1. #1
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Off-season reflections

    Didn't bet as many straight up dogs this year but still the trend to take the points is there (US Open for example)
    A pretty good year but think there is more untapped potential next year
    Goals for next season:
    - Avoid exhibition tournaments (Actually made some decent coin at Abu Dhabi but the Hopman Cup was ordinary)
    - Avoid doubles (About 95% of the people I see who bet on doubles have probably never watched them)
    - Avoid womens tennis (Just simply not worth the risk haha)
    - Focus on the Majors and Masters and stem down with less plays during 500/250 events
    - Have a dabble at a few more outrights (Usually I am lucky to do half a dozen a year)
    - Have a few more dabbles at live plays

    My other goal or should I say 'vow' heh
    Make a list of five players you dont want to bet or against on ALL year:
    - BENOIT PAIRE
    - ERNESTS GULBIS
    - FELICIANO LOPEZ
    - FABIO FOGNINI
    - MARCOS BAGHDATIS

    I already avoid what I say I want to avoid but it's just a personal reminder for me to stay focussed on what I want to bet on. And I think the above list will save me a lot of stress too
    What's your lists of goals and players you want to avoid???

  2. #2
    reedy
    reedy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-20-09
    Posts: 289
    Betpoints: 2417

    Nice.

    I think its ok to bet WTA. Just harder to pick your spots. I'm assuming you don't like the exhibition tourneys due to effort?

    I don't have a list of players i don't be on. Just players who I have to take a better look at.

    This year I am going to try to stay away from marginal bets based on value. With the volume of tennis played in a year there's no reason to bet on these games.

  3. #3
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    1.look to back Marchenko next year. Guy is coming on strong.
    2.Bet Dustin brown when he is a dog and fade him when a fav. if you had done this all year blindly you would be ahead.
    3.Also Bhambri,Taro Daniel, and I think Groth will have a massive year.
    4.Outside the top 100 I would say Gerasimov,Fritz

  4. #4
    pattymayo
    pattymayo's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-19-09
    Posts: 10,221
    Betpoints: 159

    personally I love betting WTA-- the volatility feeds the action junkie inside me. The chick you bet on could get bageled and then come back and win the next two sets. Or you could bet an over 20, chick gets blasted 6-1 and then down a break in the second, yet still fight back and cover. Much rarer to see that in ATP.

    Lets face it, we all gamble to ideally make some extra cash, but you want some excitement too. Betting an Isner/Raonic match with tiebreaks galore and hardly even any break points is just boring as shit.

  5. #5
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Quote Originally Posted by reedy View Post
    Nice.

    I think its ok to bet WTA. Just harder to pick your spots. I'm assuming you don't like the exhibition tourneys due to effort?

    I don't have a list of players i don't be on. Just players who I have to take a better look at.
    Yes it's hard to question motivation I think when it's meaningless. Besides there are tournaments going on then where there are points up for grabs so I ask myself why I bother with the exhibitions at the start of the year? Lol
    Pretty sure Tomic beat Djokovic one year at the hopman cup and Kooyong. Little things like that.

    as for WTA I agree, I used to do it more then I do now but I just feel like cutting down, I'd rather focus on one side then the potential value for the other. But I don't want to be a guy who's having a rough patch and then going to the unreliable women's side for a wager. If I back a male player who is solid and lets me down I can live with that.m

    if I had to come up with a list of women's players, maybe five because itd be so easy not to be on it'd be...
    - Samantha Stosur
    - Ana Ivanovic
    - Alize Cornet
    - Sabine Lisicki
    - Andrea Petkovic

    and that took me five seconds to think of haha

  6. #6
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Quote Originally Posted by beefcake View Post
    1.look to back Marchenko next year. Guy is coming on strong.
    2.Bet Dustin brown when he is a dog and fade him when a fav. if you had done this all year blindly you would be ahead.
    3.Also Bhambri,Taro Daniel, and I think Groth will have a massive year.
    4.Outside the top 100 I would say Gerasimov,Fritz
    Taro Daniel has been a sleeping giant for some time but I hope he comes good and breaks into the top 100
    Groth I am a bit worried about as its been quite the breakthrough but a lot has been the back of his serve and watching many of his matches I still feel he is a one dimensional player with not a lot of strings to his bow. He'll do ok but I don't think he will rise a lot higher then what he is.

