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FACK the haters! great to see u make money..tail at your OWN discretion the plays you like my friend...Originally Posted by Sbot420
Hope? lol, there is no hope in gambling! lol...just kidding man! Thanks bro..for the good energy.Great picks, man. Hope it keeps rollin' for ya
I havent gotten pts that ive seen man..but thanks for the effort regardless
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the system works the way i bet it...if any of you guys find a better way to tail it and make money, then be my guest. You manage your money, i spit out plays...so whatever works for you, but remember, there WILL BE losing days, so dont put all your eggs in one basket!Just found this tread. Looks nice as heck. Looks like ill be tailin it for awhile
Jorge
Thanks browsky montana!
Jorge
Thanks for the props..lots of hard moments learning about bases the last few years...but im STILL LEARNING...never nuff!damn im pretty excited to start tailing. this looks ******* good. props to the two years it took to get your shit together. AMEN
Tail at own discretion, lightly please!
Jorge
Thanks my man, only time will tell greatness!
Jorge
Thanks my man..how is it going bro?
Jorge
ONE NOTE:
Im seeing alot of following so please, lets calm down and not get TOO excited...im happy the system is going well, but some day itll lose money and dont let it break your heart...
i treat this system kinda like long term investments (401k's, 403k's, IRA's)...I put a lil bit of money in alot of plays...This, FOR ME, works. It works because i try to grind at least one unit a day...which in a month totals to be more than 30 units...people wanna get 5 - 10 units a day, but then the losing days are big..which I HAVE THOSE TOO...
so THAT is why the system picks a side in EACH game and i bet a lil bit...you dont see me betting 5 units in a system play right? The times ive done that, last week, week before, last year, ive lost too much...Last week i got brave a faded matzuzaka vs R ROMERO for 500 and lost...also, the BOS vs NYY game one this year...i went in with 1000...and lost..so instead of having disastrous days like that, i keep it light with .5x, .75x, 1x...etc.
once i gain another 15 units im changing to 1x plays instead of .75x plays. we JUST changed to .75x plays from .5x due to my increase in BR, but i try to bet around 2-2.5% of my roll on each play...to some, that is insane...fack you.
Jorge
Jorge quick question, are these the system plays?
yes...except as i noted above..the system calls for a play on BOS ML and on CWS ML..which i wont do, so i am fading the system in those two plays..also, im playing light (.50x on several games) because im not so confident on these...
play for shitz and gigglez
78773742-14/21/11 11:24am$218.75$175.00
Pending4/21/11 1:15pm WTA Tennis 209 A.Radwanska Games Won/K.Barrois Games Won Over 18½ -125*
I like how you came up with this based on the lines and line movement. Everyone has their tricky little ways of finding a system that works whether it be trends, lines, or stats. GL to you!
well, lines have EVERYTHING figured into them..the one thing u gotta decode from lines, is HOW much of it is public perception..thats why u gotta know teams and pitchers...
i was SOOOOO close to making a 3x wager on the OVER in the CIN/ARI game, but i didnt wanna be wasting money! fack! 5 runs in 1 inning!
Ya 5 in the first was rough for me. I'm hoping they hold UNDER... fingers crossed.
why would u bet the under? Sorry, jsut makes no sense to me...the way u gotta look at this game is that both pitchers could give up alot, so u kinda dont wanna trend towards the under..more towards the over..
ALSO, in reading the lines, the first TT that came out for this game were OVER 3.5 for each team, with the TOTAL being at 8...then it moved to CIN TT 4, ARI TT 3.5, TOTAL 8, which right there tells u the game is trending towards over...
i dont hope the under holds bec that means my ARI bet loses..sorry bud...but bol to ya in the rest of the day
At this point since we're already over... Go Arizona! ha.
So what exactly you are looking for in the lines and how can you tell if it's the public moving it or the books?
Im not an expert on lines, but based on my logs and my research this is my opinion:
i look at opening lines because once the lines are released, then the public is what mostly changes it. That first line is what the books are calling to be "fair." its not necessarily fair, but there are subtleties to lines that are tell tale signs of outcomes.
Its like the theory about chaos. There is a theory that states something along the lines that even chaos is controlled. So even if the books' lines are off because all they are doing is trying to sway people, there are still patterns.
Then the public move the lines. But you know whats interesting, the lines that have ZERO movement. One of the more curious lines last night which didnt move by this morning was the BAL vs MIN line for today. That line opened at -134/155 but then this morning was -134/150. The original line suggests i take MINNY, but the change suggests that I take BAL.
I decided that the play stands, but in reality, I think BAL wins tonight. The way that line changed. I just dont wanna deviate from my system so much. I deviated from a few plays already, so ill keep this play as is..but in actuality, i think BAL wins based on this change.
ADDING ADDL JUICE TO my favorite wagers tonight.
78785437-14/21/11 4:15pm$25.00$31.25Pending4/21/11 7:10pm MLB Baseball 957 Houston Astros +125* vs New York Mets (J Happ - L - Action C Capuano - L - Action)
78785437-24/21/11 4:15pm$25.00$32.50Pending4/21/11 7:10pm MLB Baseball 959 Pittsburgh Pirates +130* vs Florida Marlins (J McDonald - R - Action C Volstad - R - Action)
78785437-34/21/11 4:15pm$131.25$125.00Pending4/21/11 6:40pm MLB Baseball 964 Tampa Bay Rays -105* vs Chicago White Sox (G Floyd - R must Start J Niemann - R must Start)
78785437-44/21/11 4:15pm$27.00$25.00Pending4/21/11 8:10pm MLB Baseball 967 Cleveland Indians -108* vs Kansas City Royals (J Tomlin - R - Action O'Sullivan - R - Action)
CASH THAT $HIT!
