[bucketteam3]

Let's go!!

[kenz]

Johnson must have a serious problem if not a trap. Price rise continues

[SirtySree]

Could be wrong, but I think his trend involves two different things. Firstly, following the public/line and secondly, comparing two matches with the same ML price but different -1.5 sets price or 1st set price. Both methods pretty much depends on the public and bookies adjusting the lines accordingly rather than actual insight into matchups/players. Not a bad method to go by as usually bookies know what they're doing and only people who are betting large amounts affect the lines and they tend to people who do it for a living so know what they're doing.

[matt1216]

Could be wrong, but I think his trend involves two different things. Firstly, following the public/line and secondly, comparing two matches with the same ML price but different -1.5 sets price or 1st set price. Both methods pretty much depends on the public and bookies adjusting the lines accordingly rather than actual insight into matchups/players. Not a bad method to go by as usually bookies know what they're doing and only people who are betting large amounts affect the lines and they tend to people who do it for a living so know what they're doing.

It's about time! Your close...... It's the original ML released combined with the publics perception, it's obviously not always right, and it sucks because I have to be bang on with the day. Sock is rested, he's done school now... You guys know the sock who was mentally un-prepared most of his early career. He's ready now and he's getting better. Yes he's still developing on clay but he's rested and motivated. Steve will be stale IMO. If sock can just take an early set, I don't think Johnson's body will keep up.

[matt1216]

With Venus/Serena out of tourney, there's belief coming from Stephens early!

[matt1216]

56. Mladenovic ML + G. Lopez ML 1.91 x 3 units

57. Monfilis ML + Karlovic ML 2.00 x 2 units

56. Mladenovic ML 1.80 ^^^ adding 2 units. **Trend play

[matt1216]

58. Gabashvilli ML + Monaco ML 4.20 x 2 units

[cupidxxx]

help guys .i try to bet on nfl nba and mlb. but never undesrtood the lines in tennis. if maria teressa flor is favoured by -11/2 and the outcome is 6-2 2-6 6-2 did i cash or lost simlarly if a player is favoured to win by -11/2 then win 6-1 6-3 can u please explain thanks guys

[pattymayo]

What's the difference between a "trend play" and a "big trend play"?

Are there levels of trend play?

[pattymayo]

I ask because your Sock play qualifies as a "big trend play" but the mladenovic is just a "trend play"

[zec]

help guys .i try to bet on nfl nba and mlb. but never undesrtood the lines in tennis. if maria teressa flor is favoured by -11/2 and the outcome is 6-2 2-6 6-2 did i cash or lost simlarly if a player is favoured to win by -11/2 then win 6-1 6-3 can u please explain thanks guys

First scenario you lost, Second you won. That's a spread of sets, so she would have to win 2-0 in sets (has nothing to do with the games) for you to win

[Hardcoar]

What's the difference between a "trend play" and a "big trend play"?

Are there levels of trend play?

The stake is greater, likely due to Matt thinking it's a better bet.

[matt1216]

I ask because your Sock play qualifies as a "big trend play" but the mladenovic is just a "trend play"

Not really a big difference, just the fact that I have more faith in the WTA

[matt1216]

Not really a big difference, just the fact that I have more faith in the WTA

ATP, my bad

[frugalgambler]

The only big trend I am seeing this year is that Matt will be starting a new thread soon, probably shooting for 80% next time.

[matt1216]

59. Cirstea ML + Sock ML 2.25 x 4 units

[matt1216]

The only big trend I am seeing this year is that Matt will be starting a new thread soon, probably shooting for 80% next time.

Frugal, this is how close my trend took me to winning over a 100:1 parlay. The tigers let up a 3 run home run in the bottom of the 9th up 1-0. It's no joke once I make a few adjustments

[matt1216]

May 28, 2014 02:30:19 PM
8 Team Parlay #349559349


Baseball - MLB (Game) Moneyline


NATIONAL LEAGUE


(907) Miami Marlins 2.35* May 28/14@06:05p




Final Scores


Miami Marlins 8


Washington Nationals 5






Baseball - MLB (Game) Moneyline


AMERICAN LEAGUE


(916) Toronto Blue Jays 1.97* May 28/14@06:05p




Final Scores


Tampa Bay Rays 2


Toronto Blue Jays 3






Baseball - MLB (Game) Moneyline


NATIONAL LEAGUE


(904) San Francisco Giants 1.65* May 28/14@02:45p




Final Scores


Chicago Cubs 0


San Francisco Giants 5






Tennis - All tournaments for men (Game) Moneyline


If either player retires before the match is completed then the event will be settled as no action.


ATP Men's Singles - Roland Garros, Paris, France


Ivo Karlovic 1.43 May 29/14@04:00a




Final Scores


Ivo Karlovic 3


Andreas Haider-Maurer 0






Tennis - All tournaments for men (Game) Moneyline


If either player retires before the match is completed then the event will be settled as no action.


ATP Men's Singles - Roland Garros, Paris, France


Jack Sock 1.80 May 29/14@07:30a


Tennis - All tournaments for men (Game) Moneyline


If either player retires before the match is completed then the event will be settled as no action.


ATP Men's Singles - Roland Garros, Paris, France


Gael Monfils 1.29 May 29/14@07:30a


Baseball - MLB (Game) Moneyline


AMERICAN LEAGUE


(921) Detroit Tigers 2.10* May 28/14@09:05p




Final Scores


Detroit Tigers 1


Oakland Athletics 3






Tennis - All tournaments for women (Game) Moneyline


If either player retires before the match is completed then the event will be settled as no action.


