[Grinder12000]

Formally Houston/Brewer series thread

WHAT I'M ATTEMPTING DO DO
I've been handicapping since the late 70's - systems numbers guy - but with baseball - my true love - I sucked! So I told a friend - "using my BRAIN - I will bet on or against the Brewers every game this year - probably learning as I go - many people say "I knew they would win I picked that game" well - I'm putting my money where my mouth is.

Record 11-9 +4.31

Had a few things right last night but in the end - the Brewer pen let me down. The bullpen for the Crew has become a small problem but in this series . . anything can happen. And once I get a little down at the Brewer pen I look at the Astros and feel much better. The Phillie series was so easy to predict but this series has so many little crazy things in it.

OK today we have WANDY Rodriguez going against Wolf.

Rodriguez - sigh - wow where do you begin. In his four games Wandy has pitched against teams that score an average of 4.45L, 4.30L, 4.21L, 4.60W - The Brewers are 4.70 so this will be his biggest test. Wandy is pretty bad on the road. In the last three years he has a 2.59 ERA at home and a 4.25 ERA on the road. Wandys average "Game Score" at home is 57.72 while on the road it's 47.39 in the last 2 years. He also, on average, he does not get to the 6th inning on the road.

This is big as the Astro bullpen is actually worse then you think. While they have a 4.19 ERA their defense is ballooning the pens runs per game up to a staggering 5.49. Plus - something Brewers fans are very familiar with - the Astro pen is tired! 9 pitchers and 186 pitches this series so far compared the the Brewers 140 and 9 pitchers, that's like an extra 5 innings.

Probably won't see Melancone or Abad or Lyon which is basically the entire back end of the bull pen!

On the other hand the Houston bats are coming alive against the Brewers which makes me nervous. Houston was pretty quite coming into Milwaukee but have awaken!

Milwaukee - Wolf - 1st thing I did was to look at all of Wolfys past performances - he has pitched two games in a row with a Game Score in the 70s. Remember I looked at Halladay and discovered that Halladay always had a bad outing his 3rd time out after back to back 70's and . . it works out great. Wolf? Not too worried.

Wolf seems to get on a streak and while he has only been back to back 70s a few times when he does get hot he stays hot. In 2002 he had 4 +70s in a row. So I'm not REAL worried about a big let down. He seems streaky!

Wolf has pitched against team scoring 4.60W, 3.89W, 4.30L 5.37L and Houston is 4.60. Wolf is slightly better at home and slightly better in Day games and is pretty even LHH vs. RHH (Rodriguez tends to be a little worse vs. Right hand hitters and Braun OWNS him).

Listening to the game last night I was worried about Council leading off for the injured Weeks - once I really thought about it I hated the idea, then he goes 2 for 6 with two runs! I don't like Weeks out of the line-up but I feel the brewers can overcome this (and better defense).

Fielder has not hit an HR in 9 games and won't today against Rodriguez but Braun might. What can't he hit at the moment! Brewers have a slugging vs. LHP of .335 and against RHP .450 but this is where the brewers have a higher kicker. The Astros have zero usable Lefties in their pen and once Rodriguez is remove with 2 outs in the 5th . . . . actually he might go longer with only long and middle relievers in the pen. It's all down hill for Houston.

I'm feeling better about this game - remember yesterday my spidey senses for tingeing, Win big or lose.

Today - just win against a bullpen that ii giving up runs

Cliff notes
Rodriguez + 0.5 Brewers
Wolf +1.0 Brewers
Houston Pen -1.5
Milwaukee pen -0.5
Houston bats +.75
Milwaukee Bats +1.1

I'm just making that crap up you know.

Brewers -145 145 to win 100

[mikey360]

Thanks Grinder, I enjoy reading your write ups on the brewers.

[Grinder12000]

LOL - I might not be right but it reads good! :-)

[WilChien]

nice write up man. BOL

[Grinder12000]

Something I failed to mention was the Brewer pen - not a big worry when you look at the - the principle players are all good to go! Kintzler had his worst outing - Green won't pitch today and Hawkins was in Spring training mode in game 1.

So while the Brewers have used a lot of pitchers they have been of the "common" variety and the the back end where REAL pitching is really needed - plus Axford pitched well! WHEW wit hStetter and Loe still doing great!