Last two plays are totals. I was waiting for these to drift towards under so we could get a better price...here is one, the next comes later:
78786402-14/21/11 4:43pm$300.00$315.00Pending4/21/11 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 959 Pittsburgh Pirates/Florida Marlins Over 9 +105* (J McDonald - R must Start C Volstad - R must Start)
Thanks. That was some great insight. So you putting money on games when the line moves in their favor (better odds) or when more money comes in on them?
It seems like you put more money on the opposite side of where the majority of the money is going to get the better return.
sorry guys, for allt he changes to the card, but this change is absolutely necessary:
PHI -108 1.5x
(this cancels the .5x of SDG wager, with a net return of 1x. IF YOU DIDNT PUT IN THE SDG WAGER, then PLAY PHI 1x ONLY)
No, i dont so much do the line change that way. I dont put money based on the public, or where money is...
What I see is that If a ML moves alot, but the RL stays put, then that says something...for example:
TEAM X ML -135 RL 155
moves to:
TEAM X ML -115 RL 155
If the line goes from -135 to -115, in a perfect world you would think that this means the team originally favored is actually "OVER" favored and now its LESS dominant, as per the line. But then why wouldnt the RL MOVE? the RL should move accordingly if the total stays the same.
The RL doesnt move means the following (IN A PERFECT THEORETICAL WORLD): the odds of TEAM X winning SU are less as per the ML price change, however, the RL staying put means that the odds of TEAM X winning by 2 or more stay the same...
THIS MEANS the PUBLIC IS BETTING THE WRONG WAY! the ML is changing, but they aint gonna give you a better RL, say at +185, bec the odds are the odds! RL stats are sharper than ML IN MY OPINION...
do your research and youll see what im taklking about...
as i said before, this is only ONE EQUATION of the total algorithm..just the tip of the iceberg...but yes, this is part of it..that move means things..the original line opening means things...the overnight shift MEANS ALOT!
BOL
Jorge
Oh I see what you mean now. Great stuff Jorge! Keep it up.
LAD screwed us in the 9th...wtf
Jorge, I was able to trans. Pts in post #12 but now its not allowing me.
i'm tailing ya jorge!!
Maybe I was a little quick to jump the gun on LAD...but this should not be extra innings right now!
Real nice picks jorge....you seem to have a real handle on your system!
Does your system work for other sports? It should right?
You bet both favs? I would have thought colorado was the fishy line.Calculations? Various algorithms were written to decode opening line prices, line changes, etc. That being said, the part of the system to be careful with is that alot of lines are public perception, but most lines are pretty accurate as to outcome of the game. NO that doesnt mean that a -180 fave is accurate to win..NOT AT ALL...ALOT MORE is hidden between the lines...between ML, RL, TT, TOTAL, opening line, line changes overnight, all the info I NEED IS THERE...
The filters im trying to put in place are more STATS specific...but think of this...BOOKS have ALLLLLLL THE STATS FIGURED OUT...
Tease your brain a bit - have you ever wondered why this line would look like this:
apr 15th: COL -148 ML 185 RL 8.5 TOT @ HOME
apr 13th: LAA -148 ML 135 RL 8.5 TOT @ HOME
MONEYLINE's the same...why is the line different? why the difference in the lines? what does THIS LINE TELL US!!!!!!
Well, just for your info, i bet both games, and won them...based on what ive decoded from the lines...alot mroe info is needed than jsut this, but that is jsut the tip of the iceberg.
cool man...tail the ones u like...its your MONEY!
Jorge
Good $hit Brosef!!! I always knew the line changes were a big part of picking winners...among a slue of other factors. They def suckered me in_in the past. I never thought to look at both the RL movement in conjunction w/ ML movement. Deezam thats some good good! Props
So does the system assign thru a pts system or ratings which plays are deemed the strongest?
bol tnight brosefski
Watching the tb game makes me wanna kick myself in the ass for going against the systyem. System called cws but I filtered tb. Fack!
Other than that I'm pretty pleased so far. The over hit easily in fla and it looks like we are around even flirting w plus money. One that is surprising me is hou.
Whatever. I try not get too attached to one play or the other.
Ill answer all ur questions tomorrow morning when I can. Right now I cannot. Sorry.
But briefly let me say no. The amunts are decide by me. The system doesn't weight one more than the other. Which has been working.
It doesn't work for anything else bec each sport is priced diff and treated differently by books.
No. Both lines were fine and cashed as I expected.
U know what I been running into? The system is intricate enough to pick the plays and alllllls I gotta do is just play all evenly for same amounts yet I keep filtering and bullshittting and keep shooting myself in the foot.
Starting tomorrow ill try to just flat bet all. We will see
Hey man. I don't mind emotions through a game but don't be calling games till game is done. Flukes go either way. Walk off homeruns go either way. So no complaints with losses or wins
Lad won. So plase don't call it before they actually lost!
Have some respect for the plays. And have faith in whatever system or method u partake in. Whether it be mine or any other.
Only way to do things is with dertermination. I'm not promising anyone anything here. I'm just determined to reach my two hundrer unit goal for the season. 100 before allstar break!
Flat bet is your best opportunity. Don't take this the wrong way, but you said earlier you don't fall in love with one over the other, but yet you up your bets on others Just my 2 cents.
great work, jorge, and thanks for discussing your methodology. keep choppin wood.
Sbot420 gave jorge1 2 SBR Point(s) for this post.
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