Originally Posted by
fitguy67
You may very well be right. Could be a replay of the 2nd one...or a replay of the 1st one...or something altogether different. I agree with you that an in-the-zone Cain is a beast, and he shouId definitely be favored , I just see this as closer to a coin-flip than the odds indicate...meaning it's worth the pop...The best Cain probably is markedly better than the best JDS (just as the best Nadal is clearly better than the best DelPotro)...but rarely in sports, are both opponents at their best on the day. That's where the dice roll comes in--determining which sides actually show up.
For example, Nadal is better than Delpo...but yesterday a below-average Nadal lost to an above-average Delpo...this has happened 4 times now in the 12 times they met)...when you bet on sports, you're essentially betting on the "roulette spin" of what sides actually show up to the event. Do I think dos Santos will win Saturday? Honest answer is "not really" because I know the probability is definitely less than 50%...BUT as long as i have correctly assessed the likelihood to be greater than the mere 33.33% implied by the odds...then I know for sure that "character building" bets like these are good for my account because the occasional $-pop of the "surprise wins" more than offset the calculated $-leakage caused by the unsurprising losses.
I didn't really think StunGun had much of a chance against Erick Silva last weekend either...just better than the odds indicated. So I bet on him. If you keep taking bets like this that you really don't expect to cash...just because they are where the value lies (ie. good for your account over the long haul)...your account will grow cuz there are surprises galore in sports. That's why they play the games/hold the fights.
Taking value bets are like eating spinach...a good habit to get into, maybe unpleasant each time you do it, but definitely good for you in the long run.