[soldier1047]

Great work yesterday, guys!

[playr101]

Great day yesterday .. let's keep the $ coming System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase): fade Angels game 3 fade Bluejays game 3 System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 5 game chase): tail Cardinals game 2 tail Red Sox game 2 tail Tigers game 2 tail Rays game 1 (yesterday's game was postponed)

got the same...

-playr101

[stevex]

black and playr thanks for updating, big day today for the system!

black, if you could keep posting the updates everyday like you do early that would be great!

[jahred6999]

All this labor talk is making me bored!

[black666]

black, if you could keep posting the updates everyday like you do early that would be great!

that's the plan.

I think it's always best if more than 1 guy is keeping track. There will be days when I don't have time to check the thread and / or scores and then there will be days when ebbearsfb1 doesn't have the time. Plus, this way we are double checking each other and Europe guys in here also get a chance to place some bets

I'm also currently working on a Java program for backtesting the last couple of years. Will be interesting to see how well both systems did in the past...

[playr101]

I was posting them.. but it got to cluttered...

-playr101

[ebbearsfb1]

Looks like u guys got this under control, good luck

[ghislaine]

playr101, understand what your saying, the repetitive questions do get annoying, but ebbears posting the plays everyday and what game there at (1st game, 3rd game, etc.) is helpful.

Yup, I agree - wich I usually do with this dude - following a lotta systems and I really really appreciate someone posting them !!
So a big big thanks to ebbears and points follo...

[black666]

System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):

fade Giants game 1

System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 5 game chase):

tail Red Sox game 3
tail Tigers game 3
tail Pirates game 1

[stevex]

Thanks for the update black, I say we make some more money today!

Good night last night for the system.

[himeshforex]

guys need any help with abcktesting gimme a shout , Good Luck

[playr101]

need Bos to pull it out... to get atleast 1 today...



-playr101

[black666]

Not the best day yesterday - but you gotta fight through the hard times .. at least the RedSox won.
I'm halfway done with my backtesting program .. let's hope I get some results this weekend on how the systems really did in the last couple of season.

Anyway..today's games:

System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):

fade Giants game 2
fade Padres game 1

System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 5 game chase):

tail Tigers game 4
tail Pirates game 2
tail Braves game 1

[ghislaine]

thanks for this !! should I give my daily points to You black or wait for ebbears post... ??

[caseyj16]

good luck with this. im still not very sure how this works

[honeyeater]

good luck with this. im still not very sure how this works

I just can't help myself. As you serious? Do you just read the last post and then post yourself? If a team gets shut out bet on it to lose again- If a team Shuts Out another team bet on them to win again- keep betting until you win. If you lose 5-6 times life sucks. period.

[stevex]

black thanks for posting man, keep 'em coming and will get it back today!

[stevex]

The thing I LOVE about this chase is the fact that we get to play Dogs as well.

[cancan]

Best of luck with your picks

[ghislaine]

Stevex, I pmd You, pretty please look it up

[Betting Guru]

this system is really good. thanks for continuing to post the picks and let's keep the winners coming!

[ghislaine]

and wow, thanks for doing the backtest Black !! cant wait to see those results

[Duby]

Very nice work in here guys!

[ChicagoCover]

Looking to tail. Can we i see the hitting rate%?

[black666]

Ok, so I've finished my Java program and did a backtest for the last 6 seasons (2005-2010). Here are the results:

System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):

Season 2005 total 246 - 7
Season 2005 worst teams:
BAL 4-1 0.8
CLE 8-2 0.8
BOS 4-1 0.8

Season 2006 total 242 - 7
Season 2006 worst teams:
CHW 4-1 0.8
WSN 6-1 0.857
NYM 7-1 0.875

Season 2007 total 227 - 3
Season 2007 worst teams:
PHI 2-1 0.667
ARI 6-1 0.857
WSN 10-1 0.909

Season 2008 total 262 - 3
Season 2008 worst teams:
CHW 9-2 0.818
TBR 6-1 0.857

Season 2009 total 255 - 2
Season 2009 worst teams:
NYY 4-1 0.8
OAK 7-1 0.875

Season 2010 total 308 - 4
Season 2010 worst teams:
CHW 4-1 0.8
DET 8-1 0.889
CHC 12-1 0.923


6 year total 1540 - 26
6 year total worst teams:
CHW 48-4 0.923
OAK 52-3 0.945
TBR 20-1 0.952

Game 1: 787 - 779
Game 2: 377 - 402
Game 3: 195 - 207
Game 4: 107 - 100
Game 5: 48 - 52
Game 6: 26 - 26


