[benji2501]

Hello, i was looking at odds for tennis match Montanes/Giraldo today in Oeiras and i was very surprised to see Montanes is the favourite and Giraldo outsider (odd about 2.1). All criteria tell Giraldo should win (i'm not saying he's gonna win, one never knows in sport, but criteria say he should be the favourite of bookmakers in odds):
-in head to head Giraldo leads 4-1 (and he won the two last matchs vs Montanes this year in straight sets)
-the shape of the moment is in favour of Giraldo too (ok he was distroyed by Nishikori in final of Barcelona, but he has made however great tournament with big wins)
-at ATP ranking Giraldo is in front of Montanes
...

Once more, i'm not saying Giraldo is going to win, i have no idea about it, but i would like to understand how is it Montanes is the favourite? Are there criteria i ignore?

[Hareeba!]

Yes it does seem a bit odd.
Many factors come into it but the first should be player rankings.
And with Giraldo 47 v Montanes 57 as well as current form it's a bit puzzling.
But one thing I've come to give respect to in such circumstances is what the market is saying.
I'm not currently betting on or following tennis very closely but it seems there must be something we are both overlooking here?
Caution recommended.

[Hardcoar]

You, like a lot of other people it would seem, apparently don't understand the following: The bookmakers only determine the opening odds, whereafter they adjust to volumes manually as well as automatically.

That said, regarding this case, unless there is any insider information, there is absolutely no reason Giraldo should be above @ 1.65.

[fcmb]

Probably bookmakers are thinking that Santiago might be tired..

[Hareeba!]

One factor at play here which I had quiet a deal of success with in past seasons, and which I think markets are now more aware of is the fact that opposing last week's finalists was quite a profitable ploy.

[Cessation]

One factor at play here which I had quiet a deal of success with in past seasons, and which I think markets are now more aware of is the fact that opposing last week's finalists was quite a profitable ploy.

This would certainly be a factor in the price.

Personally I just avoid players that have made the final the week before, rather than opposing them.

You are just guessing their motivation level/physical capacity and you know if they make the final the week before they are in good form.

Cilic earlier this year went on a monster run of back to back tournies and Kerber is one on the women's side who seems to be an iron woman when in good form.

[pazim]

Giraldo was in the final on sunday and he played 6 days within a week. Last time Montanes played was on 4/24. who do you think will have more energy to chase ball downs and give good effort? Montanes.

[kenz]

Add the fact that Montanes might be the most succesful player in the events history by win-loss record, won in 2009 & 2010 when it was in Estoril, beating Federer in 2010 in semi.

The clay is thinner here, one - handed backhand is an advantage if Montanes is fit and return strong. He does not need to try to cover the court like a 2-handed backhander.

Still I cant pull the trigger here on anyone yet, probably skip it

[benji2501]

One other explanation is too that all bookmakers at the moment simply have to adjust to Marathonbet who proposes 2.34 for Giraldo !! I'm limited to 5 e per bet at marathon :-( ggrrrr I may have lost money, but i would have bet on Giraldo at 2.34! For me that's clearly valuebet, even if as you said he may be tired because of his last week..

[OhMyEli]

The match has been cancelled. Best believe Giraldo was going down

[benji2501]

match has been cancelled??Where did you read it please??

[kenz]

http://www.flashscore.com/match/zHZju2MI/#match-summary

http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/por...iago-zHZju2MI/

[benji2501]

http://www.flashscore.com/match/zHZju2MI/#match-summary

http://www.oddsportal.com/tennis/por...iago-zHZju2MI/

Thank you very much for the information ! I suppose Giraldo must be the one who renounced because of an injury or tuch much tired with his previous week...

[HeeeHAWWWW]

Personally I just avoid players that have made the final the week before, rather than opposing them.

Yep, me too. Very few seem to be physically/mentally capable of rampaging through multiple tournaments in a row, other than the dopers.

Possibly Giraldo is looking towards next week. Madrid is played at a little bit of altitude, and adjusting to that means a lot of players struggle at first. Colombians love that, they're brought up drastically switching altitudes all the time.


Interesting odds chart for this match though, there was heavy betting on Montanes early after from the odds release, he went straight down to evens from an opening 2.5 (which already prices any fatigue for Giraldo). Normally big players with a killer bit of info will wait for higher limits.

[Hardcoar]

Inside information with regards to Giraldo clearly is the answer here, in hindsight.