[jhack704]

yea i was at that game last night, bot of 9 was crazy but tha 10th inning sucked and i left, fn bullpen

[Grinder12000]

Looking good SO far! and the bullpens are not pitching yet!

Bingo on a roll 5 of the last 7 +4.52

[Grinder12000]

Record 12-9 +5.31

Loved yesterdays game - today not so much - gonna be tight.

The Reds coming into Milwaukee struggling. They lost their clean-up hitter and future hall of famer Rolan which I feel is vastly underrated! Losing you clean-up just makes the order less workable, uncomfortable and the Reds offense is not working. The top of the line up is hitting .213 in the last 10 games scoring a very average 2.67 runs per game but hitting in only 2.00 runs per game. Compare that with the Brewers .340 4.2 runs and 3.3 RBI and that is a pretty large difference!

So if you are comparing only offense the Brewers have a HUGE edge.

Pitching - Arroyo has done well vs. Milwaukee and if he can keep people off base when the home runs come he will do fine. He's pitched 54 innings against these Brewers and given up 8 home runs but in Miller Park he has owned the Brewers! However, the Brewers have never been this hot when he shows up. And I'm not talking the long ball but just getting people on base!! Arroyo has pitched against Arizona twice, the Brewers and Pitts! 3 of those 4 games are against high home run teams.

Narveson is a LHP and geez - the guy has a 2.19 ERA and is 1-3 in games started? In his last 15 games started he has an ERA of 3.13. Probebly want to factor in that he has a career .269 batting average (Arroyo has a .131 average) which just helps the lineup so well. Plus the guy is a EXPERT bunter for close games (Arroyo is not very good at all with any facet of batting). So it's theReds 8 guys against the Brewers 9 guys!

The key to this game for the Brewers is getting on base - they will get a long ball but will it be a 1 run dinger?

Both pens are rested (Cinci had a midnight flight to Milwaukee after last nights game) but the Reds pen has been outstanding! Brewers better get their runs early. Reds starters have given up 3 or more runs in 7 straight games and then the pens comes in to shut the door! They have Run average of 1.64 (compared the the Brewers slightly deceiving 5.53 but it's not THAT bad - clean up innings and so forth).

The trouble spot for the Brewers would be long relief.

If I had to pick one game for the Brewers to lose this series - this would be the game but the bats are just so horrifically hot - not a fan of the run line mostly because it's normally a sucker bet and this game could be close! Gotta stay with the hot bats and get the runs early as the Brewers will be closed out the last 3 innings!

Reds take a lot of pitches - Brewers are free swingers both pitches are pretty average at pitches per batter (unlike Gallardo)

Gotta be a homer again

Milwaukee -121

[mikey360]

Thanks Grinder, nice start to things so far, good luck tonight, i'm on Milwaukee as well.

[firehoyt]

Great idea to trail a team and bet for/against. GL

[mlb]

good luck man

[Spaceviews]

Love the concept. Do you think Milw. 1st 5 would be safer? Or are you staying with straight bets on the whole game?

[chiliv5]

the reds are in shambles right now, but you never know what night that offense could light it up. safe play seems to be the brew crew.

[odog11]

Great idea to trail a team and bet for/against. GL

I agree and thought about doing this for the Red Sox at the beginning of the year, but then the slow start killed that idea. I have been playing them on the run line for a while now and think that is sound strategy when they are facing mediocre to poor pitching. Going to follow this thread and may throw in some Sox thoughts along the way. Maybe start up a new thread once NBA and NHL are over. I am on the brew crew tonight. Good luck all.

[BeatingBaseball]

At -130 or better, Milwaukee is the play here. A .566 win percentage would be profitable and Brewers should win this matchup at almost .600. Narveson has looked much better than Arroyo of late plus the lineup dynamics are all Brewers. Votto is the only guy swinging it for the Reds right now while the Brewers offense is en fuego.

[Grinder12000]

Oddly I feel this game has a let down" feel . . . or more like a wake-up feel for the Reds - one of those spider senses (1-0 on spider senses) but then Rolins out, offense struggling . . . but then Arroyo has always done well.

Spaceviews - I was thinking about that but could just be a low scoring affair all around. Certainly not a run line game - to much of a chance to be close.

