[ScreaminPain]

...jello', I don't mean to ignore your last post, but I'll have to go back and come up with a count. When I compiled this I didn't denote which team won, or if they won by a single run or several. I simply noted whether or not the system applied. I'm going to put this on an excel sheet so we can play with it using filters, etc.

I'm working on a method that may prove to be better money management than what we have so far....I probably won't get it done until tomorrow, but I'll post everything as soon as I can get it.

Stand by..

[jellobiafra]

Well it's a good time to jump in. System is 0-1 in overall play with the Yankees getting donkey punched by the Orioles. $160mm just doesn't get you what it used to. I really hope this system doesn't leave us getting stuck behind an underperforming overvalued Yankee team the majority of the time -- but I'm afraid it just might.

[jellobiafra]

Thanks Screamin. I'm looking forward to whatever you are working on.

Tomorrow we might have our first mini-delimma. It's early but it looks like SF behind Lincecum is -160 on the M/L and +140 on the R/L. Danny Haren is -153 M/L vs the Rockies but only +135 R/L. I think when you backtracked this you were using the largest M/L favorite on the board - so the play would be Lincecum if so. If we go by biggest favorite on the R/L it's Harren.

I think I'd rather have Harren. Lincecum is too likely to win 1-0. But is COL more likely to win since they lost today? Hmmm.. Maybe something else we could consider in filtering. Do we want to be betting on teams to sweep for instance if we have an almost similar favorite in possibly a better spot -- like playing NOT to get swept for instance.

Anyway, today's result was a loss --


Record: 0-0 (0-1)

Profit/Loss: -$6.15 (1.23 units)

[jellobiafra]

Alright, I settled on SFG because I think it meets the ground rules as tested by ScreaminInPain. They were the opening lines heaviest favorite on the board. In the past hour or so the R/L on Haren and Zona has moved to +140 as well.



So it's $7.96 to win $11.15 on SFG +140



I like the fact that I only have to bet another $1.85 on this "B" bet. That's a total risk so far of 2.82 units over 2 bets. Good price for a chase. Don't know if that kind of ratio will hold up or not, but it makes it a lot less risky. If I lose and get similar odds tomorrow, I'm still only looking at about a $15 bet. Lose that and I'm down about 6 units over 3 bets.

[jhause13]

This system is really intriguing and I was on the Yankees yesterday with you guys. I'll be on the Giants today as well, lets make some money.

[jellobiafra]

Alright, but I think at this point it might just be you and me. LOL. Again, I can't stress enough if you are playing this with real money go easy out of the gate. I'm intrigued too (obviously) but I am far from trusting this thing. It could blow up in our faces for all we know. That's why I'm starting with the minimum bet my book will take.

[thebestthereis]

I will be using 1% of my bankroll per play. Laid of the Yanks yesterday just because. Gonna jump in starting today. Let the games begin!

[jhause13]

Yeah i'm using the minimum bet allowed too. Hopefully this doesn't blow up in our face, seems like it was pretty trustworthy last year but who knows.

[do5000]

i'm also in on this, although i doubt my $2 bet will make me rich anytime soon...

lost on the yanks last night, hope the giants do better tonight.
i tried it with both pinny and sportsinteraction, and they have different odds, so my chase bets will alter each time.

ps i tested this out myself on 3 months (each) of the 06 and 07 seasons, using the covers.com info.
worked for the months i tried (never went more than 6 games). each month was up between 5 and 15 units.
i'm clearly no expert, so if anybody else interested in verifying this, im sure the results would be intersesting.

good luck to all!

[peeiempee]

Chases, especially 6 game chases can drain ur bankroll. Low returns, but huge risk. Let's just go with 2 dollars. You are risking $64 to win $2 by the 6th game. If that doesn't hit, you lose $126. $126 to win $2. 1 loss = 63 units. In my opinion not worth it. Chase 3 games only if u like chasing

[jellobiafra]

In a less than even odds situation you are correct. This system might be a little less risky because of the plus odds. Today I'm getting +140. So I'm risking $7.96 to win $14.11. Assuming a loss and equal odds opportunity tomorrow I would have to lay $13.65 to win $19.11. Another loss and the same odds and I'm laying $23.40 to win $32.76. That would be the 4th bet. If 4 of these lose in a row my next wager with equal odds (assuming I'd take it out to a 5th bet) would be $40.11 to win $56.16.

I don't expect to get +140 every time with this bet, but I think we can average better than even. The NBA chase system is based on -170 odds which runs that total risk up exponentially.

[thebestthereis]

even if you made an average of $50 a week or less its well worth it. keep it small on this one. free food or drinks

[G's pks]

If you guys are going to do this...someone should make the pick in bold and say what the line is and what part of the chase stage it is in... And post a record....this could become a good thread if it works...

[jellobiafra]

I'm doing that. Tonight is bet B. SF +140.

[G's pks]

I'm doing that. Tonight is bet B. SF +140.

For record keeping purpose might want to mention the -1 1/2 runs...

