[Snowball]

Tally +5.25

I woke up this morning knowing Serena would win, and not very confident
at all in the +4 gms, based on the match it was lucky that Serena gagged a little
and Garbine got that last break back, making the +4 push instead of lose.
The live bet was when Garbine was up a break with only 2 serves to close so
I went with the odds, then Serena dug out her A game.
Still fairly confident RF will win tomorrow. But with Joker odds only at -127 here
I have to lock in some profit on a winning week. Anyone who is betting with
real confidence tomorrow is fooling themselves. There is no way to tell.

Federer Wimbledon 1/5.1
Djokovic 2.5/2

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Agreed. I have a Novak future @ +125 that isn't even worth hedging at this point so I'll be pulling the other way by default but GL. Might mess around with a total or 2.

[sluggy1616]

Tally +6.02

Muguruza +4 (168) .7/1.18
Federer Wimbledon 1/5.1

I am reasonably confident Roger gets his 8th Wimbledon.
About as confident as anyone could be in a bet against Novak Djokovic..
who appears to be in solid, albeit not perfect form.. while Roger indeed
is in perfect form.. and is going to have 95% of the crowd backing him, and he has to know
this is as good a chance as he'll have for another major, coinciding with a record at Wimbledon
that could last 100 years or more.. this is going to be an epic match. RF is peaking at the right time.

The plan is wait and see if Garbine +4 wins. If she wins I am thinking
about just letting Fed ride unhedged. If she loses then I will reel in and protect.

And if feddy loses he knows his wife will be an eternal bitch about the loss until the end of his life.

[Snowball]

Doing the math, I have just a tad over standard bet on Federer.

Tally will be +7.85 if Fed / +6.25 if Joker.

Believe me I am tempted to go deeper on Fed but now that
I'm up nicely again, it's really about the next tournaments.
Joker is the only possible opponent I would be hedging like this.

[JohnnyRudeboy]

Doing the math, I have just a tad over standard bet on Federer.

Tally will be +7.85 if Fed / +6.25 if Joker.

Believe me I am tempted to go deeper on Fed but now that
I'm up nicely again, it's really about the next tournaments.
Joker is the only possible opponent I would be hedging like this.

Also agreed.

[Snowball]

Tally +6.25

Isner (Newport), Voegele (Bucharest) .75/.69

[Snowball]

Voegele, Donaldson 1.75/2.54

[Snowball]

Donaldson 4.6/2

[Conqueror]

Almost tailed you in Donaldson but scared of laying such juice in such miniature tournaments.

[Snowball]

Jared can't touch Krajicek's serve. Things don't look good after dropping that tiebreaker.
There were good reasons for backing Donaldson. He's stable on grass and Krajicek's
record is not.. Jared's in his home state and has the audience cheering him, but if he
can't touch Austin's serve, then it becomes an unlikely proposition.

If he loses, I'm planning on taking some time off posting.
Going to start building some massive open parlays, cross-sport..
that's where I've done the best in recent years.. 10-25 legs...
but most of the plays are good size favorites (with dogs thrown in discriminately,
based on how many parlays I have running live, and how many can be sacrificed)
.. so it makes for boring posts.

[Snowball]

Jared found a way to cut in and dominated the 2,3 sets.

Tally +5.25

Mitu 1.5/1.43
Mitu, Krunic .9/2.27
Mitu, Krunic, Haas, Putintseva .3/3.45
Mitu, Krunic, Haas, Putintseva, Sugita, Stepanek, Peer, Cirstea, Larsson, Arvidsson .1/231.4

[Conqueror]

Will be tailing all of that. Congrats on Donaldson!

[Snowball]

This is ridiculous. It's 8pm in Bucharest - for two hours the Mitu/Beck match was
suspended for rain at 0-1 (40-40) then after all the wait they restarted it and
Mitu lost the break. 0-2. Now it's put off again after playing like 5 points.
They should have just called it off..... I can't stand when this crap screws up players.

[Conqueror]

This is ridiculous. It's 8pm in Bucharest - for two hours the Mitu/Beck match was
suspended for rain at 0-1 (40-40) then after all the wait they restarted it and
Mitu lost the break. 0-2. Now it's put off again after playing like 5 points.
They should have just called it off..... I can't stand when this crap screws up players.

I'm wondering if Mitu actually prepared for this game.

[Snowball]

Tally +8.85

Mitu, Krunic, Haas, Putintseva .3/3.45
Mannarino (hedge) 1.35/1

[Snowball]

Mannarino odds are rising. Just going to add a little more hedge
on the higher number.

Mannarino (hedge more) .29/.2

[Conqueror]

You really pick your spots. Mitu came back in good fashion.

[Snowball]

You really pick your spots. Mitu came back in good fashion.

not a good idea to fade gypsies in Romania.

[Snowball]

Cirstea .56/.5
Cirstea, Vinci, Dulgheru, Johnson, Donaldson .35/3.01

[marktb68]

Snowball, whats your strongest tennis play

[marktb68]

curious as to why you pick cirstea when she lost to her opponent back in 2012 6-0 6-0

[larry040681]

Cirstea .56/.5
Cirstea, Vinci, Dulgheru, Johnson, Donaldson .35/3.01

is it just the value for picking her?

[Snowball]

i really thought Vinci would win but doubted her, as she is getting older..
well she won, and then i put Donaldson in, knowing full well that JP Smith
could beat him, that was greed on my part.
Cirstea looks good. She's found her game again and is in her home area.
She was going through a slump when she lost to Karat before, I know how
they play. Karat is not a special player. I watch them play and visualize the match
then take into consideration recent performances and perferences, advantages, etc
and play the match ahead in my mind. Then i feel out the destiny of the day and
try to pick winners. It's pretty hard to explain.

[marktb68]

you should have responded earlier. I stupidly went against you since you didn't respond

[larry040681]

i really thought Vinci would win but doubted her, as she is getting older..
well she won, and then i put Donaldson in, knowing full well that JP Smith
could beat him, that was greed on my part.
Cirstea looks good. She's found her game again and is in her home area.
She was going through a slump when she lost to Karat before, I know how
they play. Karat is not a special player. I watch them play and visualize the match
then take into consideration recent performances and perferences, advantages, etc
and play the match ahead in my mind. Then i feel out the destiny of the day and
try to pick winners. It's pretty hard to explain.

you really know your stuff.. nice pick..

[Snowball]

Tally +9.90

Falla, Putintseva .75/.93
Brown, Putintseva .65/2.25
Falla, Brown, Putintseva .55/3.39

[Snowball]

Falla/Hernych 3 sets 3 tiebreakers... lost it.

[Snowball]

Tally +8.60

Brown, Putintseva .65/2.25
Smith .73/.65
Pereira .45/.75

[Snowball]

Tally +11.05

[Snowball]

Sock, Karlovic .55/.67
Sock, Schmiedlova, Krunic, Putintseva, Larsson, Peterson, Cepelova .05/6.38

[Landrew]

Sock, Karlovic .55/.67
Sock, Schmiedlova, Krunic, Putintseva, Larsson, Peterson, Cepelova .05/6.38

Karlovic is a hedge for previous picks that include brown?

[larry040681]

any thoughts on troicki vs delbonis?

[DR225]

Karlovic is a hedge for previous picks that include brown?

no, the Brown pick won already. It was the Querrey match.

[Snowball]

Tally +11.32

Karlovic (-173) paid, Sock advanced on Hernych fast retire.

I typically don't bet Davis Cup unless its the finals.

[Snowball]

Barthel .6/.6
Putintseva .51/.6