WTA Women's Singles - Roland Garros, Paris, France


Sloane Stephens 1.95 May 29/14@04:00a




Final Scores


Sloane Stephens 2


Polona Hercog 0






Outcome: Loss


Date settled: May 28, 2014 11:34:16 PM


* Odds and win amount may not be the same as at time of placement, if a pitcher change takes place.


Web CA$ 21.00 CA$ 2162.97




Talk talk about getting fckked^^^

[matt1216]

56. Mladenovic ML 1.80 ^^^ adding 2 units. **Trend play

There we go, get it done^^

[zec]

But wasn't the line moving in the opposite direction from Mladenovic? I think she started at around 1.60 and moved up to 1.80

[matt1216]

But wasn't the line moving in the opposite direction from Mladenovic? I think she started at around 1.60 and moved up to 1.80

Everytime I've seen a line move up more than .10 befor match time, I swear they end up winning. There's soo many lemmings out there it's rediculous

[zec]

Ok, I thought the trend was when the line is moving down like in Socks case as Kenz pointed out down from 2.20 to 1.80 so you are counting on "professionals" putting big money in Sock. Mladenovic seemed opposite.

[matt1216]

Ok, I thought the trend was when the line is moving down like in Socks case as Kenz pointed out down from 2.20 to 1.80 so you are counting on "professionals" putting big money in Sock. Mladenovic seemed opposite.

No Sock started out @1.80 on my book and ended off @1.77 match time. The line did not move that much. I used the reverse strategy on maledenovic.... WTA trends are not as consistant

[matt1216]

​60. Watson +1.5 sets 2.60 x 2 units

[shari91]

Everytime I've seen a line move up more than .10 befor match time, I swear they end up winning. There's soo many lemmings out there it's rediculous

Be careful with that... that doesn't match any of the data from opening vs closing lines at Pinny within the past 8 years or so and including in this tourney and no book compares to sharpness vs them. Don't let selective bias cloud your judgement when making your bets. For every one match where you see line movement works, you'll see 2+ where it doesn't mean a thing. You need to track every match played in every tourney over a few years at a minimum to determine where your specific book falls on the sharpness scale and to grab proper opening and closing lines of each one is a massive undertaking taking into consideration time zone differentials and the sheer amount of them, especially with well-known less sharp books as people aren't collating as much data on them as they've been proven to be insignificant. Long story short - don't overbet on your trends and gl with your bets.

[brodie]

​60. Watson +1.5 sets 2.60 x 2 units

why do you stay hating on my girl halep? u bout to lose a lot of money if you keep fading her

[Bumdeal]

Ok, I thought the trend was when the line is moving down like in Socks case as Kenz pointed out down from 2.20 to 1.80 so you are counting on "professionals" putting big money in Sock. Mladenovic seemed opposite.

don't try to hard to figure out Matt's trends. the trend is which name his dart hits.

[JC1186]

I don't know what's worse.

The fake trend.

Or the people actually trying to figure it out?

[matt1216]

Be careful with that... that doesn't match any of the data from opening vs closing lines at Pinny within the past 8 years or so and including in this tourney and no book compares to sharpness vs them. Don't let selective bias cloud your judgement when making your bets. For every one match where you see line movement works, you'll see 2+ where it doesn't mean a thing. You need to track every match played in every tourney over a few years at a minimum to determine where your specific book falls on the sharpness scale and to grab proper opening and closing lines of each one is a massive undertaking taking into consideration time zone differentials and the sheer amount of them, especially with well-known less sharp books as people aren't collating as much data on them as they've been proven to be insignificant. Long story short - don't overbet on your trends and gl with your bets.

thanks Shari91. ive noticed the trend on the WTA side is fairly streaky. the ATP side ive noticed the Trend is very reliable... the one in paticular Sock ML. from now on ill stay away from the WTA trends and just go with what i feel.

Godd luck with your wagers.

[matt1216]

YTD: 29-30 +8 UNITS Rounded

W/L today was up and down... if it wasnt for the 2 WTA trend plays record wise, things would be better. Befor anybody shits all over me for the trend plays again, heres a breakdown W/L so you can see:

ATP Trend: 8-4

Over/Under 0-2
SU 3-1
2-0 SETS 2-0
1ST SET 3-1

WTA: 8-7

*Safe to say nothing sticks out to here for me.

Trend Plays: 16-11
My Plays: 13-19

I plan on continuing with the ATP trends but ill be extremly selective with the WTA plays. MY plays in general will be cut down somewhat. -1.5 sets and +1.5 sets WTA side have been dreadful


GL

[matt1216]

I will post 1 large play for tomorrow's pick, tonight

[BigNik]

Hey Matty. Any thoughts on the Stosur/Cibulkova match tonight. Stosur been killing it the last few matches

[matt1216]

Hey Matty. Any thoughts on the Stosur/Cibulkova match tonight. Stosur been killing it the last few matches

Yeah bud she's one of my plays Stosur ML.

[Semper Fidelis]

What is your large play for tomorrow Matt? About to hit the sack my friend!

[matt1216]

61. Stosur ML + Gulbis ML 1.75 x 4 units


May 29, 2014 08:53:55 PM
2 Team Parlay #349731642


Tennis - All tournaments for women (Game) Moneyline


If either player retires before the match is completed then the event will be settled as no action.


WTA Women's Singles - Roland Garros, Paris, France


Samantha Stosur 1.50 May 30/14@02:00a


Competitor: Dominika Cibulkova


Tennis - All tournaments for men (Game) Moneyline


If either player retires before the match is completed then the event will be settled as no action.


ATP Men's Singles - Roland Garros, Paris, France


Ernests Gulbis 1.17 May 30/14@02:00a


Competitor: Radek Stepanek


Web CA$ 200.00 CA$ 150.00