[JC1186]

So how are you guys missing one of the Hall of Frame Legends of the sport - Mr. Filippo Volandri.

He's a 1.30 favourite to beat Filip Peliwo.

First off, and importantly, it has been a looooong time since Mr. Fix It has been this short in a regular ATP match.

A lot of Liquidity on Betfair.



*Please Note Matt, that took me ​under 2 mins. FYI in uploading a screenshot of your Fischer Bet.

As you can see, the match featuring Goffin has GBP 3,988.

The match featuring Volandri has GBP 59,130.

That's a staggering 1500% the liquidity on the market.

• Same tournament
• Almost Identical Odds

+ The Goffin match starts 2 hours earlier. Which usually equals more liquidity.

This could be nothing, and I'm not one to read too much into "potential fixes" because frankly everyone's just stupidly paranoid I've seen plenty go the wrong way.

But in this instance there's one thing that's clear - There's plenty of money happy to lay Volandri.

It could be nothing. Or it could be something. This for sure will be a fantastic opportunity for a dodgy player to get one last big payout before retirement, by throwing the match.

He'll likely never start this short again in a regular ATP match.

So all thing considered (especially the odds) I've jumped onboard.

[ohdecas]

Thank you for sharing that.. Let's make a winning bet :P

[tipsadontlikehim]

hey man

the money on betfair in huge indeed but it is on Volandri to win the match

so is your theory something like a "backwards fix" ?

I have been a victim of this lately, on a soccer match: there was 55K out of 56 on the draw on one obscure italian match, and guess what home team won 1-0.

apparently it happens a lot on betfair, easy to start a rumor with players like Volandri i guess ?

[JC1186]

hey man

the money on betfair in huge indeed but it is on Volandri to win the match

so is your theory something like a "backwards fix" ?

I have been a victim of this lately, on a soccer match: there was 55K out of 56 on the draw on one obscure italian match, and guess what home team won 1-0.

apparently it happens a lot on betfair, easy to start a rumor with players like Volandri i guess ?

TDLH, remember Betfair is Punter vs. Punter. There are no bookies. Well of course Bookies play around too, but you get my drift.

So yes the money is on Volandri, but on Betfair, the money is always on the short priced favourite because there's always much more liquidity laying and backing that fav player. That's just the way it is.

So what this means is that even though the money is on Volandri, there had to be punters who "laid" Voladri. Thus backing against him. So basically the only assumption we can make right now is that there is a lot of action.

People who want to back Volandri. But also others who are VERY quick to lay him at the requested price.

And that's when we ask the question 'why?'.

Anyway sounds like you learnt the hard way which does suck. And it's always true that people with money can "influence" the market and scare muppets into thinking it's a fix. Thus driving the price up or down.

But don't be fooled into thinking tennis and soccer are even remotely close in terms of pulling off a fix. In Soccer it takes the entire team, coach, and possibly management to orchestrate the fix. If the money was on a "draw" like you said, it would most likely require both teams. Thus 30 or so people all up.

Where as in tennis it takes just the one man. No one else needs to know.

[tipsadontlikehim]

yeah i get what i mean

anyway Volandri is big favourite for this match so it would make no sense the game is fixed for him to win!!

Good luck

[JC1186]

Thanks. But hopefully I don't need any luck whatsoever and the outcome is already pre-determined.

[jjgold]

too little money to tell, there is some fixing but its getting harder with betfair checking everything

[faststeady]

its been a good arbers/traders match for sure, there's many matches many weeks that show these signals but its mainly blanks and just books not keeping up.

[Optional]

yeah i get what i mean

anyway Volandri is big favourite for this match so it would make no sense the game is fixed for him to win!!

Good luck

Sounds like you really don't get what he means.

The people "in on the fix" currently have about 50k bet on Peliwo to win 140k on betfair.

He's saying there is always people ready to bet a big favourite. And what we are seeing here is a lot more people willing to bet against those favourite backers in this match.

[necro]

jut take a look into match between viola and p.davydenko

p.davydenko huge underdog, won first set in tb 7-0, than leading in 2nd set and complete meltdown, lost 2nd tb 0-7

lol

[JC1186]

I was always expecting Volandri to go a break up early. That's what you do - you try to lower your price.

BUT he only fell to 1.22 after a break and a hold. That it itself it good news, because people were laying him and driving the price up higher than usual.

A 1.30 favourite going 2-0 up straight away would usually drop to around 1.14-1.16.

[SharkAA]

First set goes to Peliwo. Is any1 watching this match to determine, that there are really some funny stuff going on?

[JC1186]

Not streamed. But so far it has followed the general fix script.

1. Fixing player goes up an early break.
2. Fixing player is then broken back mid set so it's not as obvious as being broken when serving for it.
3. Fixing player than looks are though he's trying really hard and holds serve.
4. Fixing player finally loses in a tightly contested TB, so to not look "too suspicious".

Anyway that's only one set down and without a stream it's impossible to know. Peliwo, on paper, looked like he could cause an upset anyway given two upsets against decent players in Qualifying. So again, it's difficult to know.

