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SK's Indian Wells 2014 Picks Thread
I like betting tennis, but stick mostly to the four Slams and a 500/1000 point tourney here and there. Previous tourney threads linked below. Hoping to continue the good luck in Indian Wells.
$50 units. Plays typically 1-3u (95%+ of plays will be in this range), with an absolute max of 10u.
1) Eugenie Bouchard to win the WTA BNP Paribas Open (+7000) x0.5
SK's Australian Open 2014 Picks Thread
good luck. nice having another opinion available
2) Matthew Ebden ML (+290) x1
fading hewitt usually smart, wonder if its ezz cash
Not easy, but mispriced. Ebden's poor run has come against some big servers (Chardy, Karlovic, Pospisil) and Hewitt's Brisbane win is looking more and more like an aberration than a sign of a revival.Originally Posted by Cappinpicks
Hey sir, very impressive results from the Australian Open. Why do you bet on big tournaments only?
By the way, I don't think Bouchard has even a small chance of winning this but maybe I am wrong...
Thanks.
I stick to the bigger events because I'm not super familiar with the majority of players outside the top 30 or so, and in smaller tournaments, top players are less likely to be as focused as in the more valuable tourneys. Sometimes they're just getting their work in, but it's tough to go against them consistently either when the talent level is so one-sided. There might be the occasional spot play in a 250 tourney where someone's a returning champ or has been on a bad run and looking to mend their confidence in a weak field, but it's just so much tougher to predict. However, almost everyone brings their A game for Slams/1000/500 events.
And I'd be surprised if the Bouchard ticket cashes, but in general, I think she wins a notable tournament this season at some point. Her game is still developing, but in my mind she's a future top 5 womens player and even if she's not quite at that level yet, she's in a great position to keep climbing this year. Her route will likely be Peng/Errani/Halep/Azarenka/Radwanska/Li and I think she should make it at least to Azarenka. VA is a complete head-case and AR can be overpowered quite easily if her accuracy is not on or she's tired. It's a tough line, for sure, but who can say what will happen late in the tourney. Hot weather, nagging injuries, lack of focus, etc has paved the way for lesser players to go deep into major tourneys many times in the past. $25 @ 70-1 is not a major investment in the grand scheme of things, given her projected upside.
Last edited by suicidekings; 03-06-14 at 04:59 PM.
3) Watson/Radwanska Under 20.5 games (-125) x1
4) Bouchard -1.5 sets (+124) x1
Last edited by suicidekings; 03-07-14 at 12:59 PM.
5) Mladonevic ML (+311) x0.5
Overall: 2-2 (+0.74u)
6) Murray -6.5 games (+205) x1
7) Julia Goerges ML (+512) x0.5
8) Tomljanovic ML (+229) x1
9) Berdych / Bautista-Agut Over 19.5 games (-124) x1
10) Vasek Pospisil ML (-123) x1
11) Eugenie Bouchard ML (-116) x1
Last edited by suicidekings; 03-09-14 at 12:55 PM.
12) Halep -1.5 sets (+104) x1
What an embarassment from Pospisil...
1-5 (-3.73u)
Overall: 3-7 (-2.99u)
Adding: Bouchard ML (-118) x2
1-0 (+3u)
Overall: 4-7 (+0.01u)
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13) Parlay: [Wawrinka ML + Nadal ML] (-382) x2
Not really my style of bet, but worthwhile, I think.
Brutal loss.
0-1 (-7.64u)
Overall: 4-8 (-7.63u)
14) LIVE (1-0 Stephens) Ivanovic ML (+210) x1
15) Haas +4 (-128) x1.5
16) Haas ML (+181) x1
2-1 (+2.31u)
Overall: 6-9 (-5.32u)
1 Future pending
I've never been a fan of Nishikori. He's one of those guys that lives off opponent's UFEs, keeping the ball in play instead of playing a more aggressive style. An in-form Haas (as he appears to be right now) is too good for that strategy to work.
17) Bouchard ML (+171) x2
18) Dimitrov ML (-120) x1
0-1 (-2u)
Overall: 6-10 (-7.32u)
Adding: Dimitrov ML (+104) x2
19) Giorgi +3 (-120) x1
20) LIVE (1st set, 5-4 Cornet): Radwanska ML (-108) x1
I clearly don't have a good grasp on this tourney at all, even with a couple of the losses being by razor thin margins... It's been quite unconventional thus far, with several big upsets. But I've got to play it out.
21) Cibulkova ML (-113) x2
Hang in there SK. I've had a solid run since the latter half of the Aussie Open to right before Indian Wells, but I too have hit the skids here. Closing on a nice streak will do wonders for the wallet and, more importantly, the gambling psyche, so stick with it. Looking forward to your plays the rest of the way.
2-2 (-1.4u)
Overall: 8-12 (-8.72u)
22) LIVE (1-0 Anderson, 4-3 Wawrinka 2nd set): Wawrinka (-105) x3
Thanks JD. Just a mental step back to regroup for me. Too little research to start off the week, which is a killer when not keeping track of players on a regular basis. We'll call this half-time and try to finish strong.
Hopefully starting with Stan.
Later on, I think Fed wins but he's overpriced considering Haas' current form.
And Cilic is playing extremely well while Djokovic has looked very beatable so far. Cilic +453 and/or Over 21.5 seem like excellent plays...
Last edited by suicidekings; 03-12-14 at 07:08 PM.
Ridiculous tournament...
0-1 (-3.15u)
Overall: 8-13 (-11.87u)
Last edited by suicidekings; 03-12-14 at 07:50 PM.
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