[Chaz22]

Last week was quite allright.

Record was:

15W-10L
Overall Profit: +12.93

Plan of course is to build on that on this week's 3 tourneys. I will still be quite caucious and keep low unit investments. So here we go with todays matches

Marseille

Before we go into the individual matchup analysis just to let you know I will put half a unit on my avatar guy to win the whole tournament. I know the chance is unlike, but he actually was playing
ok in Montp and Rotterdam so we'll see if he can get better. Draw is not that worst if you think on the players that participate. first some qualifier, then Gasquet who returns from illness, after that Simon or Kyrgios then probably toughest opponent in Berdshit.

Gulbis to win it all 51.80 @ pinnacle
0.5u

Ok, let's dig into some 1st rounder matches.

Haase +3 2.03 vs Sousa @ pinnacle
1u

I understand that Sousa has achieved some reasonable improvement in his game and is especially good on hard courts, and Haase on the other hand can be so bad at times on this surface that it does not look
good for Dutchman. And yet I lean towards more equal outcome just because I dont believe in Sousa being able to produce stable tennis on a longer run. He has been good so far, but we'll see if can keep
up this level.

Goffin vs Chung under 21 2.06 @ pinnacle

Belgian lost to Baghdatis from a seemingly winnable position. Dont know what happened there but he actually was playing well in AO, so maybe was not prepared well enough.
Has to come out here with more motivation. Chung is a good player with a powerfule serve but Goffin should be able breaking him and there for getting through in straight sets.
Was thinking about spread here but total looks better.


Ok, that's ir for now. No clue on Paire vs Bolelli game. Normally you would pick french in France but Paire with his late game is just too bad to invest. Bolelli on the other side has been even worse.


Will later add other 2 tournament picks.

[Chaz22]

Adding

Rio

Pella 2.5 2.05 vs Isner @ pinnacle
1u

What can I say - well known fact - Isner does not enjoy playing that much on clay. He'll have to work harder on his own serve as Pella will be able to return those balls mor eften than it would be on hard courts.

Dolgopolov ML 2.00 vs Bellucci @ pinnacle
1u

Yeah, going against home player who does play well on clay is something. Especially if you invest your money on untrusty guy like Dolgopolov who can screw anyone on any day. Ill give him this chance
just because he lost in BA early so should be more focused in this one. He ha sno problem playing on clay it's just a question of giving it out. Wont be easy.

J.P.Smith ML 3.4 vs Karlovic @ pinnacle
1u

The lonely pick from Del Ray comes against big man Karlo who has some success historically in this tourn. All would be fine, but Karlo has not started his season the way he would like I suppose.
Going out of AO with that injury. Not a lot of match practice. Sure he does not need it that much as his game is so one-dimentional that he could probably sleep and serve only.
Then again 38 years....well we'll see. One thing is for sure - Smith IMO will have a chance and those odds are simply not fair.

[Jinge]

I like your plays, except Isner. I think he is underrated on clay. He has reached and won multiple tournament finals on clay. Also liked his form in the AO, we will see, bol

[posey_mvp]

Thanks for the great analysis, enjoy reading with each picks.. Do you have anymore picks for tomorrow?

[Chaz22]

Summary of Day 1

4W-0L (Total: 19W-10L)
Daily Profit: +5.54u
Overall Profit: +18.47u

Sometimes you wonder why didnt you pick clean ML instead of those small spread of 2.5 and 3. Well, this is certainly discussable. My experience shows that on long term it's more profitable to picks spreads
(not in all cases of course). For example, Pella easily could lose the deciding tiebreak and ML would be wasted.

For sure show must go on. We are on a good streak, see no point of stopping now. Especially today.

Day 2

Marseille

Pouille ML 2.32 vs An.Kuznetsov @ betfair
1u

Kuznetsov is overrated here a lot. He kind of has started extremely well this season, which would suggest that he has improved his game. Im not saying it's not the case but if you look closer at that deep run in AO where he got to the 4th round - who did he win there - Harrison, Chardy, Sela. A lucky draw indeed. Poullie was an average Joe untill last season where he showed some signs of light.
He had a nice battle against in-form Mahut in Rotterdam, now he plays in front of his crowd. I would say it's a chance not to miss.

