1. #1
    PharaohUB
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    Miami ATP Picks

    Been doin well lately. Goin to share my picks. I play mostly underdogs, so point isn't to win everyone, but come out ahead. Will use $100 bet/unit for tracking purposes, but 1U for me is about $500. tail at your own risk.

    Zverev to win tournament +700 (betonline). 1U
    Karatsev to win tournament +1600 (william hill). 0.5U

    Nishioka +155(betonline) 1U
    Albot +191 (betonline) 1U
    Lu 1st set +393 (betonline) 0.5U
    Djere +158(betnow) 1U
    Lopez +235 (betnow) 1U

    Waiting for a few lines to come out. Have my eye on M. Zverev depending on the line.
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  2. #2
    The Expert
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    Good luck mate, I like your "underdog tactics", that's the way to win in tennis longterm.
    Of course with betting underdogs everyone should be selective as it's proven that betting ALL underdogs in tennis is always negative in terms of profit (I've looked at Pinnacle stats for last 5 years at closing odds).
    BOL.

  3. #3
    PharaohUB
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Expert View Post
    Good luck mate, I like your "underdog tactics", that's the way to win in tennis longterm.
    Of course with betting underdogs everyone should be selective as it's proven that betting ALL underdogs in tennis is always negative in terms of profit (I've looked at Pinnacle stats for last 5 years at closing odds).
    BOL.
    Thanks. Yes I am selective. I watch almost every tennis tournament, and follow some players more closely than others. No set strategy, but just go on feel and some factors. Some players tend to show up more when they visit certain countries (Nishioka performs well in US), and some are more motivated by money than others (I feel like Albot tends to show up in bigger tournies). Some are going to be crowd favorites (Lopez - think all the spanish influence in Miami - plus he's good looking and Miami loves good looking people). He loves playing in Miami - goes every year, but jerk is already down a break . Lu 1st set is just because Querrey can come out flat sometimes, and liked the odds where they were.

    I am adding M. Zverev +130 (Betnow) 1U
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  4. #4
    The Expert
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    Yeah, I agree with everything you've written.
    From your selections, I'm with you on Zverev ML and Lopez +1.5 sets (not being opposite in any of the others).
    BOL.

  5. #5
    PharaohUB
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    Quote Originally Posted by The Expert View Post
    Yeah, I agree with everything you've written.
    From your selections, I'm with you on Zverev ML and Lopez +1.5 sets (not being opposite in any of the others).
    BOL.
    Got robbed out that +1.5 sets. Up 6-5 and serving for set he gets broken and loses in the tie break . Didnít think about not having a crowd with corona. If heís got the crowd he takes that set. Iíll have to remember that going forward. I thought Florida was all wide open
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  6. #6
    Maizey
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    Quote Originally Posted by PharaohUB View Post
    I thought Florida was all wide open
    It probably would have been wide open if not for the spring break crowds that forced restrictions to be put in place. Even so, the early round day matches don’t draw very big crowds even in normal times.

  7. #7
    PharaohUB
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    Jeezus. Nishioka up 2 breaks in the 3rd set and loses.
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  8. #8
    PharaohUB
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    Quote Originally Posted by PharaohUB View Post
    Jeezus. Nishioka up 2 breaks in the 3rd set and loses.
    At least I caught Lu first set. Querrey so hit or miss.
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  9. #9
    PharaohUB
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    Steve Johnson live +105 (Betonline) 1 U
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  10. #10
    PharaohUB
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    V Pospisil +110(betonline) 2U
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  11. #11
    stepaside777
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    could anyone report zverev match to atp.. please

  12. #12
    PharaohUB
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    Ouch. Posting plays jinx is real, lol. Haven't had a losing day in a couple weeks. Nishioka loses up TWO breaks in deciding set. Zverev loses up a break in deciding set. Popsisil looking good in 3rd set and had a break point to go up a break 3rd set and loses. Any one of those win I break even or am up.

    Nishioka +155(betonline) 1U L1U
    Lu 1st set +393 (betonline) 0.5U W 1.965U
    Djere +158(betnow) 1U W 1.58 U
    Lopez +235 (betnow) 1U L1U
    M. Zverev +130 (Betnow) 1U L 1U
    Steve Johnson live +105 (Betonline) 1U L 1U
    V Pospisil +110(betonline) 2U L 2U
    Albot plays tomorrow

    Overall 2-5 (-2.455 Units) - Will get it back.
    Pre-match bets 2-4 (-1.455 units)
    live bets 0-1 (-1 units)

    Going to try one more tonight. Hopefully Tiafoe partied too much in Miami last night. Travaglia +230 (Betnow) 1U
    Last edited by PharaohUB; 03-24-21 at 07:26 PM.
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  13. #13
    PharaohUB
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    Quote Originally Posted by stepaside777 View Post
    could anyone report zverev match to atp.. please
    You think? Thought he just ran out of steam. Maybe not in best shape right now.
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  14. #14
    The Expert
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    I've watched the game, it could go either way.
    It was a challenger level match, not having any issues with Zverev's attitude. He's ranked 280th for a reason.
    Valuable bet at these odds, 50-50, we should move on.

  15. #15
    PharaohUB
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    I do way better off just betting like an idiot and not trying to be smart and post picks. Just hit 2 unit bet +575 on kudla live and well up on the tournament now.
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  16. #16
    MOBIL19
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    Quote Originally Posted by PharaohUB View Post
    I do way better off just betting like an idiot and not trying to be smart and post picks. Just hit 2 unit bet +575 on kudla live and well up on the tournament now.
    Nothing wrong with that. You owe the boards nothing (but if you really! want to contribute, may want to post these live bets as well, at least occasionally). I love a long dog sweat lol
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  17. #17
    PharaohUB
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    Sandgren +750 (Betus). 1U

    Will update record later.
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