Just a thought not my thread but more like this>>>

SF +140 (-1 1/2 runs)

Current Record 0-1

Just a thought good luck guys...may be in on this thread also...

[CashMoney]

Interesting system. I'm going to follow for a bit considering I have the Brewers on the ML today. Good luck.

[The_Kid]

Instead of betting real money because you're unsure, just track it and see how it does...

[jellobiafra]

G's Picks....

I'll try to follow your format. I'm kind of laughing because I've noticed how this thread up until now has been a bunch of us newbies posting in it. Not sure how that should make me feel about this system. lol. Apparently we could use a little guidance so your suggestion is appreciated.


CashMoney...

Thanks for the wish of luck, even though I know you don't mean it today. The nice thing about these systems is you really don't have to sweat it for the 1st few games. Sure I'd like SF to cover today, but if they don't I'm not sweating a $15 bet tomorrow. Now if this thing doesn't cover over the next two or three....


The Kid....

I appreciate your suggestion and it's been considered. Many of us are simply tracking it I'm sure but that's just too boring for me. I'm going bare minimum (as I think all of us who are posting here and playing real money on this are) amounts. I'm chasing $5 for now. Little risk. We have (well ScreaminInPain has) backtracked this for last season through August and it was undefeated. There was one 5 game chase and one 6 gamer. The rest of the season looked pretty stress free. Gained 65 units.

[G's pks]

Yes...because if you do not use a regular format and not mention you are betting the runline, you will have people attacking you thinking you were betting the moneyline (of course not realizing) and say hey wait a minute that the Ml was -165, not +140(not realizing you are betting runline)...or whatever the closing lines happen to be... Well good luck, I have a few systems I will be charting and will keep an eye on you guys too. G.

[ScreaminPain]

OK, I’m back with an updated betting pattern that may satisfy the skeptics. Keep in mind the basic premise of this chase is the notion that the biggest favorite of the day cannot get swept in 6 games. We are using the Run Line to keep the wagers from escalating during the losing sequences, however we’re also asking the fav’s to win by 2 runs…..

The test period from last year, concluded the fact that NO chase went past 6 games, thereby validating the premise. However, 1 chase went the full 6 games, 1 went 5 games and 6 others went 4 games. With this new process (using the same test dates) NO chase went 4 games and only a handful went 3 games.

The following model will allow us to bet each game as a -1 Run Line instead of 1.5. This will decrease the number of losses in a chase as all games that would previously lose by a run will now become a PUSH. Ultimately, that means that the sequence would not have to increase the bet in order to remain in the chase. In the test period of May 2008 through Aug 2008, I found the number of carryovers decreased to the point of having 4 3-gm chases…..all others were 2 games or less. Thus, the amount of each wager decreased without altering the amount won over the life of the test period.
This method may be confusing to some, buy I’ll try to explain it. First, this will only work on lines that have a minus (-) number for the ML and a plus (+) number for the RL.
For an example:
BASIC WAGER= $10
Minnesota Twins -125 -1.5 (+180)
Toronto Blue Jays -175 -1.5(+170)
In the above case with Minnesota, I would bet $5.55 on the ML at -125 and 4.45 on RL at +180. Toronto bet $6.64 on the ML, and $3.36 on the RL.
Here is how it plays out.
Min wins by 2 runs= +$12.44
Min wins by 1 Run=Push
Min loses= $-10
Toronto wins by 2 runs= 9.82
Toronto wins by 1 run = Push
Toronto loses = -$10

The biggest advantage here is the fact that after a 1 run win it isn’t necessary to increase your wager as no money has been lost, whereas in the conventional chase, a 1 run win would be a LOSS and that amount would be added to the chase. The amounts vary due to the variance in the RL and ML amounts. I used the conventional method for compiling data in the test period. Along side of that I
Used the same data with a $20 basic amount coupled with the revised 1-run model.
Everything is on the spreadsheet. Excel 97 use bottom link.
http://www.mediafire.com/file/qlgyhyj0lju/RUN LINE CHASE.xlsx
http://www.mediafire.com/file/oewy3t...ChaseData2.xls

Good Luck…..

[jhause13]

Link doesn't seem to be working for me but good stuff in the post. I'm gonna try the -1.5 runline for now but if I can stick with this and it isn't working i'll try 1 run if I feel it will work better.

[tweek]

But, at the same time, your odds will go down since you're hedging against the negative ML. So, I think the important question is whether or not your max bet goes down (as your bets will increase faster during the chase... so a 3 game chase w/ this system will require more $$ than the old system).

Can you save the spreadsheet as a standard .xls file (for those of us without office 2007).

[jhause13]

Got our first win

[ScreaminPain]

Can you save the spreadsheet as a standard .xls file (for those of us without office 2007).

I posted a new link for .xls files on post #55

[jellobiafra]

SiP --

This is fantastic. I like the way you think. You've essentially created an insurance policy for these picks. It's quite simple but yet brilliant. And I would have never thought of it.

