[Copizzle]

I'm looking for help/opinions. I've made a good size wager on Nadal to win the AO before it started.

• Risk: 2150.53 - Win: 19999.93
• STRAIGHT BET
  TNT - [808002] Rafael Nadal +930

My question is when do I hedge this? I love Tsitsipas & I think he's one of next generations BIG 3/4. But Nadal has looked damn near perfect. I see Tsitsipas as a +480 dog vs Nadal. I can bet as little as $480 to win my Nadal futures ticket money back. I can also bet $1,600 on Tsitsipas to win the AO right now at 12/1. That would mean one of them (Nadal or Tsitipas) could win me 20k in the finals but it would eat at my Nadal winning it all profit. Lastly, I could let the Tsitsipas game ride, hope Nadal blows through him & hedge in the Finals against whoever. Thoughts?

[pavyracer]

You should have hedged prior to Tsitsipas game last night when he was +1200 to win the open. Only way to do it. Now you just ride your bet.

[DavidGoliath5003]

Nadal wasnt very good vs the Tiafoe serve last night.... if Tsistpas is on he could beat nadal... i would start with a small amount there

[Copizzle]

Nadal wasnt very good vs the Tiafoe serve last night.... if Tsistpas is on he could beat nadal... i would start with a small amount there

I would argue Nadal broke his serve when he needed too & didn't burn his energy when he didn't have too. Not saying he gave points away but maybe Nadal knew the kid couldn't stop his serve.

[DR225]

Bookmaker has a prop that says Nadal is +145 to win the Aussie Open and -170 to lose it. I would hedge at a site that has a similar bet but it'll be difficult to make a hedge worthy deposit unless you have bitcoin on hand. Good luck!

[flabrah5]

Bet 10k on Djokovic. Going to he him or Nadal.

Love Tsitsipas as well, but if we are all honest - Fed dominated him just lost to himself.

[DavidGoliath5003]

If Djokovic is rested which he will be i think he will destroy nadal.. djokovic plays a tired nishikori who he should ruin tonight. Next up would be Milos or Pouille... hes owned Milos over his career

[DavidGoliath5003]

I would argue Nadal broke his serve when he needed too & didn't burn his energy when he didn't have too. Not saying he gave points away but maybe Nadal knew the kid couldn't stop his serve.

I had -8 in that match... i felt like he missed alot of easy shots in rallies to allow tiafoe to hold most of his games. He looked off to me. He shouldnt be tired.

[Tboonepickem]

Nice work mate. He will be a - favorite every game, so the hedge game by game strategy can work since we are now in the semis. You can take small hedges on every opponent to cover your bet, with a larger possible hedge on the final if it is a worthy opponent.

You lose very little from the small hedges, while of course guaranteeing yourself a profit. It also protects against injuries. Sure he will probably beat Tsitsipas, but he could also walk off the court in the second set, however unlikely.

Taking into account how many matches are left for Nadal headed to the final, take a look at $1,100 on Tsitipas +450, for $4,950, guaranteeing yourself 1/4 of the parlay take.

A futures bet on Tsitsipas is could never be a true hedge. A hedge must have a binary outcome, one or the other (i.e. no possible way to lose).

[Copizzle]

I think betting on Tsitsipas for a small amount is the correct play. Reset when the Finals gets paired. Thanks for the insight.

[DavidGoliath5003]

A rested Djokovic now... guy will destroy a tired Pouille

[Poisec]

Just wait for the final IMO, Nadal should get through, it is very rare to see Nadal lose to a one handed backhand in slams.

[terpkeg]

Is this a one unit play? More than you typically bet? Was the bet made in anticipation of hedging, really making this a "Make Semi's" play? D0 you think have a strong edge on the line in the current match up? Can you mentally handle losing future late or will it cause tilt. Can't answer without this info.

Just think if you put the same risk amount on opponent here you are cutting your future in half. If you hedge here, Djokovic probably fav so are you hedging again? What is your expected return then, +150?