Pospisil 2.5 2.2 vs Kyrgios @ pinnacle
1u

This is trickier because I have no idea in what state is Kyrgios. But what we know for sure is Pospisil has been palying great in doubles. Not sure if that will help today, but I would be surprised ifhe would vanish here with out the fight. I have been wrong in trusting him though, thats why I pick spread again instead of ML but wouldnt be too surprised if he won.


Benneteau ML 2.37 vs A.Zverev @ pinnacle
1u

An absolute no brainer for me. Zverev had a deep run in Rotterdam. He is still way too young to keep the same level from one tournament to the next. And Julien - he extremely needs those ATP points to boost his ranking. Finally he has won couple of matches in qualifying rounds. Shouls help his confidence. Now this is a must, even if it means loosing to Berdshit in next round.

Rio

Andujar Alba ML 3.74 vs Thiem @ pinnacle
1u

Yes, going with the fade-the-Thiem train. I cant disagree with the opinion of Thiem being fatigued after the BA run. Too many hours, too much effort. Alba is ok for clay courter. It does not matter if
Thiem wins this, you fade him next round.

That's it for now. Will certainly add more games as day progresses.

[Jeff_Black]

Don't mind the Gulbis outright. Will put $20 on myself for a return of 1k
There's no one in that draw he can't beat and I reckon guys like Berdych will use this as a springboard for Dubai etc
BOL 51s is fairly overs

[Chaz22]

So obviously this day didnt start that well with Pouille loosing, but there're plenty of matches left.

Adding some for Del Ray

Smyczek ML 2.55 vs Fritz @ pinnacle
1u

A fade material Fritz will be. He's talanted for sure, had his experience in ATP tournament final, now is the time to feel the letdown spot. Smyczek is no gimmie, should be pretty even battle but
I favour more expreinced player.

Kukushkin ML 2.05 vs Young @ pinnacle
1u

Going against Young here just because he is nowhere near his last year's form where he got himself into the finals of this.
Kukushkin can get under Donald's skin. He has shown better results this year and should be favourite hear. Books just rely too much on Young's last year.

That's it for now.

[mikefan1034]

U just bet every dog lol why even bother providing a write up we get it u just throw darts on dogs and hope they bark

[KingHawkins]

I appreciate the picks, and especially the write-up. Tailing you on a few of these.

[Chaz22]

Write-ups are not so much for you as they are for me.

[posey_mvp]

bad day today, lots of breaks, could of gone either way.. get them tomorrow Chaz..

[SCI]

Zverev played solid, but Benneteau isn't the same player. He should be in-form by now, but he just looks like he's lost a step. His career may be taking a nose dive.

[Chaz22]

Summary of Day 2

6W-5L (Total: 21W-15L)
Daily Profit: -2.45u
Overall Profit: +16.02u

Have to admit that I made too many picks. But only Pospisil pick I regret, rest had some chances.
Let's see what this day brings.

Day 3

Marseille

M.Zverev 3.5 2.04 vs D.Goffin @ pinnacle
1u

There is a high chance Goffin will screw things up here. He did not look convincing against Chung. This should be a chance for Mischa Zverev that he should really take. Ranked 175 he'll have to wait quite a lot for making the 2nd round in any other ATP tournament. Heck if he wins he might be even playing against his younger bro. Indoors suit him well for his playing style which is server and volley.
Should be a battle with Goffin coming out as a winner, but wont be easy.

Millot ML 3.42 vs Mahut @ pinnacle
1u

Not changing my startegy here going against seemingly in-form Mahut. It's a different tournament now, different day, start all over again. Not easy. Millot can give him a scramble.

Stakhovsky +1.5 sets 2.2 vs Wawa @ pinnacle
1u

Last year these players met in 1/4 finals stage and guess who won. I dont think Wawa will let that happen again, but Stakshit will make it problematic again. Wawa hasnt played since AO so can be a bit slow from the start. This should go the distance.


