[frugalgambler]

I feel like posting a few small leans.

Makarova +1.5 sets @+105: two pretty similar players, both like grass. A-Rad is yet to face a player of this caliber and I feel like Makarova has a shot here. Makarova is 1-3 h2h but she won the last meeting pretty convincingly. Plus I have a small A-Rad futures bet so this is a semi-hedge.

Kerber/Maria: 3 sets. Ditto for Masha: this is the first serious player she has to deal with; about time she drops a set.

Cornet/Bouchard: 3 sets. Frenchiness of both players and stubborness of Cornet.

Cilic 3-1; Dimitrov 3-1. Feels like these outcomes are more likely than the 3-0 sweeps that the books expect.


GL. Any feedback is appreciated. As a disclaimer, I fully expect to go 0-5 on these leans. To be fair, these are + lines but I have not had much luck on match-by-match betting this Wimby.

[matt1216]

The Chardy +1.5 sets @1.77 move to +2.5 sets @1.42.... I think there trying to get big money on Chardy winning a set

[matt1216]

I like the other though... Which dosnt mean a lot because I've shit the bed this tourney so far

[frugalgambler]

We'll see. I am kinda throwing darts here but even the blind can hit the target once in a while.

Forgot to add one more: BZS +1.5 sets @+105. BZS seems to be one mean b.tch and I think she will really make the nice girl Caroline work for it, not to mention that BZS is playing her best tennis right now and she loves grass.

[fitguy67]

hey FG,

any chance you continue to post your leans in this thread...if so, i'll bookmark it...

some people want proof that people have already bet a down-payment on a Covette before they they get interested in a play...

for me...it's sufficient to know that someone with a good mind for this sort of thing sees value on some ticket...gets me to look at something i otherwise would have overlooked...or to look at the same old thing in a different way...

wish i'd seen this several hours earlier...would have kicked a few cogs into gear

[frugalgambler]

@fitguy, I do not think I will be posting regularly, but who knows. There are much better cappers around: I am not that good match-by-match although I have had some success with futures. And I do not like smaller tourneys that much.

Anyway, 2-3 on the posted leans. The one that really got away was Cornet's 3-sets. She had a chance to win both sets: missed an easy shot in the crucial rally @5-4 in the tie-break and then collapsed while being 5-3 in the 2nd set. But you gotta give props to Bouchard: she is really playing well the important points and is pretty resilient, not to mention that her game is good too. Let's see how Masha-Kerbs works out, but I think Masha will be extra motivated to finish in 2 sets to save her energy due to the delay so I am not so optimistic about that +185 line. Shoulda also put a little on the BZS and Makarova MLs: both Woz and A-Rad were favs based only on the name recognition not on their recent performances.

An interesting bottom of the women's draw, the -OVA half. Kvitova has the most experience and she looked pretty darn good against Venus. I think she will make it to the finals, or at least she has a >50% chance to get there. BZS has been on fire and Safarova/Makarova are balling too but Kvitova has both the game and experience. However, she still has lots of ups and downs in her game and she might drop a set tomorrow against BZS (or it might go over since both of them are serving pretty well). If Kvitova makes it to the final, she will be a ~+150 dog to Masha or ~-180 fav against anybody else. And I am not so sure Masha makes it to the second GS final in a row, Kerber/Genie/Halep (or Lisicki) are no pushovers. The bottom line is I like the +300 futures line for Kvitova to win it all, with a possibility to hedge in the final.

A couple of leans for tomorrow:

BZS over 21: see above. Not so sure about BZS +1.5 sets but it looks interesting too or even BZS +4 games, both at +115.

Lisicki -4: gotta love the spanky German in this spot.

Safarova/Makarova: hmm. A small lean on the over too but I have not seen Safarova play at all @Wimby. Word is she is on fire, but Makarova looked pretty solid against A-Rad today. And Safarova does not seem to close sets/matches that well (just like Cornet).

Halep -5.5. Another fade a Kazakh lean, although Shvedova is actually a Russian playing for Kazakhstan.

GL fellas. Any feedback would be appreciated as usual.

[matt1216]

I watched Shedova, she was horse shit.. For real

[fitguy67]

@frugal, i used to pop into gregm's thread regularly to read you2guyz baknforth over the matches...too bad he's chilled again...now best place for lookin' over sharp tenny minds at work is probably HoneyBadger's & EP36' threads where the reasoning/picking ratio is higher than average...professionalAD's new "gem" thread is pretty good that way as well...a pick then a freestyle dissection of it...same as cashaholic's single-pick thread's that way...often gets better when things get more contentious...as long as they stay civil (something that tennis forum does a MUCH better job than most other sbr sf's)

my longsuit/focus is on sports-betting as an exercise in applied probability/statistics (in general)...and the implications for sensible bet-sizing (in particular)...and on the logistics of shopping for the best price (once you know what you want)...and NOT specific knowledge of the sport being bet on...

