I am 80% sure he won't win the French Open, but my issue is that his odds are 2.16 at the moment, if I bet against him on Betfair that's approximately equivalent to a back bet at odds of 1.86...
So, on paper, odds below 2.00 for such a bet might be the worst wager of all time? The guy won 11 out of 14 French Open he entered.
But... I am reading so many tennis fans (on menstennisforums. com) stating the usual "Rafa is harder to beat on best of 5 sets", well my opinion is that the guy is aging, and his stamina and defensive game are declining. So it will take a fresher player, with younger legs to take him out.