Cilic and Halys i think will win comfortably but i will not take those negative spreads in 1st and 2nd round stages.

Rio

Schwartzman ML 4.0 vs Thiem @ pinnacle
1u

Like I said yesterday, I just do not belive in Thiem being able to maintain the same level for this long. He won Andujar in straight sets but it was not that smooth as expected. Now Schwartzman is
again good clay courter. Let's see when does Thiem fails.

Will see if more games are to be added later on.

[arxidi]

goffin looked pretty good against goffin, and looking good against zverev rekon hes a chance to go deep?

[arxidi]

all good zverev retired!!

[Chaz22]

Agreed on being mistaken on Goffin. Zverev had a brain to retire...

[mikefan1034]

Agreed on being mistaken on Goffin. Zverev had a brain to retire...

Lol u just take every dog thinking ur sharp or something. There's no juice to pay when it's a lock like Goffin was today

[Chaz22]

Lol u just take every dog thinking ur sharp or something. There's no juice to pay when it's a lock like Goffin was today

what im thinking now is about your brainpower and unfortunately no high thoughts on that.
lolling and trolling after matches that are finished has a value of clean zero.

[xdodger19]

its hard to win with +2.5 games without winning a set, unless it goes 7-6 7-6
rather just go for the win and bet half the amount if anything,
then if the player does win a set u have to still sweat that player not getting
crushed in the third and losing your bet anyways.
So I think the +1.5 sets play is always better than the +2.5 games play

[ProDane]

Hi Chaz

I was thinking that you are a very competent tennis better, and that you have a great knowledge about tennis so here is a question for you!

Tomorrow Delbonis and Lorenzi will play each other in Rio. These guys are a team in the doubles. So what can we expect from this singles match/or watch is the typical outcome of a situation like this?

It is for sure that these guys talk off court, but do you think that they decide who should win - or will they make it to 3rd set and see who is the best? Best outcome would be a quick 2-0 match, so they don't spend too much energy so they can focus on the doubles. Am I wrong?

[posey_mvp]

what im thinking now is about your brainpower and unfortunately no high thoughts on that.
lolling and trolling after matches that are finished has a value of clean zero.

I agreed with this assessment.

[Chaz22]

Summary of Day 3

2W-1L-1P (Total: 23W-16L-1P)
Daily Profit: +2.62u
Overall Profit: +18.64u

Yesterday was really a bad day for favourites, except for the damned Thiem which turned out to be bad investment. Whoever caught Tsonga going out can consider himself lucky as these kind of upsets happen
once maybe twice in a year in men's tennis.
anyway moving on.

If you ask me on a case of Delbonis vs Lorenzi where they are paired up and now have to against each other. Does that matter? Not really. i doubt that looser of the first set will throw this match to spare energy for doubles. Just because their priority is not doubles. They are ranked 50 vs 46, Delbonis is a heavier hitter, Lorenzi is better on defense. I would take Lorenzi +2.5 games, though I agree with xlodger on +1.5 sets better than +2.5 games, especially on clay, espcially where tie-breaks have small chance to occur. The reason why I stil take +2.5 instead of +1.5 sets is very simple:
+1.5 sets odds 1.591 vs +2.5 games odds 2.04

ok, let's have a look at today's selections

Marseille

Halys +1.5 sets 1.97 vs Kuznetsov @ pinnacle
2u

Local uprising and promising newcomer should put up a fight here. Kuznetsov still has a long way to prove that Im wrong about him. Cant see him winning here in straight sets.

Millot +3.5 2.04 vai Paire*
1u

*Since this match will follow the Halys battle. I will only pick it if Halys does win that set.
I liked what i saw yesterday in Millot vs Mahut match. Paire most likely will win but it will be tough to cover that spread.


Kyrgios should win. But spread of -4 is just a bout right. Not sure what to take from that Gabas win over Simon. Is he on that rare run, or was it just Simon's failure to win.

