1. 01-21-19 08:54 AM #1
    ThinkingTrip
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    Roberto Bautista Agut win thread

    According to my analysis. Everything points on a Bautista victory.

    Bautista is the far more experienced and solid player at this stage.
    Bautista should be 100% focused, he knows what an opportunity it is to face Tsitsipas instead of Federer. He knows he must take advantage of that.
    He is playing some of the best tennis in his career, probably never been more confident than now.
    Should be able to hold nerves and stick to his gameplan and punish Tsitsipas backhand which Federer wasnt able to do.
    He will be able to rally longer than Federer, won't give Tsitipas as many free points, and he will have to work more for every point.


    Tsitsipas collected the biggest win of his career last match, and that filled him with emotions. He might still be full of emotion comming in to this match, making it very difficult to focus 100%
    He peaked in his last match against Federer. Hit the line, saved perfect breakpoints, made clutch points on clutch moments, that happens VERY rarely if ever, twice in 2 matches in a row.
    Tsitipas will have a hard time adapting to not being able to play as good as he did vs Federer. And can make him tilt, if he doesnt keep mental game on point.
    Bautista will most likely play 100% + even more, as it is a once in a lifetime opportunity for him, to be able to make it to his first ever semis in a grandslam by beating a guy like Tsitsipas instead of someone like Federer. It's a dream for Bautista, and he should be able to take advantage of the opportunity given to him. No way he he should be underdog going into this match-up, but I am saying thank you very much bookies.

    Roberto Bautista-Agut to win odds 2+
    Cheers.
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  2. 01-21-19 09:28 AM #2
    Poisec
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    Agree,
    Market slightly favoring Stefanos Tsitsipas because of the hype more than anything else.
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  3. 01-21-19 11:03 AM #3
    Goat Milk
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    Terrible bet.

    Tsitsipas will punish Agut's weak baseline strokes. His beating Federer was not a fluke, and this is Agut's first quarterfinals for a reason -- he's not built to progress deep into slams. His game is limited, and Tsitsipas is the better player in every aspect. Net, baseline and serve. This match should end fairly quickly.
    Points Awarded:

    leetreaper gave Goat Milk 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.

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  4. 01-21-19 03:21 PM #4
    DavidGoliath5003
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    How much does Agut have left in the Tank? Tistpas is diciplined for a 20 year old i can see his dad having him ready to go tonight. Tsistpas has a monster forehand so he can end the points quick. My only fear is how do you fade Agut when he hasnt lost this year yet... also federer blew so many break points 0/11
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  5. 01-21-19 03:22 PM #5
    leetreaper
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    Terrible bet.

    Tsitsipas will punish Agut's weak baseline strokes. His beating Federer was not a fluke, and this is Agut's first quarterfinals for a reason -- he's not built to progress deep into slams. His game is limited, and Tsitsipas is the better player in every aspect. Net, baseline and serve. This match should end fairly quickly.
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  6. 01-21-19 05:15 PM #6
    Wrongside
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    Quote Originally Posted by Goat Milk View Post
    Terrible bet.

    Tsitsipas will punish Agut's weak baseline strokes. His beating Federer was not a fluke, and this is Agut's first quarterfinals for a reason -- he's not built to progress deep into slams. His game is limited, and Tsitsipas is the better player in every aspect. Net, baseline and serve. This match should end fairly quickly.
    You right, you right! Tsipitas is the real deal, but you may be wrong. RBA has the perfect game for this match. Falls into his lap perfectly. His ultra steady no-nonsense approach will get it done.