  7. #7
    brodie
    you got the juice now
    brodie's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-25-13
    Posts: 2,212
    Betpoints: 416

    kyrgios, zverev and hyeon chung.

  8. #8
    Jeff_Black
    Jeff_Black's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 04-04-15
    Posts: 3,571
    Betpoints: 5068

    Quote Originally Posted by brodie View Post
    kyrgios, zverev and hyeon chung.
    Good list
    Kyrgios I think will improve but he will have his shit losses which will put people off betting on him
    Yeah I'd rather avoid all together

  9. #9
    beefcake
    Update your status
    beefcake's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-26-09
    Posts: 14,029
    Betpoints: 178

    Chung for sure..but needs to improve serve!

  10. #10
    frugalgambler
    frugalgambler's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-30-13
    Posts: 3,418
    Betpoints: 6810

    Quote Originally Posted by pattymayo View Post
    personally I love betting WTA-- the volatility feeds the action junkie inside me. The chick you bet on could get bageled and then come back and win the next two sets. Or you could bet an over 20, chick gets blasted 6-1 and then down a break in the second, yet still fight back and cover. Much rarer to see that in ATP.

    Lets face it, we all gamble to ideally make some extra cash, but you want some excitement too. Betting an Isner/Raonic match with tiebreaks galore and hardly even any break points is just boring as shit.
    You summarized perfectly how I feel about WTA vs ATP. Non-Slam ATP is basically unwatchable, especially if no top-10 players are not involved. WTA is not that much fun either, but at least there is some excitement and I still like girls in short skirts. Plus, I think some betting patterns hold pretty well for some WTA players.

  11. #11
    reedy
    reedy's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-20-09
    Posts: 289
    Betpoints: 2417

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff_Black View Post
    Yes it's hard to question motivation I think when it's meaningless. Besides there are tournaments going on then where there are points up for grabs so I ask myself why I bother with the exhibitions at the start of the year? Lol
    Pretty sure Tomic beat Djokovic one year at the hopman cup and Kooyong. Little things like that.

    as for WTA I agree, I used to do it more then I do now but I just feel like cutting down, I'd rather focus on one side then the potential value for the other. But I don't want to be a guy who's having a rough patch and then going to the unreliable women's side for a wager. If I back a male player who is solid and lets me down I can live with that.m

    if I had to come up with a list of women's players, maybe five because itd be so easy not to be on it'd be...
    - Samantha Stosur
    - Ana Ivanovic
    - Alize Cornet
    - Sabine Lisicki
    - Andrea Petkovic

    and that took me five seconds to think of haha
    Interesting. Petkovic became great fade material toward the end of this year. I'll agree that both Cornet and Lisicki are tricky to bet on.

    I'll second what patty and frugal said. Athletic girls in short skirts are always a plus and the shifts in WTA are what make it watchable/heart breaking.

  12. #12
    frugalgambler
    frugalgambler's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 05-30-13
    Posts: 3,418
    Betpoints: 6810

    If you pick the right spot, Cornet is an overs machine. She just cannot close out sets.

  13. #13
    brodie
    you got the juice now
    brodie's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-25-13
    Posts: 2,212
    Betpoints: 416

    Quote Originally Posted by beefcake View Post
    Chung for sure..but needs to improve serve!
    power will come. the guy knows how to hit the ball

  14. #14
    brodie
    you got the juice now
    brodie's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 11-25-13
    Posts: 2,212
    Betpoints: 416

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeff_Black View Post
    Good list
    Kyrgios I think will improve but he will have his shit losses which will put people off betting on him
    Yeah I'd rather avoid all together
    i think he starts the new year fresh and really tries to break through starting with his home grand slam. needs to put the past behind him and go out there and compete. he can hang with really anyone outside of nove. just hope he doesnt turn into a raonic type of player relying on his serve to stay inmatches

  15. #15
    tb1984
    tb1984's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 09-11-08
    Posts: 3,112
    Betpoints: 1083

    Qualifiers with + games. I think this only works outside out Slams(best of 3 sets).

Top