this surface is very slow and give nadal advantage.
to go on seppi is like to put your money in the garbage
goodl luck man
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08-08-16 05:50 AM #36
Last edited by moki; 08-08-16 at 06:19 AM.
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08-08-16 06:05 AM #37
I have Edmund winning in straights for this one as one of my picks, but will be interesting to see how Daniel presents. Also have Kasatkina on the line. I must ask why you never pick favourites though - I love a good underdog as well but sometimes taking the better player and laying the games can be a solid option.
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08-08-16 02:01 PM #38
Totally agree with you, favs are a solid option but for some reason I have always had more successful with picking dogs. I know it doesn't make sense because if I can cap "value" dogs, the opposite should apply to favs but I've just never wrapped my head around laying the games. Maybe it's something I'll get into in the future.
Originally Posted by Lightning
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08-08-16 11:00 PM #39
Results:
Daniel @ 3.05 - WIN +2.05u
Zheng @ 3.15 - LOSS -1u
Flipkens @ 3.25 - WIN +2.25u
Wozniacki @ 3.03 - LOSS -1u
Zhang @ 2.43 - LOSS -1u
Errani @ 2.66 - WIN +1.66u
Total: 3-3, +2.96u
Overall: 12-24, +0.13 units
Finally back in the positive, let's keep this thing rolling!
Pending:
Seppi @ 5.39
Paire @ 2.02
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08-09-16 04:46 AM #40
I know what you mean. Trust me, sometimes when nothing is going right I've contemplated doing what you're doing i.e. just taking underdogs, but I can't bring myself to do it because I know that overall, my style will work for me in the long run - and it does. It's just what works for you. Originally Posted by akasars
One of the best lessons I've ever learnt in terms of sportsbetting was from an older guy. We were talking about betting (can't remember how we got onto it), and discussing lines ahead of the week's AFL matches. He thought a -70.5 line was great value, and I was like, 'no way, that's huge'. So anyway, he took his -70.5 and I took a -10.5 because I thought it was 'safer', and 'more achievable'. Needless to say, I lost my bet and but his team won by 110ish. The next time I saw him, he explained that you always have to remember that the lines are sometimes a reflection of the differences between the two teams. A -70.5 looks massive, but in reality, the gulf in class between the two teams was big enough that the points were easily made up. Whereas my -10.5 was an indication that the game might have been close, and it was.
From that point forward, I was never afraid to take a massive favourite and lay huge points/games. Not to say that laying small points/games is BAD, just that often taking a massive fav with a big line isn't something to be afraid of. An example was Muguruza against Hibino. She had a -6.5 at around $2, and when I thought about it, I realised that Muguruza would have a huge advantage in every point played. Hibino would be completely outclassed, and she was. Muguruza was my -70.5 and in the end she smashed the handicap in.
Bit long winded, but just my musings haha
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08-12-16 10:00 AM #41
no good opportunities over the last few days, but here's one for today:
Shapovalov @ 2.20
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08-13-16 02:48 AM #42
Overall: 13-26, -0.64 units
Adding for tomorrow:
Lopez @ 1.99
Shapovalov @ 2.10
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08-16-16 11:42 PM #43
Overall: 13-28, -2.64 units
Tomic @ 3.00
Bencic @ 2.03
Svitolina @ 1.83
Vinci @ 2.22
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08-17-16 02:01 AM #44
Did I just see you pick a fav?
haha
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08-17-16 08:48 AM #45
hahaha, we'll see how it goes. adding a couple more for today:
Lopez @ 2.11
Stosur @ 2.25
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08-17-16 06:34 PM #46
Tomic @ 3.00 - WIN +2u
Bencic @ 2.03 - LOSS -1u
Svitolina @ 1.83 - LOSS -1u
Vinci @ 2.22 - WIN +1.22u
Lopez @ 2.11 - LOSS -1u
Stosur @ 2.25 - LOSS -1u
Today's record: 2-4, -0.78u
Overall: 15-32, -3.42u
Tomorrow's plays to come later tonight.
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08-18-16 12:19 AM #47
3 plays for tomorrow:
Konta @ 3.10
Kuznetsova @ 2.10
Coric @ 5.50
Edit: adding one early play for Friday as well
Thiem @ 2.33Last edited by akasars; 08-18-16 at 12:24 AM.
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08-19-16 12:27 AM #48
Boom, huge win today.
Konta @ 3.10 - LOSS -1u
Kuznetsova @ 2.10 - WIN +1.1u
Coric @ 5.50 - WIN +4.5u
Today: 2-1, +4.6u
Overall: 17-33, +1.18u
Since Thiem/Monfils got cancelled, here are tomorrow's plays:
Dimitrov @ 1.84
Thiem @ 3.23
Coric @ 3.10
Pliskova @ 2.02
Suarez Navarro @ 3.38
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08-19-16 05:25 PM #49
Dimitrov @ 1.84 - WIN +0.84u
Thiem @ 3.23 - LOSS -1u
Coric @ 3.10 - LOSS -1u
Pliskova @ 2.02 - WIN +1.02u
Suarez Navarro @ 3.38 - LOSS -1u
Today: 2-3, -1.14u
Overall: 19-36, +0.04u
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08-20-16 12:57 AM #50
Tomorrow's semifinal action:
Dimitrov @ 2.90
Kerber @ 2.75Points Awarded:
picopico101 gave akasars 1 Betpoint(s) for this post.
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08-21-16 12:37 AM #51
Dimitrov falling just short to Cilic, but I'll take the Kerber hit.
Today: 1-1, +0.75u
Overall: 20-37, +0.79u
Tomorrow: Pliskova @ 3.50
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08-21-16 11:05 AM #52
Adding Joanna Larsson @ 1.80
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08-21-16 01:22 PM #53
Good luck on Plis, on +4 myself. Kerber isnt really in form this tourney she's just been winning, extending points, and her opponents have been breaking down.
ONLINE
08/21/2016
12:59 AM[Ticket #: 271923672] STRAIGHT BET 08/21/2016 @ 01:13 PM MU Ka Pliskova vrs A Kerber Total and Spreads (Games)
[268629] Ka Pliskova +4-110
(Ka Pliskova vrs A Kerber)110.00 100.00 ONLINE
08/21/2016
03:43 AM[Ticket #: 271926130] STRAIGHT BET 08/21/2016 @ 01:13 PM MU Ka Pliskova vrs A Kerber Total and Spreads (Games)
[268629] Ka Pliskova +4-110
(Ka Pliskova vrs A Kerber)110.00 100.00
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08-21-16 02:29 PM #54
I
Hnnnng congrats on the Pliskova hit! Originally Posted by jtoler
Today: 1-1, +1.5u
Overall: 21-38, +2.29 units
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