[fitguy67]

here's one to think about, from a perspective of why's this guy @2.50/+150...ranking's similar but owns the h2h

http://www.tennisexplorer.com/match-detail/?id=1205103

ballpark same ranking (353 vs. 321)

but Kondo's 3-0 in games/6-1 sets over Huang in their three 2013 matches (hard=same as tonight's match)...

what do the books (&./or you guyz) know that's not apparent at all by looking at Tennis-Explorer level stuff...

seems like there's gotta be an injury or a personal matter or something to pin a price-tag on the obviously faster horse like it's "hobbled"...

OR...

do the books just want us to THINK they know something, to make the Kondo tickets--the ones they fear they'll have to pay out on "smell bad".
In all walks of life, "too much of a bargain" always breeds suspicion and is bad for sales...Make Kondo appear weak...at the same time that they charge a premium for tickets on this Huang that the books really expect to lose...by over-pricing Huang (that Kondo's absolutely owned on recent, same surface action) thus making him look much stronger than he really is, in this matchup

the "current pricing vs on-paper breakdown" of this matchup seems to suggest something active, opinionated and strategic...rather than the textbook explanation of the books merely adjusting price passively in an attempt to balance their liability on both sides

i honestly can't figure this sort of thing out...i see it all the time at challenger level...
and this is just a good "hot off the press" (and playable--match at 2200) example of it

[brodie]

already responded to you in the other thread but.... huang is the young hometown guy, kondo is an old jap... huang is better than he was last year when he played him etc etc, i think the line shows a huang victory here honestly

also huang just won a tourney beating guys better than kondo

could be a close match and for that alone i guess there is slight value on kondo... i just dont see a real reason to go against the home guy here

[fitguy67]

thanks, for that, broadie...gave me a few ideas on some additional "digging procedures" when the price seems directly counter to the surface view of things

...also i need to develop a feel for "tennis time"...in JUST 18 months or so, players can really improve / decline (in both external skill/internal composure)

especially the potential for the young'uns to improve and
old'uns to decline

[Cappinpicks]

the books seem to want us to think all these gift matches are fixed only reason I can see why they would constantly give away their cash to joe public

[SirtySree]

Coming off a final so line based of that. Also it's once again the public moving the line, not the books setting it that way.

[SirtySree]

already responded to you in the other thread but.... huang is the young hometown guy, kondo is an old jap... huang is better than he was last year when he played him etc etc, i think the line shows a huang victory here honestly

also huang just won a tourney beating guys better than kondo

could be a close match and for that alone i guess there is slight value on kondo... i just dont see a real reason to go against the home guy here

i hav no idea if huang is born in china or not but it says he is from taiwan. most taiwan ppl hate china so hes not the hometown guy unless im wrong about the first part.

[PharaohUB]

Grabbed kondo at 4.5 live and he immediately broke and I hedged out. Win win either way for me now. Thanks for making me look at the match.

[Cappinpicks]

Kondo was a dog and better rank? lmfao my theory could make beggers rich with the win rate it has

[SirtySree]

Kondo was a dog and better rank? lmfao my theory could make beggers rich with the win rate it has

Kondo doesnt have a better rank but the ranking is close and when you are that high in the rankings, small differences like that doesn;t really matter. (ie. 400 vs 500 player is nothing compared to say the difference of 50 vs 100)

[EaglesPhan36]

And that's how he got that brain aneurysm.

[Cappinpicks]

next up is Zhyrmont for the better ranked dog

[Cappinpicks]

Kondo doesnt have a better rank but the ranking is close and when you are that high in the rankings, small differences like that doesn;t really matter. (ie. 400 vs 500 player is nothing compared to say the difference of 50 vs 100)

true about the same rank but never heard of other guy might as well pound known dog

[brodie]

good call fitguy..... things like this make me hate betting tennis though... the line for this match had NO reflection of the outcome. I almost think i'm better off not looking at the line and deciding who's gonna win based on recent results, rank, etc

[Hardcoar]

bring out your kondoms!!!

[SirtySree]

good call fitguy..... things like this make me hate betting tennis though... the line for this match had NO reflection of the outcome. I almost think i'm better off not looking at the line and deciding who's gonna win based on recent results, rank, etc

If it was that easy, we would all be millionaires and bookies wouldn't exist.