[SirtySree]

Some more games for later.

Groth @2.5 and 2-0 @4
- I am still unconvinced about Dolgo. Serving has been erratic as well as his overall game
- At worse, I think Groth forces tiebreaks but can't see Dolgo running away with the match at any point

Krajicek @2.25 and 2-0 @3.75
- Much like Dolgo, Giraldo is out of form
- Krajicek has been convincing in the past couple of weeks and I can see that run continuing

Estrella @2.62 and 2-0 @4.33
- Will be interesting to see how Lu bounces back. He was horrid in his last two sets andcould barely get a shot in
- Estrella in the form of his life currently so will make it hard for Lu regardless if Lu bounces back or not

Bertens @2.2 and 2-0 @3.5
- Yet another fade play based off form
- Vinci started of last year in terrible fashion and is doing the same again altho not to the same extent
- Bertens can hit the ball quite cleanly when on which could neutralise the use of that classic Vinci backhand slice

Bogdan 2-0 @7
- Bogdan is one of the more inconsistent WTA player on tour
- She can beat some good opponents when on and does really well every odd tournament

[SirtySree]

Disappointing pre-match day. Too many 50/50 matches that failed to deliver.

+$972 (favourites down a set)

- Martincova came back and won next two sets 6-2 6-2 to win comfortably.

+$518 (pre-game)

- Prashanth lost the closest match of the bunch. Had triple break point late in the match but missed them all after breaking Duckworth multiple times. Then got broken next game when up 30-0. Should have been a winner and will likely fade Duckworth again.
- Monteiro was also a close loss but not as bad as Pranshath. Had a break point early in the 3rd set that he missed and then broken next game. Was over after that.
- Fabrice lost in straight sets but it was a close match. Was deserving to go to a 3rd set but was not to be.
- Dolgo looks to be slowly gaining his old self. Returned well and hit many winners. Very low error count compared to his previous matches. Will likely stop fading him for the mean time.
- Bogdan dominating her match currently. Not sure why I only posted 2-0 score without the ML but regardless if she wins, counting it as a loss as I didn't post it properly

Will post some more plays later and still got a few above pending.

[SirtySree]

Also by the way, Taberner is versing Lara again later today and is @2.1. Not as juicy as late time but he won 6-4 6-3 previously so still decent value here.

Moutet is also playing in the same tournament and is @3.5 against Batalla. Not liking this one much as as Batalla is good.

[SirtySree]

Tsuji @3.25 down a set

Also btw, Nagal also has a match today right now against Gerasimov @4.33. Very slim chance of making an upset but match is in India and he's the wildcard so you never know.

[SirtySree]

Wanted to get Parazinskaite @3.75 but can't use bet365. 10bet didn't have it when they usually just copy bet365 and Williamhill only had it at 3.25. Was about to just take the small margin in difference when I guess the line got pounded to 2.3 so I passed. Now at 1.62 after 1 game in the 2nd set.

EDIT:
Also Moutet is down to $2.62 by game time. Thought I was one of the few to actually think this guy is a talent.

EDIT2:
Moutet breaks in the very first game and odds are now at evens. Early days but good start.

EDIT3:
Glad I passed or got lucky with Parazinskaite. Lost 4 games in a row after the break. Also Williamhill I swear is the weirdest book that I've used. Always has bizarre lines like right now, she is @10 to win set 2 but only $7 to win the match.

[SirtySree]

Obry @2.35 down a set

[SirtySree]

Naydenova @3.5 down a set

[SirtySree]

How many bad beats or close losses can I get?

Two of my live bets Orby and Tsuji just completely bombed winning situations.
- Orby bagels his opponent in the 2nd set and gets off to a 2-0 lead. Then decided to get broken when up 40-0 and from there, was up 30-0 on every one of his opponents surface games but failed to break. Then gets broken again when up 40-15 and when his opponent was serving for the match, was up 40-15 and loses 4 points in a row and the match.
- Tsuji has a match point against serve and blew that. Was up 3-2 in the tiebreak and lost 5 points in a row. Was not as absurd as Orby but could've been a good winner.

Not even going to go through the pre-match stuff, more bad beats or close losses there and only 1 win.

In other news, Moutet won in 3 and Nagal lost 7-5 7-5 which is better than I thought he would do.

[SirtySree]

Ferrer-Suarez @3 down a set

[SirtySree]

Montanes @3.75 dow a set. Prob gonna regret this real quick. Doesn't meet several criterias but giving it a stab anyways

[SirtySree]

Tomljanovic @2.75 down a set

[SirtySree]

Maia @3 down a set

[SirtySree]

I will be taking a few days off. Can't handle all these fked up losses and it might cause me to go on a bad run. Still up over $1000 combined but not going to risk losing that.