System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 5 game chase):

Season 2005 total 247 - 8
Season 2005 worst teams:
CIN 0-1 0.0
PIT 11-3 0.786
MIL 4-1 0.8

Season 2006 total 244 - 8
Season 2006 worst teams:
WSN 2-1 0.667
SEA 5-1 0.833
MIL 7-1 0.875

Season 2007 total 230 - 2
Season 2007 worst teams:
NYM 8-1 0.889
SFG 9-1 0.9

Season 2008 total 255 - 9
Season 2008 worst teams:
WSN 6-2 0.75
BAL 3-1 0.75
SDP 5-1 0.833

Season 2009 total 254 - 5
Season 2009 worst teams:
BAL 2-1 0.667
CLE 5-1 0.833
KCR 8-1 0.889

Season 2010 total 310 - 4
Season 2010 worst teams:
LAD 14-2 0.875
COL 11-1 0.917
OAK 15-1 0.938

6 year total 1540 - 36
6 year total worst teams:
PIT 41-5 0.891
WSN 31-3 0.912
BAL 37-3 0.925

Game 1: 829 - 747
Game 2: 374 - 373
Game 3: 202 - 171
Game 4: 83 - 88
Game 5: 52 - 36

Conclusio:

Over a 6 year sample, each team except PIT has a winning % of over 90% with both systems. I made System #2 a 6 game chase and then the results look like this:

6 year total 1549 - 18
6 year total worst teams:
CLE 49-3 0.942
COL 43-2 0.956
PIT 44-2 0.957

Game 1: 825 - 742
Game 2: 372 - 370
Game 3: 201 - 169
Game 4: 81 - 88
Game 5: 52 - 36
Game 6: 18 - 18

Now every team is over 92% for both systems.
Another conclusion is that omitting teams (like the original system suggests) seems like a bad idea. Why omit a team from a system that is over 92% and has like 2 or 3 losses over a 6 year span? Sure, you get rid of the 3 losses but also of the 30-40 wins. Since chases can get very expensive, it might make sense to cut out one or the other loss, but you need to use a labby with this system anyway, or else bets will get reaaaally high. And if you are using a labby, you should love a team that adds 49-3 to a system .. you will make the bets that you lost during the 3 chase losses back anyway + the wins.

Changes I will make:

• I will play both systems as a 6 game chase
• I will not omit any teams

If you don't like it, feel free to stick to the original rules. You can also add your own filters .. if you don't like a particular chase, feel free to sit out.
Whatever you do, USE A LABBY!! Just take the following individual game statistics from System 1:

Game 1: 787 - 779
Game 2: 377 - 402
Game 3: 195 - 207
Game 4: 107 - 100
Game 5: 48 - 52
Game 6: 26 - 26

If you use a labby for each game # and stick to the labby rules (add one number if you lose, remove 2 numbers if you win), you will be fine and make tons of $$$. Remember, bankroll management is key for a chase system!

I'll also do some manual backtesting to see if I have some bugs in my program, but so far everything seems fine after manually backtesting 4-5 teams.

[ChicagoCover]

Now looking back at my post, sorry for the typo. You should know what I mean

[black666]

Ok..here we go for today's games (according to the adapted system)

System 1 (Fade a team that has been shutout - 6 game chase):

fade Giants game 1
fade Astros game 1
fade Rockies game 1

System 2 (Tail a team that shut another out - 6 game chase):

tail Tigers game 5
tail Braves game 2
tail Nationals game 1
tail Brewers game 1
tail Pirates game 1

For rules and stats on both systems, check out post #445 in this thread

[stevex]

black you are the man! It's always nice to see a system that did well in the past and as we can see it did. Implement a labby and you're good to go to.

Lets make that money today!

[playr101]

good shit black666...



now I just need DET to pull it in today

-playr101

[ghislaine]

Thanks Black, made my day !!!
Let`s get paid tonight as well

[playr101]

DET blew it...

series loss .... for System #2

-playr101

[atari5200]

i'm going with black666 here to make both systems a 6 game chase. My labby lines will work out better that way. It was a rough night. No winners. It'll all be worth it in the end.

[stevex]

That's the attitude to have Atari. A rough night tonight, but use a labby and will be all good. Remember this isn't a sprint it's a walk and will profit in the long run. Tomorrow will make that money! Thanks for keeping the thread updated black.

[cancan]

Let's have some winners today

[Duby]

Very nice research black666.....Now it gives us numbers to work with.