Any Reds fans here? Their Starters have all sort of sucked lately also! 6.45 ERA of late.

I say a good bet is to bet AGAINST the Bratwurst! That hat slows him down and with the roof open could be a problem :-)

Any of you know what the 1st 2nd adn 3rd order winning percentage is? Interesting stuff - Brewers SHOULD have a winning pct of .590!~

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/st...dings_rsort=d3

BTW - if you read the Baseball Prospectus - a good friend of mine wrote the Brewers section! Three of the guys in my Strat-o-matic league are mentioned on page 576 - Ken Funck and friends.

[Grinder12000]

record 12-10 +410

WOW - just to make things more kornfusing I ran some numbers of how the Top of the Brewers lineup performed against pitcher types! BRAIN HURT!!! More on that in a bit.

WHO KNEW Narveson was suffering from flu-like symptoms. The Reds batters really only had one GREAT inning and the Brewer bats still did the job - just not enough to overcome the regurgitation which happened in the 3rd.

Tonight! Game #23 vs. Cinci! 23 you say? well in the last 22 games the Reds have beaten the Brewers 19 times. However the Reds have always had much better pitching then the Brewers and I refuse to make the link between winning 3 times in 22 games to tonight's game. Not gonna do it! No way! Means absolutely nothing. Not even going to think about it.

Eric Marco Estrada's big problem coming into this year was that he throws a lot off speed junk which was OK in the minors but going against REAL batters he was projected to be taken deep more then acceptable! Well, his ground ball % is still 40% this year which is a big deal and makes me uncomfortable against the Reds who are tied with the Brewers in home runs in the last 20 games with . . 20.

Still - he has pitched well for a #5 and no one has complained at all. The thought was he would pitch one game and be sent down but he pitched 4 good innings in spring training and he's still here.

The Brewer bats are still alive and well with the top of the order hitting .344 scoring 4.3 runs per game and hitting in 3.5 runs per game! Pretty good! HOWEVER . . . . weirdness comes into play!

I was looking at what styles of pitchers were giving the guys problems. First thing I looked at were Ground ball vs. Fly Ball pitchers! Since GB% is almost always <50% I found that on average the Brewers start to have a tiny problem when the GB% gets above 45%.

Mike Leake is about a 47% GB%

Then I was looking at BABIP (Batting Average from Balls In Play) and oddly this year, SO FAR (and I have noticed this before I looked this up) they prefer pitchers with low BABIP (under .300) and Leake is .311. Now remember we are talking about a group hitting .340 so "poor" is relative! They just do worse then .340.

The Brewers CRUSH low WHIP hurlers (I use that term loosely as Narvesons was a double hurler last night). If you have a guy with a WHIP below 1.34 they hit .371 Above 1.34? .268 Leak is 1.46

And finally there is this thing called FRA (Fair Run Average) which is defense and park adjusted ERA and once again the better the pitcher the better they do. It's almost like that really concentrate more against the tough guys.

Of course this is all on limited numbers so take it for what it's worth.

ANYWAY - at this moment the Brewers are slight favorites at -114 and the Reds are +104 and my gut feeling is that this could go either way.

OH - BTW looking at Leake and how he has done against the Brewers . . . Wil Nieves is 0-3, That's it. The only guy that has ever faced Leake so the Brewers have NEVER had a hit off him.

So here is what will happen - for the 1st time since the Crew faced the Nat's I'm betting against MY team! The Brewers will lose and Brew fans will get all weird saying we suck and the world is coming to an end forgetting that Hart (who will REALLY help) and Grinke (Cy Young) are still not playing.

I can not see St.Louis or Reds staying with the Brewers in the long run!

RED +104

[BeatingBaseball]

If you were talking about the Narveson/Arroyo game, Grinder - you nailed it re the "letdown feel."

Haven't put the jeweler's loop to tonight's matchup as of yet, but I do appreciate the 1st, 2nd and 3rd order adjusted standings - was not aware of those - thanks.

[AL1322]

well lets hope the crew can get 1 against the reds to gain some momentum

[Grinder12000]

I should put a date on these!

BeatingBaseball - yea, you can talk about how the Brewers wanted the game moreso they should win but to me it felt that it was actually the Reds who had something to prove. That shutout the Reds had actually hurt the Brewers. Maybe that was that tingle I ignored! same way tonight.