    BTW, what drug is RBA on during his matches? Adderall?
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  7. 01-21-19 06:58 PM #7
    jtoler
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    other than coming off of beating fed and a letdown of sorts Id lean tsit. he looked horrible at us open after winning some big matches a couple tournies before. bautista is looking good saw almost all of match against cilic not easy to win pts against bautista right now but he could have easily lost again cilic. cilic's serve was pretty ineffective and he committed a ton of ue's 73 to be exact and still almost won. have watched bautista for prob a decade and can be chokey. so far this tourney we've seen him be up 2-love in sets and it go to 5 sets. might have a prob early with the height of tsit's topspin but bautista is good at adjusting. tsit has unusual style to me everything about him kinda old school even down to his looks and gear. can see tsit raising his level more in the end barring he isnt bothered by beating fed which I doubt he is he's beaten big names before and although it was exhibition he took fed to 2 breakers earlier this year.
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  8. 01-21-19 07:01 PM #8
    DavidGoliath5003
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    The issue is unless Tsispas hits consistant winner he will not win... usually great matches are followed up by average matches
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  9. 01-21-19 07:11 PM #9
    jtoler
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidGoliath5003 View Post
    The issue is unless Tsispas hits consistant winner he will not win... usually great matches are followed up by average matches
    right he has to hit quite a bit of them so not easy at all, cilic was firing missiles and bautista was getting a racket on it and getting many of them back, on thinking more I think this is bautista's to lose. going back and forth on this one
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  10. 01-21-19 07:17 PM #10
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by jtoler View Post
    right he has to hit quite a bit of them so not easy at all, cilic was firing missiles and bautista was getting a racket on it and getting many of them back, on thinking more I think this is bautista's to lose. going back and forth on this one
    My thoughts are Agut first set... hes come out strong in most of his matches. It might take time for Tsistpas to guage agut so alot of Unforced errors may come early.
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  11. 01-21-19 07:53 PM #11
    ThinkingTrip
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    People keep talking about how Bautista opponents make so many unforced errors. Why do you think they do that? You think they would have done that vs any player, or you think it might have something to do with Bautista forcing his opponents into 20+ hit rallies on almost every point. When you are forced into long rallies or to hit 2-3 extra winner shots than you usually would have to do, your errors will show. Bautista is forcing the errors from his opponents with raw baseline power.
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  12. 01-21-19 07:55 PM #12
    leetreaper
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    Right off the bat he breaks TsiTsi who was up 40-15 in the first game
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  13. 01-21-19 07:55 PM #13
    sunshineSpecial
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    It's interesting to see Bautista playing like this. He's always been elite, but couldn't stay at the top for extended periods. Not sure about Tsitsipas' consistency yet. He beat an expired Fed.
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  14. 01-21-19 08:24 PM #14
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Close match. Im not sure how long Agut can go for
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  15. 01-21-19 08:33 PM #15
    jtoler
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    Quote Originally Posted by ThinkingTrip View Post
    People keep talking about how Bautista opponents make so many unforced errors. Why do you think they do that? You think they would have done that vs any player, or you think it might have something to do with Bautista forcing his opponents into 20+ hit rallies on almost every point. When you are forced into long rallies or to hit 2-3 extra winner shots than you usually would have to do, your errors will show. Bautista is forcing the errors from his opponents with raw baseline power.
    not in the cilic match theyre called unforced errors for a reason. cilic just insists on hitting ultra flat shots and as usual many were going into the net
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  16. 01-21-19 08:36 PM #16
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Shoulda won the 1st set..... guy is running on fumes. Could be a beat down now
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  17. 01-21-19 08:37 PM #17
    jtoler
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    small wager on tsit down break early in the 1st, will be fun seeing bautista try and raise his game
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  18. 01-21-19 08:37 PM #18
    europe_baller
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    Yeah not sure how he can win 2nd set
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  19. 01-21-19 08:38 PM #19
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by jtoler View Post
    small wager on tsit down break early in the 1st, will be fun seeing bautista try and raise his game
    Same
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  20. 01-21-19 08:39 PM #20
    DavidGoliath5003
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    I just took Tsistpas second set
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  21. 01-21-19 08:45 PM #21
    DavidGoliath5003
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    What a shit show
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  22. 01-21-19 08:47 PM #22
    europe_baller
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    Lol.. bovada keeps blocked live set and match.. wth.. i have 100$ on ml agut before match but wanted to hedge some..not up break again
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  23. 01-21-19 09:14 PM #23
    Demonata
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    Liking how shitsandpiss is playing!
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  24. 01-21-19 09:15 PM #24
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Yeah i have no idea now
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  25. 01-21-19 10:07 PM #25
    DavidGoliath5003
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    Quote Originally Posted by DavidGoliath5003 View Post
    How much does Agut have left in the Tank? Tistpas is diciplined for a 20 year old i can see his dad having him ready to go tonight. Tsistpas has a monster forehand so he can end the points quick. My only fear is how do you fade Agut when he hasnt lost this year yet... also federer blew so many break points 0/11
    Well... Bautista Agut looks gassed now. Id be blown away if he came back now
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  26. 01-21-19 10:11 PM #26
    Demonata
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    Amazing shot!!!!
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  27. 01-21-19 10:13 PM #27
    Pinocchio
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    I think Bautista Agut is injured. His moving was suspect in the last few games of the third set, and he kept dropshotting Tsitsipas time and time again (even when he had better options), something I've never seen him do so often, so I doubt it was his strategy by choice. Tsitsipas to win set 4 it is.
    Last edited by Pinocchio; 01-21-19 at 10:19 PM.
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  28. 01-21-19 10:26 PM #28
    gorwin068
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pinocchio View Post
    I think Bautista Agut is injured. His moving was suspect in the last few games of the third set, and he kept dropshotting Tsitsipas time and time again (even when he had better options), something I've never seen him do so often, so I doubt it was his strategy by choice. Tsitsipas to win set 4 it is.
    Agreed. Definitely worth a nice play on Tsitsipas to win set 4
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  29. 01-21-19 10:27 PM #29
    ThaTopMoron
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    have over 41.5 in a parlay... kansas ML first leg cashed

    just need 10 in 4th set or Agut to win 4th set to force 5th

    come on guys keep holding serve!
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  30. 01-21-19 10:36 PM #30
    ThaTopMoron
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    Boom! over 41.5 gonna cash

    I'm awful at over and spread bets in tennis
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  31. 01-21-19 10:41 PM #31
    gorwin068
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    Surprisingly Bautista is still serving well and holding serve comfortably
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  32. 01-21-19 11:02 PM #32
    gorwin068
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    finally Tsitsipas took the 4th set and match by Tiebreak 7-6
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  33. 01-21-19 11:02 PM #33
    ThaTopMoron
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    Quote Originally Posted by gorwin068 View Post
    Surprisingly Bautista is still serving well and holding serve comfortably
    yeah i was nervous going into the 4th for the over

    be battled to the end. nice run for him

    fade for the 20 year old winner in the semis
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  34. 01-21-19 11:54 PM #34
    Wrongside
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    Mad at myself here. I went “ head “ over heart. Usually heart gives me plenty of losers and I can deal with that, but I don’t like that I didn’t go with player I knew was better.
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  35. 01-22-19 05:14 PM #35
    pavyracer
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    Does anyone post winners in this forum? Never seen so many threads of people betting the wrongside.
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