so i really appreciate when you, HC, HB, EP, Beefcake, Kenz, Matt, Gregm, JC(with the stfu avatar), baconbets, sirty, zec and many of the other tenny-enthusiasts here bat ideas around intelligently

[fitguy67]

Safarova does not seem to close sets/matches that well (just like Cornet).

interesting and accurate observation that applies to many...play well, but don't finish well...serving for the match 5-4...hmmm...you'd rather they were receiving, because then they'd "stay scrappy" and nerves wouldn't kick in cuz your "not supposed to" break which makes it a fun challenge...but when ur serving for the set, "you're supposed to win"...no longer a fun challenge but a stressful obligation

The Inner Game of Tennis...what really separates the top 4 from the rest

[frugalgambler]

Well, whaddya know, another 2-3 day but the Kerber/Masha 3-setter hit and that was a +185 line so this is more or less an even day. And Kvitova's +300 futures are doing pretty good at this point. BZS took 10 games to get into this match and could not push it to the over side, however Kvitova did have a lull in the 2nd set. i think Safarova will have a better chance in the SF, at least to stretch it to the over side.

After looking at the buzz around this forum, like Cilic +2.5 sets and Raonic ML. As for WTA, two matches tomorrow.

Halep-Lisicki: I think this is where Lisicki's Wimby fairy tale ends. Halep 2-0 @+105. Halep has been rock solid and she might win it all here.

Kerber-Bouchard: I think this is the shortest price on 3-setter I have ever seen, only +125. Wow. Hmm, this one is tough. Genie has reached two previous GS SFs. Kerber must feel this is her chance of a lifetime to win a GS, given how open the draw is. A small lean on the over side. Edit: hmm, not so sure about the over. A small lean on Bouchard's ML. Actually, a no-play for me.

[frugalgambler]

1-0 on WTA and 2-0 on ATP. A pretty good day all in all; shoulda stuck to my original feeling and take Bouchard ML as well. I think pretty soon Halep will be numero uno and Bouchard will be challenging her next year.

Gotta think what to do with my Kvitova futures, feeling a bit cagey in this spot but don't feel like fully hedging before the final.

[frugalgambler]

I am gonna keep rambling on since I think it helps me organize my thoughts. The two SFs tomorrow will be great, too bad about the time difference though. Not sure I am gonna see more than the ending of the 2nd one. A fun fact: over the past 10 years no RG semifinalist won Wimby the same year. So that kinda eliminates Halep/Bouchard from the contest, or does it ?

Kvitova-Safarova: well, well, well I have a non-negligible stake in Kvitova futures @+300. I think she will be almost evens with Halep and maybe a slight fav over Bouchard (I was obviously wrong about my wild guess that she'd be a -180 fav against anybody in the final), that is if Petra wins and that is not a given at all. Safarova-Kvitova went to three a couple of weeks ago, but Kvitova is 5-0 against Lucie and she has been serving well enough to be almost unbreakable. However, she did have a major hiccup against BZS in the 2nd set and Safarova has a lot more panache than BZS. Still, this is the first GS SF for Lucie. So all in all, I like Safarova +1.5 sets @-130 & over 22. Only a part of that bet is a hedge of my Petra's futures bet. I do think Lucie will be able to get into the match much earlier than BZS did and eventually get that over, mainly since Petra tends to have bad stretches in her matches. But Petra will hopefully come through, eventually.

Halep-Bouchard feels like a preview of a few future GS finals. Halep's game is a bit more rock-solid, but Bouchard is a feisty chick and plays important points quite well. I think Genie might have a slight mental edge but I am probably wrong here. Anyway, this feels like the over as well; over 22 it is.

[frugalgambler]

Both WTA plays and ATP play on dogs +2.5 in a parlay bombed. But I got Kvitova in the final so I will still get a small profit on Wimby.

I see fairly compelling arguments for both players, but I think the odds are fair: Petra has an edge in experience, serving and overall power over Genie. So I am hedging to get 7.5u if Petra wins and 6.5u if Genie wins, with a small side play on Petra 2-0@+185. Lots of WTA GS finals involving a newcomer go under. Genie lost to Li Na pretty easily in her 1st final so it might happen again in her first final. And a little play on TB in the 1st set: nerves should be a factor in the 1st set but perhaps Genie and Petra will serve well enough early on to force a TB.

[frugalgambler]

Hmm, I overhedged on Bouchard. That is really my problem, but still got 9u on Kvitova. I think I am gonna trust my gut feeling and I will probably go with Feds ML, Feds +1.5 set & -1.5 sets. But those bets are all under a unit. I do like Feds based on what I saw from both players so far and also because Djoker should be running on fumes tomorrow, but you never know with Djoker, he is one tough cookie.

All in all, not a bad Wimby but it could have been better if I trusted my gut feeling a bit more on the women's final. I think I will close this thread with this post. I do not think I will be capping lesser tourneys, since I usually do not really have time nor desire to watch them. Maybe around the US open time I will start another one. I love GSs because there is a lot of info available and motivation is not a question. With smaller tourneys, you gotta look for different angles and info is difficult to obtain.