The 1st, 2nd and 3rd order adjusted standings are pretty interesting and pretty accurate - one thing they could be used for is to see teams that are playing over their head = I'm more afraid of the Cards then The Reds at the moment.

Tonight - for me it's all about the line - Pick'm game I'm playing the Brewers but paying 114 to win 100 seems steep when I can pay 100 to win 104 the other way. Harder to watch on TV though LOL

[Grinder12000]

CAsey McGehee is not playing tonight - Council is batting 2nd Gomez 8th McGehee has 4 2B and a HR in the last 9 games hitting .358 Might put a little extra on the Reds.

[dallaswynn]

I have my money on the Brewers tonight. I think they played a decent game overall last night. They still batted well and as you said, the Reds really only had one good inning. I'm still over the 3rd. When I placed my bet last night, the ML was -110. I have my fingers crossed. I've got 3 units on it tonight.

[Grinder12000]

Good Luck Dallas - being a Brewer fan I of course would love a victory!! I can't lose LOL

[Bcatswin]

BOL 2 ALL, Im on the REDS!!!!!

[carmeloso80]

Yeah I'm leaning brewers, besides one bad inning decided that game last night and I don't see that happing again tonight.

[Grinder12000]

Hope to see some of you guys over at Sportsline.com Game Tracker Comment thingy!!

[dallaswynn]

Yes!! That's what I'm talking about! Brewers played an excellent game and won it in bet [B]!! Win Daddy his money!!

[Grinder12000]

Whew - I was right mostly and lost but that is OK - Brewers really did have some problems but three dingers - Estrada continues to baffle me. I don't mind losing a bet this way!

[dallaswynn]

I just wish there were a way to watch it on TV (or otherwise). I would have had to pay to see it.

[dallaswynn]

I thought they played an awesome game. I think they offered a few more hits than I would have liked, but the Reds are like #1 for hits. I can't find a big issue with tonight's game............given that we were saved with a HR.

[Grinder12000]

Wednesday Cinci Game #3

Record 12-11 +3.10

Small write up today as I'm off to the game - if anybody else goes and see's a guy with two cameras and a Brewer jacket - yell Grinder and see if I look.

I'm on the Brewers today mostly because they have a monkey off their back and has nothing else to do with baseball. Gallardo vs. LeCure who is sort of a Leake pitcher - ground balls, high lifetime WHIP, high-ish ERA.

Brewer bats are smokin' hot - top of the lineup .335 4.4 runs 3.5 RBI's - - Cinci NOT hot .221 3.09 Runs and 2.36 RBIs.

Gallardo has always pitched a lot of balls per batter - last year 3.98 pitches per batter, 2009 was 4.03 and this year 4.01 which tells you why he only goes 6 innings! Cinci normally lights Gallardo up in a serious way and I'm hoping that with Yovani's recent slump and the Reds recent slump will match up correctly and help the Crew.

Brewers are -155 which is steep but the Reds are just not hitting and with the clean-up their line-up is in disarray - I was reading comments on Sports line last night from Reds fans and there seems to be a lot of big question marks with line-ups and who is playing where. It's not a stable team at the moment.

Pens for both teams are in good shape

Brewers -155

[CollegePro]

love reds today.... gallardo been hit hard lately... brewers' bats bailed him out.... Cin hit gllardo hard before.... their team batting avg against gallardo is ridiculous..... Cin definitely has value today but gl with your bet.

[Grinder12000]

I hear ya CollagePro - but I'm sort of a contrairian - when something looks SO bad I tend to go the other way and Gallardo is SO bad against Cinci it's crazy. The thing is that the last few games before Gallardo pitched people were "hoping" he would get it together. but NOW - I have heard people actually saying he needs to change, they discovered a problem (or at least made it public).

He needs to pitch to contact more instead of striking everybody out! Thus I believe we will see a different Yovanni today! CAN'T HURT!!!

[hankcream]

I think Brewers win, but way too much juice for me to lay on Gallardo who for some reason isn't the best day game pitcher 9-14 career.

[KC]

Good writeup, I root hard for the Brewers everyday need them to go over 85.5 wins. Think when Zach and Cory come back they go on a serious roll.