[SirtySree]

+$622 (favourites down a set)
+$368 (pre-game)

Won't be having anymore plays for the next day or so. Will just say keep an eye on Bogdan as mentioned in an earlier post. She won in straights against Davis today.

Good luck everyone. I'm in need of a short break.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

If you bet the favorites down a set that I faded after they lost a set where I still got the original odds, you'd be at 100%

[SirtySree]

Even though I am taking a break, I will still be following tennis but just not betting for the next day, maybe two.

If someone wants some good plays, watch out for the ITF womens matches in India. There are players playing two tournaments at once with Linette and Majeric making the final of the first one but needing to play a 2nd round match in the other. Majeric already got upset against a player she smashed last week and same thing happening to Linette right now as well.

Elena Bogdan is @3.5 tomorrow which is also worth a punt regardless of the slow hard court.

[SirtySree]

Updating as still had Couacoud who won. I don't usually use the tired angle as I am probably the biggest hater of that strategy but Basic happened to meet almost every criteria I outlined in another thread about fading a supposedly tired player. Was close to fading Dustov too but thought he could beat Setkic half asleep and that the 2nd round would be a better fade.

+$622 (favourites down a set)
+$553 (pre-game)

Moutet with yet another upset win. This kid will be a beast in a few years time. I only noticed him cause he and Mikael Ymer have both been destroying under 16 tournaments last year. Moutet verses Chazal next which could be another upset.

[SirtySree]

Not playing any of these and still taking a break for the rest of the day. Thought these matches were interesting though so decided to post them.

All of them to take a set/1st set should also be good value but didn't bother looking at the lines for them. Only posted the ML lines but +1.5 set, 1st set, spread, and etc I would also like.

Lokoli @3.75
- Very slow court for an indoor hard court
- Paire doesn't usually like these surfaces and struggled in his last match

Olivo @3.75
- Can't pass up the opportunity to fade Robredo who is out of form
- Think the surface will also suit Olivo as it's on the slower side

Richard Becker @2.75
- Bemelmans seems to be slowing down after a heavy schedule to start the year
- Becker will be hard to break regardless so should be a close game

Sonego @4
- Fixed a match earlier but is a beast when playing properly
- Good server and very hard to break especially on carpet
- Coming off a huge 1st round upset

[SirtySree]

Decided to get back into it today with my 1st pick and guess fking what, Barton up 5-3 in the 3rd set and loses 7-5. He held to 15 in every game in the 3rd set and had 3 more games that he could have broken in. Was up 40-0, didn't break, up 30-0, didn't break, and up 30-15, didn't break.

Fk this. Taking a longer break otherwise I am going to blow all my money on dumb stuff.

[Hardcoar]

Almagro legs gone

[SirtySree]

Almagro legs gone

Almagros dignity gone. Lost them to Ferrer years ago.

[SirtySree]

Back on topic, not sure if I will keep posting plays in this thread but I want to just continue my thoughts on matches as well as the rookie watch. I will see after Davis Cup action this week if I feel like like continuing the pre-match as well as favourites down a set records.

As for Davis Cup, Ymer is playing for Sweden as usual and will likely verse Melzer and Maurer but I am not sure why they chose to play on hard court over Bastad clay which I think would give them a better advantage. Either way, fading Jurgen Melzer would be a top play.

[SirtySree]

Going to be bringing this back but with some changes. No more tally for pre-game as I don't play them and seems a bit pointless. I will still be posting opinion on matches though like before and I will continue my favourites down a set tally as well as trying to find value players which was the original purpose of the thread.

Will post thoughts on some Davis Cup matches later. Found some interesting ones already.

[SirtySree]

Add this name to rookies with value.

Dayana Yastremska
- 14 yr old from Ukraine
- only a handful of games but some big wins against some decent ITF level players at big odds

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Note all the below are just ML prices. Stuff like 1st set, +1.5 sets, spread, and etc are also playable in some spots.