I'm trying to understand tweeks objection. I suppose the only "drawback" here would be that instead of getting your entire payout on a + scale, you are cutting into that by splitting this. So you are chopping your own odds on the R/L bet. You make this a straight even (or as mathematically close as you can get it) proposition. $10 risked for $10 reward. I would say that's probably a price I'm willing to pay for the piece of mind the insurance grants you.

I love it. Now we need to figure out if there are other applications. I'm starting to see big possibilties in this. We could apply it to almost any strong favorite on the board to acheive even M/L odds on what would otherwise be bets where we'd pay the juice. Up to whatever point these teams become a minus bet on the R/L, we buy the +odds R/L bet and back it up with a M/L bet. If the team wins by 2 you get even money. If they win by 1 you push. Am I figuring this correctly?

[jellobiafra]

ON second thought, they wouldn't be bets where we'd pay the juice since we don't get paid on 1 run wins. I still like the idea of playing this on more than just games used in this chase. Oh yeah. I like it a lot.

[CashMoney]

I'm a sucker for a good system and this seems like a winner. I'm in starting tomorrow. I have an account with $300 in it so I'll start tomorrow with a $5 bet on the -1.5 run line.

[jellobiafra]

Well the "system" is 1-0 now after the Giants cashed. I'm going to roll with SiP's modified version from here on out. If you look at his spreadsheets with the two systems side by side it's pretty striking. There's so much less red in the right hand column. Red is losing bets. Red is bad. I'm going with the plays based on the system used in the right hand column. I'm buying insurance.

[Bluehorseshoe]

But, at the same time, your odds will go down since you're hedging against the negative ML. So, I think the important question is whether or not your max bet goes down (as your bets will increase faster during the chase... so a 3 game chase w/ this system will require more $$ than the old system).

Can you save the spreadsheet as a standard .xls file (for those of us without office 2007).

Exactly. I don't think people realize you're now paying juice on those one run loses.

[jellobiafra]

I'm just looking over some lines for tomorrow and seeing where this strategy is going to come into play for me this season. There are games where you really like the favorite but you don't want to lay the juice.

For instance, Florida is -150 on the M/L and +130 on the R/L tomorrow. I really like them to finish the sweep, but I don't know if I'm willing to lay the 150. I can bundle the two lines -- $60 on the M/L and $40 on the R/L. If they win the game by 2 I win $92 on my $100 bet. If they win by 1 I push. If they lose I lose but instead of losing the $138 I would have had to lay to win $92 I only lose $100.

I'm looking at StL too. They are -163 and +120. $62 M/L and $38 R/L to win $84. You're getting them at -119 now. Course they gotta win by 2 but as long as they win you don't get hurt. If they lose you're going to lose no matter what.

You are essentially moving the line from StL pk at -163 to StL -1 at -119. I don't know if that's advantageous or not yet.

One thing too is that these lines aren't universal. -150 M/L doesn't always equate to +130 R/L like a basketball line would with buying points. I can sell that point on the Marlins line and move the line from Marlins a pick at -150 to FLA -1 at -109. There seems to be value in that at first glance.

[Bluehorseshoe]

But the system is based on taking the biggest favorite on the board each day, not to pick and choose your spots. What happens when you convert a -220 to the -1 run line and lose it on your third play?

[jellobiafra]

If it's a -220 you're not going to be able to apply this because the R/L is going to be a (-) bet as well. You can only do this on lines that are (+) R/L. And I wasn't talking about picking and choosing games for the system. The system plays are still going to be the biggest favorites on the board. I was just saying I can see myself using this strategy in other spots as well. The idea of getting the Marlins -1 today for -109 is appealing to me. Wouldn't be a system play, just something I might decide to play on my own.

[do5000]

if the biggest favorite is a -220, would you skip that day? or just bet the original way with one bet at -1.5 then go back to screamin's new system the next ?

[jellobiafra]

I'm gonna play the biggest favorite on the board every day on the run line. That's the system. I don't want to confuse anybody. I'll even keep the record of this system just like it's meant to be played in it's original form. I'm just saying when the option is there to buy insurance on the M/L, I'm going to be exercising that option.

I thought we were going to have to root for the Evil Empire today. They opened up last night as the biggest favorite but people must be hammering the O's because the the Yanks have dropped to -148. The LAD are -170 as of this morning. This is where there can be some ambiguity in this system. I'm calling this one a play on the Dodger's because I think it's true to the guidlines. Even though the Yankees were the biggest favorite yesterday for today's games, the Dodgers are the biggest favorite on the board today for today's games. They are -110 on the R/L so there's nothing to get fancy with on this one. No option to hedge with a M/L bet.



LAD -110 (-1.5 runs)

Current Record: 1-0 (1-1 overall plays)

[thebestthereis]

2 comments. 1) Yanks opened as the largest RL favorite of the day by far at -1.5 -125. 2) When you have to pick between two games that are close like today I suggest looking at the total. The LA/SD game has a low total (night game at Petco Park of course..LOL) so the game will "likely" be closer. So take the the game with the larger total.

Just my opinion. I am on the Yanks even though I hate them