Saw many matches on both tournaments this week, so this might help some of you to make decisions. Dubai finals first. Whoever watched Kasatkina yesterday is probably surprised with these current odds. She was just relenthless, refusing to go down, saved match points like in Konta match previously and was victorious in the end. key to break Kasatkina's spirit is to bully her second serve. She has no confidence in that shot. But none of her opponents apart from Konta maybe weren't aggressive enough and determined to take advantage of that. The most important question here is if Svitolina is going to do that? I would lean towards no. She was very passive throughout most of this tournament, letting her counter-punching skills shine and opponents trying to hit through her. Vs Kasatkina that's not the smartest thing to do, I believe. Once you let her in the rally, you have to be prepared to work. And also to adapt to her top spin shots which are not that often in WTA nowdays. Shape on those shots might start to bother Svitolina who can get impatient at times and that would make this match super interesting.
i don't have a play on it yet, but must admit that I'm very tempted to make a small play on Kasatkina +270.
Budapest. Kuzmova plus money seems to be the popular play around the internet. I'm gonna go out on a limb and call it "wannabe sharp play". Just because you like the new exciting player on the tour, it doesn't mean it's a sharp play. Kuzmova got to the semifinals as a lucky loser. Had some nice wins, although some of the might be exagareted, like the last two for example. Lisicki is just a UE machine and Martic actually was slightly better in first set, but once she failed to stay in the set in 10th game, she just gave up.
How I think this one will play out is about the ability for sailing smooth throughout their service games. Kuzmova has the ability to serve big at times, but her 1st serve % will fluctuate at times and offer break opportunities to her opponents. Especially to a confident player like Van Uytvacnk who will get after that 2nd serve everytime. While Alisson in this tournament can hold her serve much firmly. So I belive that Kuzmova needs a really big baseline performance today just to keep it close and at this price it's just not worth counting on that.
At the moment, I think the market has this one right. I'd wait for some public money to come in on Kuzmova later and maybe then jump on Van Uytvanck, but if it doesn't happen, wait for in-play where a good opportunity might present itself.
Cibulkova-Barthel. Both were pretty convincing in this tournament. Barthel had a big win vs defending champion Timea Babos in r16. Clash of the styles with Barthel being the aggressor and Cibulkova using her movement and counter punching ability to force Barthel into extra shot and possibly an error. Considering the playing conditions and Barthel's form, I see value with her at these odds. If you don't agree, You can bet vs me on Cibulkova at best price in this thread - https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...ova-200-a.html
Rough day for you sorry bud, I thought the price on Svits today was a steal.
Kasatkina said she was dead after the Mugz match so it was kind of a no-brainer to me but I guess you had to watch her post-match interview to know that and I happened to randomly see it on tweeter and pounded accordingly.
Just an FYI for Kasatkina:
I've watched her progress since before anyone even knew who she was. Was an instant fan.
She had a great week but never has the legs after matches like the one she played against Mugz (the best match of the week by the way).
Kasatkina has the ability on any day to out rally and tire people out, but the problem with her is the day after.
Definitely needs an adjustment in her conditioning if she wants to be able to finish off tournaments after an unreal run of impressive wins to get to that final this week.
She still has some baby fat to get rid of and after 3 years of watching her, I'm surprised she hasn't gotten into better shape by now. Still a kid though, so her dedication and training will develop and improve if she wants it bad enough.
Was sad to know before this match even started she didn't have a chance. Svits is in beast mode right now BTW.
If you want to see something totally awesome that changed Kasatkina's whole week, look at this. she was basically done in the 2nd round and looked to be in quit mode until this coach's visit down a set and a break to Konta.
Everryone needs a coach like this guy. Now she just needs a conditioning coach to go with it.
Down a set and a break, a down and out Kasatkina got a much-needed pep talk from coach Philip Dehaes.
“You’re very close. You want this? It’s beautiful out here. The weather is nice. Let’s stay another two hours.”
Wasn't that rough. I had a larger then usual bet on Barthel, because from all the information that I gathered over the past week, I came to a conclusion that there was a lot of value on that side. Didn't hit this time, but I'd do it all over again, because I trust in my work and I'm confident that over the long haul I'll be more right then wrong in my estimations where the odds should be. So we could say it was a regular losing day in a life of a bettor. More of them will come and you just have to be able to extract important informations out of it and just move forward.
Didn't have a play on Kasatkina or Van Uytvanck. Thanks for you insightful comment on Kasatkina. You are correct. I only watched her match vs Muguruza, but not the post match intereview. Knowing that she was complaining about fatigue, it might help me make a better estimation. Congratulations on your win with Svitolina!
Regarding her coach, he also had few very good points in the match vs Muguruza. After the time out where he told her that she can't just keep the ball in play and wait for errors, but has to hit it harder sometimes and go for it, even if she misses it. There was kinda turning point of the match I think. Muguruza wasn't able to put as much pressure on her from that point on and baseline rallies were more equal. I agree, great coach and motivator. I think they started to work together just couple of months back.
Actually Barthel didn't play as badly as the score would indicate. She only lost 1 serve in the 1st set and tied it up 2-2 in the 2nd. She lost both of her remaining 2 serves though so that pretty much canned it for her.
Cibulkova only lost 1 serve and that was a big difference in this match.
Didn't know that. I was not able to watch the game so I just tracked the livescore and it seemed like Barthel didn't create enough pressure on Cibulkova's serve, which was kinda my key for this bet. Because Cibulkova was bit insecure with her serve throughout the tournament and Barthel has that easy power and puts a lot of heat on that ball when returning the 2nd.
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