Gulbis ML 3.44 vs Gasquet @ pinnacle
1u

Now the only big reason im picking this is because Gasquet seemingly didnt play in Rotterdam because of illness. He could be fit again, maybe it was just an official version of his no-show.
I have no information on that. Gulbis can screw any match, but he very rarely does it against top players and on main stages.

Berdych should send brother Zverev home.

from BA i have not decided yet, but to me that Lorenzi +2.5 is the best

in DRB i like Sams -1.5 sets over Krajicek. But i'll add that later on.

[Chaz22]

Just to confirm i am taking

Lorenzi + 2.5 2.02 vs Delbonis@ pinnacle
1u

[Chaz22]

Yesterday, was really a poor day and im starting to think im on a wrong path this week.
So maybe need to take a break till Dubai.

Summary of Day 4.

0W-3L (Total: 23W-19L-1P)
Daily profit: -4u and (-0.5u on the future selection)
Overall profit: +14.14u

Have to admit I couldnt resist and picked Millot +3.5 games after Halys's disappointing effort. But of course I wont count that as a win here.
Apart from that, I watched Gulbis - Gasquet match which was more or less entertaining and probably winner was decided in that first tie-breaker. But Gasquet really stood up in this one.
Oh, yeah and Lorenzi was a total opposite of what i predicted. He just gave up in the second set, and probably he saved his and his buddy's damned energy for the doubles match just like it was suggested here.

I really hate this stage of the tournament - the quaters just because i am a natural dog catcher and it just does not happen at this stage. When you think ok, this dog can actually pull it off, the favourite simply bypasses him.
Well, anyways, let's see what do we have today.

Marseille

Cilic vs Kuznetsov

My disbelief in Kuznetsov has cost me some money. In the old days, I would say ok, he got here in 1/4s rather easily, now should have a good chance of beating Cilic. I mean nevermind the h2h, he has somehwat stabilized his game, has beaten all the
beatable players this season, and has at least taken one set in all 3 this season's losses. He lost to Nadal, Monfils and Troicki.
Now if we look at the Cilic, he hasnt been convincing at all. Difficult win over Haase in 3 sets can be written off due to the 1st round syndrom. Seemingly. But previous tournaments show that he does not
get better as rounds progress. So like I said sounds like a good investment in Kuznetsov. Would I advise taking it? Absolutely, not.
The most probable outcome here is that Cilic will beat him in 2 straight but not easy sets or it goes the distance and again Cilic will beat him. I dont see any value in -4 or +3.5 either.
Skipper for me.

Kyrgios - Gasquet

Like I said, Gasquet looked more than fine. and you could think about taking him here with some spread. But Kyrgios is such a wildcard. Same like Gulbis, but more reliable nowadays. In the end Gasquet
i think will pull it off, but the main thing i aint touching this is because there is no value in anything here.

Stan vs Paire

Stan as predicted did not look on fire against Stakshit, but he just does not match well against him. It's a different story today. Paire is still low in confidence.
If you want to pick something pick Stan -4.5 or maybe even -5.5. I just think there will be one set of Paire's distruction something like 6-2 or 6-1....

Goffin vs Berdych

To me the only realistic chance where underdog can come out as victor here. The only problem here is that Birdshit tends to loose only to those ranked higher than him, against everybody else he just manages to win. So Goffin must be super-sharp here to have a chance.

Reading all this, you would have a clue what to select here.
I have chosen to pick only favourites and only on heavy spreads.

Cilic -5.5 3.5 vs Kuznetsov @ pinnacle
1u
Gasquet -1.5 sets 2.7 vs Kyrgios @ pinnacle
1u
Stan -5.5 3.4 vs Paire @ pinnacle
1u

if 2 out of 3 end up as winners I'll pick Goffin (not sure if spread or clean ML)

no input on Rio today but in general i think favs will take care of business.

DRB

I like Ram's chances against old man Becker.
Chardy can probablu upset DelPo.
Dimi and Sam can already look into their semis.