[Optional]

Hmmmm

[ohdecas]

stand up

[SharkAA]

Point by point - Set 1
		1 - 0		LOST SERVE
15:0, 15:15, 15:30, 30:30, 30:40, 40:40, A:40BP
		2 - 0
0:15, 15:15, 30:15, 30:30, 40:30
		2 - 1
0:15, 0:30, 0:40, 15:40
		3 - 1
0:15, 15:15, 15:30, 30:30, 40:30
		3 - 2
0:15, 0:30, 15:30, 15:40
		4 - 2
0:15, 15:15, 30:15, 40:15
		4 - 3
0:15, 0:30, 0:40
LOST SERVE		4 - 4
0:15, 15:15, 30:15, 30:30, 30:40BP
		4 - 5
0:15, 0:30, 0:40
		5 - 5
0:15, 15:15, 30:15, 30:30, 30:40BPSP, 40:40, 40:ABPSP, 40:40, A:40
		5 - 6
15:0, 15:15, 30:15, 30:30, 40:30BP, 40:40, 40:A
		6 - 6
15:0, 15:15, 30:15, 40:15
		66 - 78
Tiebreak - Set 1
		1 - 0		LOST SERVE
		2 - 0
LOST SERVE		2 - 1
		2 - 2
		2 - 3
LOST SERVE		2 - 4
LOST SERVE		2 - 5
		3 - 5		LOST SERVE
		4 - 5		LOST SERVE
		5 - 5
SP		6 - 5
		6 - 6
		6 - 7		SP
LOST SERVE		6 - 8

Point by point - Set 2
LOST SERVE		0 - 1
0:15, 15:15, 15:30, 30:30, 40:30, 40:40, A:40, 40:40, 40:ABP
		1 - 1		LOST SERVE
15:0, 30:0, 40:0BP, 40:15BP
		2 - 1
15:0, 15:15, 30:15, 40:15
		2 - 2
15:0, 15:15, 15:30, 15:40
		3 - 2
0:15, 15:15, 30:15, 40:15
		3 - 3
0:15, 15:15, 15:30, 15:40
LOST SERVE		3 - 4
15:0, 30:0, 30:15, 30:30, 40:30, 40:40, 40:ABP
		3 - 5
15:0, 30:0, 40:0BP, 40:15BP, 40:30BP, 40:40, 40:A
LOST SERVE		3 - 6
15:0, 15:15, 30:15, 30:30, 30:40BPMP, 40:40, 40:ABPMP

Weird stuff...

[JC1186]

After following the match, dead set, I think it was a pretty clear fix.

Volandri's odds barely dropping after going a break up was the clearest "in-play" sign.

Well done to those whom got on.

[tipsadontlikehim]

congrats!

[JC1186]

congrats!

Thanks. It's unfortunate the "no so" dodgy soccer match scared you off.

[Hardcoar]

hey man

the money on betfair in huge indeed but it is on Volandri to win the match

so is your theory something like a "backwards fix" ?

I have been a victim of this lately, on a soccer match: there was 55K out of 56 on the draw on one obscure italian match, and guess what home team won 1-0.

apparently it happens a lot on betfair, easy to start a rumor with players like Volandri i guess ?

Money doesn't gossip. Money kicks it to you hard and real... like Ice-T!

[Hardcoar]

yeah i get what i mean

anyway Volandri is big favourite for this match so it would make no sense the game is fixed for him to win!!

Good luck

I know you're French but Jebus-titty-f*cking-Jerzy man!

[Hardcoar]

Sounds like you really don't get what he means.

The people "in on the fix" currently have about 50k bet on Peliwo to win 140k on betfair.

He's saying there is always people ready to bet a big favourite. And what we are seeing here is a lot more people willing to bet against those favourite backers in this match.

"The rich stay healthy and the sick stay poor"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fz2ubhZL7n4

[addictedto]

JC1186, good find man, all you were saying is logical.
And Betfair doesn't give a fukk about fixes, they just take commission from both backers and layers, so best sign is when bookies start pulling out these dodgy games, then all you need is the exchange market.

You are welcome to share any new tennis games you spot.

[poet]

Very impressive! A lot of people here talk about fixes, but you are the first one that I know of who spotted it before the match and made money off of it. Wow.

[matt1216]

JC1186, did Hasse throw his match earlier? I was just wondering if you knew where the money was at for that match? Hasse up 5-2 1st set in complete control, then just drops every serve point like Nodoyvsov was federer. Just trash

[JC1186]

Cheers for the kind words fellas.

Matt, I caught most of the match and it just looked like a typical Hasse meltdown. The market continued to have confidence in Robin right though the match (even when a set and 2-0 down) so the money certainly wasn't indicating anything deceptive.

Haase's "low" is pretty much bordering on abysmal and he's had plenty of shocking losses over the years.

[matt1216]

Cheers for the kind words fellas.

Matt, I caught most of the match and it just looked like a typical Hasse meltdown. The market continued to have confidence in Robin right though the match (even when a set and 2-0 down) so the money certainly wasn't indicating anything deceptive.

Haase's "low" is pretty much bordering on abysmal and he's had plenty of shocking losses over the years.

Ahh I see. Fck, of all guys to lose to. I didn't realize he was that shaky at times, thanks