1. #1
    7Faces
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    Guys I need your advice on this one...

    Wawrinka...

    So my bookie has Stan @1.59/ Raonic @2.38

    BUT !!!

    The Set Betting looks like this.
    3-0 @4.10
    3-1 @4.40
    3-2 @5.60

    Should i slam all these 3 match results and hope for the +100 profit ?! Or is this a sucker play ?
    I know it ain't a ''lock'' but, Stan has the chance here to avenge his lost that Raonic conceded him at the start of the year.
    PS: this is the first time they facing each other in a Slam.

  2. #2
    frugalgambler
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    Do the math, you will NOT be getting a +100 profit there. Your payout should be slightly smaller compared to just taking the ML straight up.

  3. #3
    pazim
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    From what I have seen, most of the time, top players embarrass their opponents when avenging recent loss. If you have a book with live betting, I would just go with 3-0 as my initial wager, and see about 3-1, 3-2 as the match goes on. If stan loses the first set you will get better odds on him to just win the match, if he wins the first set, the odds of 3-1 and 3-2 are going to be better.
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    7Faces gave pazim 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  4. #4
    7Faces
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    Thank you for your reply, Frugal.
    Let's say I play all three for 100$
    Im down -$300, Wawrinka gets the job done, doesn't matter if he sweep or if it's a 5 setter Im getting at least $410 in return.
    Which makes my case. 410-300= 110...

  5. #5
    frugalgambler
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    In your scenario, if he sweeps you will get $410 in return, but you will also lose $200 you waged on 3-1 and 3-2 outcomes, so that will give you only $210 in return. The books are not dumb, although occasionally, you might get a better payout taking this scenarios. I am also skeptical in the strategy proposed in post #3, for one thing, live lines are typically more juiced up.

    As for the match itself, I do no think it will be a cakewalk for Wawrinka today. Raonic has looked pretty sharp, and Wawrinka is not one of the best returners in the game. Milos might win.

  6. #6
    terpkeg
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    This is a mess. The $410 return counts initial stake so he is looking at winning either $110, $140 or $260 if Stan wins on a $300 wager.

    This makes no sense. if you think he wins 66% or better play him straight.

  7. #7
    7Faces
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    All the lines dropped by 10 cent as we speak, I also thought about a ''hedge play'' taking the over 1.5 Tie Breakers @ 2.05.
    The only way Raonic wins this one is by taking at least 2 TB'ers. I have a better view now how to approach this, thank you, Frugal & Pazim!

  8. #8
    KingHawkins
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    Raonic is a very live dog here in my opinion

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