Originally Posted by
terrenceross
I think Sock wins the final. And I think the odds for that to happen will be somewhere in the range of -150. Might be too much chalk to lay with how good monaco is on this surface and how much monaco has to play for. Winning this tournament is way way bigger for Monaco than Sock so that is why I need a little less chalk than -150 to place a wager on the finals. If it is anywhere close to a pickem, I would hammer sock.
Sock should have no issues breaking Monaco who proved today that he was vulnerable with his second serve. Also his first is not really powerful, it is more strategic. Sock should have no problem figuring out Monaco's first and second serve. After all, he just played serve bot.
Now lets analyze the Monaco Lopez Matchup. When did monaco look weakest? When the points were quick.
When it was a baseline rally, it looked like Monaco was very comfortable. It is safe to say his base line rally ability is pretty much the only reason that he is in the finals.
Is Lopez the type of player who tries to play quick points? Not really in my opinion and Lopez's lack of desire to get deep into rallies with monaco was his ultimate downfall. Lopez is not good enough to play risky tennis all game. He needs to get down and dirty with his opponent. And dominate his serve. That is when Lopez is the world beater we know him to be. Lopez did not want to get down and dirty and his service game was seriously less than dominant. There were about 50 times in that match where Lopez could have chosen an easy shot, continued the rally, and set the point up better for him to win it. Instead, he remained content with bailing his opponent out with risky shots. THE PUNCHLINE OF THIS MATCH ANALYSIS is that there was a point when Monaco looked weaker. It was when Lopez was actually being consistent on the service line, and when he was ending points quickly. Jack Sock proved today that he can easily fill in the gaps which ultimately led Lopez to his downfall. Consistent serves, and the ability to end points quickly. When it gets down to the nitty gritty, Sock will have to hold his own on the base line. And in this area I have more faith in Sock's ability than Lopez. Yes it is likely that Monaco may be able to win more of the longer rallies, but if Sock can continue his serving success, and win 30-40% of baseline points, he should win the match.
Added cherries on top are that Americans have historically had success in Houston, and there will no doubt be a massive crown to cheer him on. Also, Socks past success on the big stage in Houston should eliminate any nerves the kid may have. As I said, -150 is too much juice for me. Monaco likely has all the points he needs to secure himself a place in some of the larger draws but a win in the finals would give him certainty in that regard. I personally can't lay -150 against a guy who has been so hot and who has so much to play for . Praying for a good line.