hey mac.. in what ways is your system like B2Ws? seems like you play a lot more games right?
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05-10-12 11:20 PM #36
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05-10-12 11:28 PM #37
Ok, so if you passed on the "A" game and it lost, do you wager "2" if you play the "b" game of that series? Sorry if I'm mixing things up, I'm a little picky with money management and just wanna make sure. Plus I'm a bit of a newbie at MLB betting, the juice gets so high sometimes that I don't know if I should chase my loss or my initial bet lol
Originally Posted by mac miller
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05-10-12 11:34 PM #38
Credit's given to B2W for leading me in the direction of perfecting series chases. I followed it last year, I play the MAJORITY of their series plays (OFFICIAL PICKS), which are noted. I play a lot more games because I have my own system and filters added to it. Originally Posted by dlunc3
I wont go into detail with it as I have gotten numerous messages from people interested in paying me for it and what not which I have no intentions of doing. Ill break it down as simple as possible:
These games take HOURS a day for me to cap even with the system.
1.) It relates to B2W because it still follows along the RPI (Google it to understand the formula in depth)
2.) I use their RPI total as a GUIDELINE for my own picks. It saves me a lot of time by giving me a good direction.
3.) I have a spreadsheet called "The Watch List" which has helped TREMENDOUSLY, the most impressive sheet I have made thus far (I use spreadsheets for everything haha). EX: NYM was a official play first week of RPI yet I had them as a team that wasn't as good as their record showed.. as well with Detroit when they got swept by Seattle early through the season (injuries, etc).
4.) I have a filter with historic data that will calculate the outcome of a team sweeping (08' - 11')
5.) Another filter that calculates team trends in W/L (11' - 12')
6.) Head-to-Head data.
7.) I wont explain the other parts of it because I think it'll just catch on for the majority.. but.. Finally it all comes down to capping EACH and EVERY game regardless of the RPI.
8.) MONEY MANAGEMENT, MONEY MANAGEMENT, MONEY MANAGEMENT. I was in shock to see people over on Covers risking up to 20% of their BR on each chase.. Insane.
I am actually in the process of creating another add-on (maybe for late into the season) of valuing chases for certain scenarios of 4% - 5%. I'll go more into detail throughout the next couple of months once I backtrack it.
They key: play small % and a lot more games and don't get too greedy. If the game doesn't look good going into C and you've played the 2 games.. Just dont play it. Be happy with a 100% ROI by the end of the season - which is hard to do with straight wager games.
Avoiding a full 3 game sweep is what I strive to do. Its gonna happen.. Its happened 4 times in Covers already but minimizing those big losses is my main goal. Yet to take a big hit like that on my BR.
Hope this clears a bit up.
GL
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05-10-12 11:35 PM #39
Originally Posted by mrk77
If you passed on A and you're playing B... Bet it as if you're playing A... All you're doing is betting to win whatever % you feel comfortable with.
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05-11-12 12:30 AM #40
5/11:
Official; NYY, TEX, CHW, TOR, LAD
Unofficial; PHI
Lean: STL
All plays are wagered in already except STL.. Still on the fence with that one.
gl
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05-11-12 07:00 AM #41
So, if I'm understanding right, TOR would be a "B1"? I like your picks GL! Originally Posted by mac miller
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05-11-12 08:47 AM #42
Hey Mac nice to see you again. Looks like we will be having a lot of the same plays. I have been doing something similar since the beginning including no/yes run first inning and Team to score first. Good luck!!
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05-11-12 09:02 AM #43
Like these 5/11 picks a lot with only two exceptions. I think Seattle beats NYY and I think the CWS/Royals game will be very close and isn't work playing. (My top picks today are Toronto, Nationals, Dodgers, Giants, and I will be doing several two-game parlays among these four teams).
Was very confident on Cleveland yesterday and hit huge, wish I had posted here but was at work at the time.
Thanks for the interesting thread Mac, will continue to follow.
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05-11-12 10:13 AM #44
good to be back! Took some time off to focus on this system, you still have a thread going fr your picks? Originally Posted by calmeat
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05-11-12 10:56 AM #45
yup Got a thread ive been doing since close to the beginning
http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/baseball-b...ps-2012-a.html
Doing well and hoping to do better. Good luck to us!
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05-11-12 03:12 PM #46
thank you for posting mac. will look up your twitter too, tyvm. best of luck!
