"Looking at Rafa's win here in 2008 when he was healthy as he claims to be now, in the whole tournament he dropped only 41 games playing 21 sets of tennis. So far in 2010 he's dropped 61 games in 18 sets of tennis.
In 2008 he played the #1 and #3 world ranked players, in 2010 he has yet to play anyone in the top 20. (As an interesting side note in 2008 he played 4 left handers, in 2010 he's played 3 lefties).
In the 2008 final against Federer, he was priced at 1.33. Against Soderling, his current price for today's match is 1.3. I'm not sure the prices should be so similar. I don't believe the 2010 Rafa is playing at the same level as the 2008 Rafa.
Furthermore, the match up with Soderling causes genuine concern for him. He's said as much in his press conference the other day.
In commentary earlier in the week, Mark Woodforde said an ex-Spanish player (who he didn't name) had suggested the Rafa camp were concerned Soderling had beaten Federer. They wanted Federer to win as Rafa knows he cannot lose to Federer over 5 sets at Roland Garros. With Soderling, given what happened last year, he's not so sure and confident he can win."
Rafa and his coaches will say what they need to say to get Sod and his camp thinking.
I don't believe Rafa needs to play on his A game to beat Soderling Shari. He can play the same way he's been playing through this tourney and easily beat Soderling imo. Soderling got easily rattled mentally when things weren't going his way in the Berdych match. If he's shows those weaknesses early in this match, he will be finished in 4 sets max.
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Who is going to fall for Soderling tomorrow?
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