Ymer @3.25 against Melzer
- I actually like Lindell more to beat Melzer as he matches up a bit better
- Wished it was on clay but still, the way Melzer is playing he is an instant fade against any half decent player

Coric @3 against Troicki
- Not a huge fan of Coric but his style of play will give Troicki headaches
- If Coric does what he does and just keeps the ball on the court, Troicki will lose the match himself if he's not careful

Lindell @9 against Maurer
- Would take the spread, not ML.
- Lindell is a good enough server to hang with Maurer

Authom @2.75 against Paire
- I like Authom to maybe steal the 1st set at the very least
- Think Authom can give Paire quite a lot of trouble and match will end up being a coinflip

[SirtySree]

Kontinen @2.48 against Balleret
- Kontinen goes into the match in great form
- Balleret's record at Monte Carlo is terrible and he prefers slightly faster courts

Venus @2.88 against Ze Zhang
- Venus loves playing at home and form coming in is pretty decent
- Venus is the type of player that can beat top 100 players on his day but is very inconsistent. With home support, he has played well in the past/this year

Statham @2.02 against Di W u
- Pushed to 5 sets last time they played but it was in China
- In NZ, have to back Statham who is also playing good tennis this year

New Zealand @2.29 vs China
- I think all the single matches are going to be tight and they could split it
- New Zealand has the better doubles pairing which I think will be the difference maker here

[Snowball]

SS.. about the Davis Cup.. if your team is not in the World Group of 16, but
wins in its zone, is that it ? you can never challenge for the trophy if you're
not in the world group ?

[SirtySree]

SS.. about the Davis Cup.. if your team is not in the World Group of 16, but
wins in its zone, is that it ? you can never challenge for the trophy if you're
not in the world group ?

To be honest, I am not 100% sure how Davis Cup works. I'm pretty sure how it works is that if you win your zone, that is it for the year but then you get promoted the following year.

[Joenaes]

Nice analysis man, i love reading your posts. Keep it up!

[Snowball]

To be honest, I am not 100% sure how Davis Cup works. I'm pretty sure how it works is that if you win your zone, that is it for the year but then you get promoted the following year.

ok, that's it then. no further until the next year.
motivation is everything in these Davis Cup matches.
really i think they should fold it up. lots of players feel pressured to even be there.

[fitguy67]

Going to be bringing this back but with some changes. No more tally for pre-game as I don't play them and seems a bit pointless. I will still be posting opinion on matches though like before and I will continue my favourites down a set tallyas well astrying to find value players which was the original purpose of the thread.

Will post thoughts on some Davis Cup matches later. Found some interesting ones already.

[SirtySree]

ok, that's it then. no further until the next year.
motivation is everything in these Davis Cup matches.
really i think they should fold it up. lots of players feel pressured to even be there.

I personally like the Davis Cup and from what I saw last year, majority of players were really pumped up and passionate during their matches. There's always a few, like Sijsling that just doesn't seem interested whether it's an ATP match or Davis Cup match but then there's like Copil and Ungur for Romania that are so pumped in their Davis Cup matches but can be quite flat in their usual Challenger matches.

It's also just something different from the usual tour matches which I think adds a bit to the usual tennis. plus it's just 1 week every couple of months so not too disruptive to the usual schedule.

[SirtySree]

You can call me a dick or whatever for this some what bragging or show off post but meh, dont really care. Just wanted to show the profitability of what I have been doing since I made this thread. I hate to keep preaching this favourites down a set method but I want ppl to make money, hence why I even bother with these threads.

I had a shit week with bad losses as you can see from some of the above posts, plus my posts in other thread but yet I am still up quite a bit purely because of the high odds this strategy produces.

I started off with $300 on 10bet, and another $300 on WilliamHill. The $300 at WH was gone within days and I didn't re-deposit cause I like the odds on 10bet more and they offer all the matches.

These are the 3 withdraws I have made since on 10bet (after bank fees and etc):
$430.66
$586.28
$695 (pending)

Currently have $1000 in my account on 10bet so after calculating everything, I am up $2100 since this thread (roughly a month) and that is considering a some what crap run if you can believe it. My units are $100 per play 90% of the time by the way.

In comparison, as some of you may have seen from my other thread, I made $3500 in 20 days during January before getting banned from BetVictor but I would consider that a good run out of the normal.

Hopefully this post will convince a few more to try the strategy.

($100 a day profit is what I am aiming for. I will try to keep this thread going as well as post majority of my picks here and see how it goes for the rest of the year.)

[fitguy67]

looking forward to it...especially like when you share some useful stats u have on *player's win% as a pre-match fave after losing 1st set

i'm defintely up to tail as closely as possible on these

[SirtySree]

looking forward to it...especially like when you share some useful stats u have on *player's win% as a pre-match fave after losing 1st set

i'm defintely up to tail as closely as possible on these

thanks. if you want info on a players win% as favourite or dog, have a look at tennisprediction.com

you can compare any two players or they already list out the days matches out for u and u just need to click the small "i" beside each match and then set the settings however u like

it is the most useful site i kno along with tennislive.net but i dnt think ive ever heard anyone on here mention it before

[SirtySree]

Yuxuan Zhang @2.5 down a set. This year and last on hard court she has won 22/30 matches as the favourite going in.