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05-11-12 03:32 PM #47
Playing STL.
gl
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05-11-12 05:23 PM #48
are these all A1 for tonight?
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05-11-12 05:55 PM #49
yep Originally Posted by dee_jas
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05-11-12 08:40 PM #50
Originally Posted by dlunc3
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05-11-12 09:31 PM #51
PHI and NYY Cashed.
CHW top 8 up 5-0.. hoping they hold on.
STL with a come back, up 6-5 top 7
Games are looking ok so far.
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05-11-12 09:34 PM #52
As well, I am in the works of creating a blog to track all my picks.. I've done fairly well in NCAAB, NHL, NBA so it will be a lot more organized.
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05-12-12 12:24 AM #53
5 of 7 games cash tonight.
Tomorrow: (Haven't looked into it yet but more than likely playing it)
TOR "B2"
STL "B2"
MLB YTD: [48-4-0] +133.10 Units.
*2 Pending*
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05-12-12 10:22 AM #54
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05-12-12 10:27 AM #55
Well Done.
Lets hope the Jays dont crumble again!
gl
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05-12-12 10:33 AM #56
@Mac
What is your unit play 5x on game A?
----Edit
NM i see its 3x to start game 1Last edited by calmeat; 05-12-12 at 10:56 AM.
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05-12-12 10:59 AM #57
Little confused. Are you "risking" 3% of your bankroll, or betting to "win" 3% of your bankroll. Some posts you state you're betting to win, other posts state risk no more than 3%. Thanks.
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05-12-12 11:07 AM #58
yeah sorry about the confusion.. Betting to win 3% of my BR (16,500) which is roughly 5x. It will change sometimes to 2.5x (I will make note of it)... Still on the fence what im doing with both games. I like their chances for sure to not get swept in the next 2 but a little iffy that 1/2 will only hit for todays matchups.. Tomorrow looks reallly good with Romero Lynn as probable starters... Will most likely just pull the trigger on the 2.
Points Awarded:
swordsandtequila gave mac miller 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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05-12-12 12:04 PM #59
Damn... This is getting a little too much. Covers just doesn't seem to like me, not getting the right exposure on the thread and NOW getting called out by @Oddsbuster on Twitter as being a FRAUD and a MORON.. Damn.. I guess he doesn't realize they're series chases although its always clearly stated on my account....
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05-12-12 12:05 PM #60
Just keep on track and we'll support you. Toronto & ST Louis tonight?
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05-12-12 12:07 PM #61
Yeah lets do it. Honestly wont surprise me if we face a "C3" tomorrow with 1 of 2. Match up is really good for tomorrow anyways.. Let's hope it doesn't lead to that.
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05-12-12 12:12 PM #62
5/12:
TOR "B2"
STL "B2"
gl
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05-12-12 12:41 PM #63
@Mac,
Yup im on them as well. Love both matchups tomorrow. Way I look at it MIN stinks and bringing up a triple A pitcher today and TOR should have won yesterday. MIN will at least split with TOR No Way they win the series 3 to 1. STL i was worried about this series not the best pitchers for them. However i noticed tomorrows matchup and liked it so ended up playing it. Im thinking STL goes to tomorrow and TOR ends tonight.
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05-12-12 12:53 PM #64
Not that it's a big deal, but shouldn't Toronto be "C2", as this is the 3rd game of a 4 game series (2nd bet). Making sure I'm not messing up anything. Thanks. Originally Posted by mac miller
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05-12-12 01:12 PM #65
Yeah but we won the 1st one, and in a 4 game series if the first game hits you play the last 3 as a new series. Im not big on that idea at all but I made an exception with the team positioning in this one.
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05-12-12 01:15 PM #66
Okay, got ya. I didn't play the first game, missed where you did. Makes sense now. Thanks again.
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05-12-12 10:09 PM #67
TOR "B2" cashes.. Unfortunatley. We have another "C3" tomorrow:
STL "C3"
Praying this one hits. Wish I went with my handicapping instincts and sat B game out and waited for Lynn, but whats done is done.
gl
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05-13-12 06:07 PM #68
Alright mac fresh series tomorrow let us know what ya got.
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05-13-12 06:23 PM #69
ya let's do it! Originally Posted by Vinnie Paz
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05-13-12 08:18 PM #70
Took my first 3 game series loss. Still up a good amount this season. Will have leans and record updated hopefully by tonight
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