1. 01-17-14 01:45 PM #1
    sluggy1616
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    Monfils Moneyline wager??

    I'll be looking at the monfils money line later today.

    I'm going with a joint probability model to see whether I will bet or not.

    Probability(in my mind at least) of:

    Nadal being off his normal high quality game: 25%

    Monfils who is playing well having a very good match: 45%

    Probability of both events happening is 11.25%

    If Monfils money line says he has a greater than 11.25% chance of winning the match I will be betting.

    Anyone agree/disagree with my logic?
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  2. 01-17-14 02:26 PM #2
    jessetk313
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    Sounds good I just don't see any chance of Nadal losing no matter what probability models say so unless you are going really small it's money burned IMO. However, with that said BOL to you and I hope you cash!
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  3. 01-17-14 02:29 PM #3
    tipsadontlikehim
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    it's worth a bet IMO, Nadal doesn't like the surface at all
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  4. 01-17-14 08:35 PM #4
    lucasdawg
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    may play this or most likely the over hopefully monfils will hang in there
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  5. 01-17-14 08:50 PM #5
    sluggy1616
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    I'm getting 25% chance of win per 5 dimes line(if i'm calcing this crap right) I'm gonna think some more. I would only lay a qtr unit if I did anything
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  6. 01-17-14 08:53 PM #6
    GoBlue77
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    worth a small stake, good luck
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  7. 01-17-14 10:05 PM #7
    Pinocchio
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    Monfils to win a set seems like a decent bet to me... something to put in a solid parlay.
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  8. 01-17-14 10:10 PM #8
    dlweaver
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    Quote Originally Posted by sluggy1616 View Post
    I'm getting 25% chance of win per 5 dimes line(if i'm calcing this crap right) I'm gonna think some more. I would only lay a qtr unit if I did anything
    5dimes reduced is +698 roughly +700. That would mean risking 1 unit to win 7. To make a profit of 1 unit you could win just one out of every seven (lose 6 units win 7 units) therefore he only needs to win around 14.3% of the time for it to be profitable.
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  9. 01-17-14 10:26 PM #9
    sluggy1616
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    Quote Originally Posted by dlweaver View Post
    5dimes reduced is +698 roughly +700. That would mean risking 1 unit to win 7. To make a profit of 1 unit you could win just one out of every seven (lose 6 units win 7 units) therefore he only needs to win around 14.3% of the time for it to be profitable.
    Your number makes more sense then what I calculated. I'd down for a half unit. I'll take my lumps today. No plays tomorrow for me.
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