3 games isn't a filter? Just clarifying, thanks.
Yeah interleague gets played as well with the RPI. a lot more factors involved considering it is only a 2 game series. TEX and LAD are the official plays, CLE and WAS were leans I guess but I capped and filtered these games prior and I have all 4 as plays. A 2 game series can be looked at from different perspectives.. In my opinion it increase the odds of the big favourite team to win "one" and as well since its 2 games, it will cushion any losses.. Theoretically if we lost 1 of 4 of these series, we would almost break even (obviously line plays a factor but considering if its around -140 to -160, etc).
Taking LAD off the board, sorry for those that placed it already but after looking into it a while longer, its just not the best bet to be taking.. Just TEX, CLE, WAS
gl
Nice wins on Wash & Clev. Wish I hadn't cancelled out my LAD bet after I seen you decided against it. Keep up the good work Mac.
Yeah man but to be honest I dont regret it. It just didn't look too good when I capped it and also the main reason was becasue I also did not like their chances for today if they were to lose. Moving on to TEX. good luck
All over Texas today. What is wrong with ST Louis? Do you see a bounce back today?
STL is on my "Watch List" they aren't a play for a while at least.. Will be watching their games and tracking their performance.
good luck this year mac, do you know how many series the rpi system generally generates? Seems like 80 or so series, the idea is a pretty good filter but the original player seems to make a lot of plays from playing the 2nd/3rd games which increases the risk, makes it hard to track all the plays, dont doubt the results though. Cant stand going to that thread, anyone not kissing ass gets their head bitten off, truly not sure why they so damn defensive
Like what you wrote in your posts, esp about money management, def a good tip for all chasers since no matter what filters you put in there may always be a few crazy games during the year and betting a small percentage of your BR is a great idea.
Who'd a thought Texas gets swept by the Royals, at home no less. Oh well, on to the next one.
Some of the stuff on Covers I cant stand. I just put a post in there. People throw out valid points yet it gets disregarded as bashing. The key is money management and I would be lying if I said I wasn't so stressed out and angry about the past week. I am in no way trying to persuade others into putting their whole BR into this but if it helps.. a back track:
2011: 71-2-0 (I THINK.. i have an old document of it so it could be wrong)
2010: 74-1-0
2009: 76-2-0
Given the average line of these favourites we can see each loss is about 10-12 wins. If you play by 3% of your BR you will come out with about a 140-150% ROI. Now, i'm a guy that grew up loving stats in relation towards the stock market so you'll constantly hear me talk about percentages rather than units or dollars. to be honest I hate using "units".
PHI lost (I thankfully only played B/C cause it filtered it out)
STL (my own handicapping fault)
And now we have TEX loss.. People over on Cover's are chasing it in the next 2gm series. I will not however - taking my losses with it and starting a new one.
3 series loss and im still in this with a good 10-15% ROI in a month and a half. Be responsible with your bankroll and I am confident will have a successful season.
What people need to realize is the immense amount of gains that this system can provide so long as you keep out mental factors of breaking the will to bailing out on C games or trying to chase losses in series and going crazy with your BR. I know losing a chase is still a lot investing 3% so use a smaller number if it helps. 1% of your BR can still give you a good 50% ROI in the long run which is still amazing. Its gonna be a grind and I wont be mad if people jump ship or I get bashed on this thread. I know the potential this has and I know when to avoid huge downfalls which is why I like the integration of being able to use this system as a guideline on top of handicapping.
This is getting to be really sad... Unfortunately it was from bettor2win too.....
On Covers:
(My response to bettor2win bashing a member cause he merely stated the losses incurred when trying to win 100$...)
Hes right though B2W, mathematically speaking in a sense if you were playing the 3 games and chasing each one in addition to what you're trying to win from each series.
From what i played:
TEX A (-205) $100
= -205
TEX B (-250) $305
= -762.5
= - $967.5
and so on.
As much as I respect the system and have been doing well minus the past week with some adjustments, he's not "stupid" for putting that much money down. My bankroll is 16,500$. Am I stupid for chasing each series with $500? What you should be asking is what his bankroll is invested into this system and asking what percentage hes risking on each series from it. Money doesn't matter in this, its percentages.
No one should panic. This has backtracked success for over several seasons. Block out the psychological factors that will occur in this and risk a starting bankroll of money you're willing to give up.
Now... bettor2win's response back..
Here's the problem choe20, it's not that he is not correct, but it's the fact he came in attacking and posting negatively. The fact is, WE ALL KNOW THE RISK in chase systems. Especially this one with such high juice. He's not giving us any information we do not understand. He's only here for an argument. What positive thing did he (bigtenwatto) post? Please tell me?
It's not what you say, it's how you say it. If someone comes in here posting negatively, I gotta go to bat for my fellow bettors. I'm starting to hear so much negativity that I'm beginning to wonder if it isn't the covers.com experts trying to get us out of here and into thier pockets. I mean look at you choe20, a new member since 2012 with 19 posts. HMMMM????? So you JUST JUMPED ON BOARD LAST MONTH AND STARTED BLINDLY BETTING THIS SYSTEM? And you saw my mistake of starting the system too early??? That's 2 losses right out the gate and you still follow? Come on. Personally, I would be stupid to just find a system last month, loses 2X and continue on board betting $500 a game at -200 juice, and now you have the experience to write about it? Hell, at least BigTenWatto has been around a while. How much backtesting DO YOU REALLY KNOW? Have you done any? NOPE.
And yes, only bet with money you are willing to lose.
Man, soon I will have the L.A. Times and Wall Street Journal knocking on my door.
Well said, people only look at things night to night for the most part during baseball...nobody really realizes baseball is 4+ months with thousands of options to bet on. Bookmarking your thread to keep checking back in, good luck the rest of the way. Hopefully we'll be on the same page with most of these
TEX "A" ... Highly discourage to chase it as a "C" and to just take last nights loss.
LEAN (most likely wont play): ATL, DET, LAD
LAD "B" is official on Covers but I think SDG has a better shot at winning tonight.
What are your thoughts on NYM tonight? I really like the matchup.
Dont have the time to look into it so no opinion
damn thats a crazy response, to be honest the guys head is too high up in the cloud at this point, his "system" doesnt generate too many series wins, its his side plays that gets him his cash, I get a kick outta the guy since he sounds like he found the magic formula to beat the books, in reality if you look at its really a filter for chasing good teams against bad teams from espn's ranking, which I think somehow he believes belongs to him. Thought he would calm down after two series losses but he just pretended it never happened lol
Anyways, good luck on your picks this year, I like to play series chases so will be tailing on some of your picks throughout the year.
I love the part when he said he's gonna try and copyright it lol.. Oh and btw I do like mets tonight after looking at it a bit.. Playing it just for fun
Made a good call laying off LAD "B"... The benefits of actually putting the work into this system and capping it. TEX hopefully cashes up 1-4 bottom 8th.
Possibly playing LAD at "C1".
gl
Played TEX @ RL(-1) instead of money line. Felt it was too strong a play to lay all that juice. Keep it going Mac!
Cashed TEX "A1" last night.
No play on the Dodgers.. Taking the rest of the week off to get a clear mind and re-adjsut to some changes that I for see coming.
BOL to everyone and their plays.
Back on Monday.
Said I would take the week off but not passing on this one....
Today:
TEX "A1"
gl
Can't find the #'s but Wandy pitches his ass off at home...
Official: TEX, NYY ... Unofficial; ATL .. Leaning to play MIA
Guess this thread is dead
check twitter man....its very alive there
Sticking to posting on Twitter. BOL
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