[Mirar Baseball]

The Australian Open begins in a little over a week. I'm excited about it!!!Let's make this tournament a profitable one. Considering that more money is wagered on tennis during the 8 'major' weeks than the other 40+ weeks of a tennis year*, the opportunies should be plentiful.

Main draw: January 14 (FRI)
Play starts: January 17 (MON)
Final date: January 30 (SUN)

link



Federer and Nadal, the top two ATP ranked players are favored by the bookmakers to win the first major tournament of 2011. Since Australian Open Champion futures market opened two months ago on Pinnacle, Roger's stock has risen significantly (from +350 to +220 for -59%), while Rafael's dropped (from +185 to +210 for +13%).

Last year's final 2010:
(1) Federer def. (5) A.Murray 6-3 6-4 7-6

Murray's future has remained at +670 since opening.
Soderling: +1771 to current +2546 (+43%).
Djokovic: +875 to current +1034 (+18%)

Every other contender can make an incredibly optimistic punter from +4200 (Roddick +12% and Del Potro +137%) to +15118 (Bagdatis) and +22567 (Gulbis), although I don't expect anyone outside of Cyprus and Latvia spend much cash on the latter pair. These prices reflect how likely the oddsmakers think either player is to beat both Roger and Rafael during the same tournament, in a five-set format. The chance of neither Nadal nor Federer making the final is probably under 5%*.



Post your estimate of how likely the 'Big Two' final is. Last year, Betfair, Pinnacle and Bet365 all had this market priced up (although only the latter is available to the USA-based bettors)

My prediction: off the top of my head I'd say that likelihood is around 35%*.

'Federer-Nadal final? - YES' opens at +250 and quickly gets bet down to +225-ish*. This means that at 35% I'd have to make a sizeable wager and enjoy Federer's flowing tennis mixed with a couple of nailbiters courtesy of Nadal (including at least one comeback from two sets down!*). Eventually I would try to sell this bet at QF stage, before Nadal faces either Davydenko, Soderling or Djokovic.


*Please comment on my estimates, and post yours.

[Mirar Baseball]

less than 24 hours until main draw

please post prices your book offers for this bet as soon as they become available!

p.s. Federer has predictably become the favorite to win it all this year: federer +185, nadal +215 at pinnacle

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Draw is less than a hour away. Will prolly take ages though.

[kingsr]

Sell the bet? What do you mean?

[Mirar Baseball]

Sell the bet? What do you mean?

'buy' the bet = wager on a player to win a tournament (a match), to back him
'sell' the bet = wager against ^^^^^^... also known as 'lay' a player

selling is easiest done through a betting exchange (matchbook, betfair), but can be done with traditonal sportsbooks as well

[Mirar Baseball]

Draw is less than a hour away. Will prolly take ages though.

do you know if it's televised? a long night of betting ahead, would love to watch it the show

[kingsr]

Ahaaaa thanks for the clarification. Here in Aus we call it hedging or laying your bet

[revnecro1273]

Ahaaaa thanks for the clarification. Here in Aus we call it hedging or laying your bet

most places it is referred to as hedging

[Mirar Baseball]

Engrish isn't my first language

[Mirar Baseball]

The best price I've found so far is +170. I'm not touching that!

[Boscoe]

i'm thinking nadal gets knocked out early. good luck though.

[Glitch]

fed to win it all is around +190 on 5dimes...i like that bet a lot better.

[roon]

I think Nadal gets it done this year. I think federer will bow out in the quarters and Nadal should win over anyone else. I know the Aussie isnt his stongest event, but he's the best player in the world and will get the rafa slam.

[Mirar Baseball]

I think Nadal gets it done this year. I think federer will bow out in the quarters and Nadal should win over anyone else. I know the Aussie isnt his stongest event, but he's the best player in the world and will get the rafa slam.

It's a perfect time to back him then.

[Mirar Baseball]

30 minutes until Round 1 matches begin.

This prop is still being traded at around +180 which is of no betting interest to me.

I've gone ahead with Djokovic to win his quarter at -115. If you have any 'fun' future/prop bets, feel free to post them!

[Mirar Baseball]

Decent start by the top three horses:

Federer 18 - 5 Lacko
Nadal 11 - 0 Daniel (ret.)
Djokovic 18 - 5 Granollers

Who of the three do you think will drop a set first ?

[Mirar Baseball]

The best price I've found so far is +170. I'm not touching that!

currently +160 on betfair

[Mirar Baseball]

currently +150 ... after federer had a foot out of the door... what the hell??? +150?!??

[Mirar Baseball]

Around +135 before nadal's third round match.

[Mirar Baseball]

The way this tournament is playing out... I think both Federer and Nadal will be favored around -280 to -300 against Djokovic and Murray. Therefore I couldn't help betting Final Federer-Nadal? YES at evens on betfair... Good luck to me!

[kingsr]

I like that bet alot

[Mirar Baseball]

I will only like it until Federer opens a -150 favorite over Djokovic or Murray takes Nadal down

[Mirar Baseball]

My prediction: off the top of my head I'd say that likelihood is around 35%*.

'Federer-Nadal final? - YES' opens at +250 and quickly gets bet down to +225-ish*. This means that at 35% I'd have to make a sizeable wager and enjoy Federer's flowing tennis mixed with a couple of nailbiters courtesy of Nadal (including at least one comeback from two sets down!*). Eventually I would try to sell this bet at QF stage, before Nadal faces either Davydenko, Soderling or Djokovic.

Or hurts himself badly enough to lose to David Ferrer. This isn't how I planned it. Took a small loss (would have taken a much larger loss if the odds were acceptably high at the beginning of the tournament).

GG Rafa!

[Jrod124]

tough break there. I lost on the Rafa/Fed final prop as well. But still have Fed to win alive. Lets get that one!

[Mirar Baseball]

wow... what the hell is going on!!!