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I think it is not a bad idea to put some on Djokovic 2-1 @4.50
Or Isner 2-1 @12 is also great, he cant serve that consistent to beat Djokovic in 2. I think better than Isner ML
H2H supports me, but with or without H2H I am also thinking about first set over 10.5 @2.42, over 12.5 @2.75
I bought there will be a tiebreak already.
I feel I will buy 3-4 bets
so far i have Isner ML and the TB,yes at 1.70/-143. The latter seems as close to a steal as you can get, based on historical frequencies (with the ridiculously small sample sizes we're forced to work with as far as the "tea leaf" reading we call capping).Originally Posted by kenz
***I like your idea of somehow playing the "will go 3 sets" angle. One way could be by melding the 2-1/1-2 plus-money options as above. (You could also get the same effect with a single over2.5sets bet if available.)
***Also like your idea of playing the "first set will be a long one" angle.
About betting on propositions applying to the first set vs. later sets...overall talent/recent form and plausible "game plans" utilizing them would seem to be more reliable as predictors in the earlier sets in general, and most strongly in the first set...as stamina/fitness/chronic injuries etc. less likely to be any impediment to performance earlier...but become increasingly important as the match goes on...So, when Isner is strongest, that's when he's most likely to be able to serve lights out and to rally hard if necessary to prevent being broken at all costs. Seems his game plan hinges on preventing being broken in the first set, to at the very worst force a TB, in which he has a much better than coin-flip shot...then to capitalize on the momentum of winning the first set (including the demoralization of his opponent...to have worked so long and hard to be down a set)...doing "whatever is necessary" to win the first set against a top-tier opponent almost guarantees a long set.
Think i will also look to play each of these two additional angles as you suggest.
Last edited by fitguy67; 03-15-14 at 01:58 PM.
Isner will have to hit 80% of his first serves today. He was somethin like 31% second serves in set 1 vs gulbis. This will be gulbis on steroids today lol.
I think they are a bit high to be honest. Djokovic clearly struggles against Isner (the serve in particular, unsurprisingly), who was very composed against Gulbis despite a couple lapses and for the most part was serving bombs. He will want to be more consistent tonight in this regard however. Djokovic isn't the best of servers on the other hand, and in terms of style-of-play this should be easier on Isner's game. Add to this that Djokovic has not looked very good lately at all (by his high standards, of course), and selected Isner bets might be good here.
Not really. It's just an illusion caused by momentary luck.
I didn't take Pennetta 2-0 because I thought the odds for 2-1 held more value, and I thought Pennetta dropping a set in a potential victory was very likely.
I was unable to catch the match though.
KEXX
KEXX
FUXX
Total hits: 159
Total mishits: 215
Total stake: 1624u
Net yield: +160.054u
ROI: +9.86% (rounded)
Last edited by Hardcoar; 03-16-14 at 08:56 AM. Reason: Wrong format used; Corrected quoting.
today's matchups...
Isner v. "Gulbis on steroids" (aka. Djokovic)
In-the-zone Dolgopolov v. "In-the-zone Dolgopolov on steroids" (aka Federer)
Last edited by fitguy67; 03-15-14 at 02:50 PM.
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Peya/Soares @ 3.53 – 3 units (Pinnacle)
Radwanska to win Indian Wells (all in) @ 1.503 – 5 units (Pinnacle)
Federror 1:st @ 2.49 – 3 units (Pinnacle)
all in but 5 units
Can you explain please? tnx
Good luck today ferrero rocher!!
i think the "(all in)" part is an attempt at hyperbolic humour.
At least that's how i took it...unless he's privvy to a mob-enforced fix on the match.
Last edited by fitguy67; 03-16-14 at 02:33 PM.
Ha...ok...
No that's a description of the bet type.
By that, oh pedantic one, you mean that ALL of the 5units you later specify for the same bet is IN...damn you're clever
ultimately, i doubt if you or anyone else would actually take the posted bet with the commonly-accepted meaning of "risking the entire available bankroll"(= ALL of your available units "IN"= risked) on the bet
As it turned out though, the ARad you were betting on was replaced by that same look-alike POS that replaced her in the AO semis against Cibulkova...a zombie-like PMS-sufferer who should have retired between sets instead of obviously just "going thru the motions' as she did...
Last edited by fitguy67; 03-16-14 at 08:17 PM.
I don't know what you're meaning to say, but I mean that the bet type is "all in". No matter what happens, the bet wins or loses.
Honestly Flavia was whoreshit against Cibulkova and Li. Radwanska was fantastic against Halep. I had no idea she'd barely be able to walk without a toilet-break two days later... tough luck!
ARad had the exact same 24-conversion at the AO between the quarters (against Azarenka, if I recall)...and the semi's against Cibulkova (who had taken out Halep in her QFmatch)...
from female version of David Ferrer in the QF against Azarenka to lifeless-impassive POS against Cibulkova...
same thing as yesterday vs. Halep and today vs. Pennetta...
if i cared enough about WTA i'd take the number of days between the AO semi-final and the IW final and divide by, say 28.5...wouldn't be surprised if it came out close to a whole number
Last edited by fitguy67; 03-16-14 at 08:50 PM.
WTA is bullshit
But you are doing exceptionally good generally, so I cant advise you to not bet on this non-sport
Good one.
FUXX
FUXX
KEXX
Total hits: 160
Total mishits: 217
Total stake: 1635u
Net yield: +156.524u
ROI: +9.6% (rounded)
Cabeza-Candela @ 3.63 – 3 units (Pinnacle)
Garcia @ 2.43 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
Larsson @ 2.41 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
Mayr-Achleitner @ 1.746 – 5 units (Pinnacle)
Svitolina 1:st @ 2.05 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
Garcia @ 2.61 – 5 units (Pinnacle)
Goffin @ 1.862 – 3 units (Pinnacle)
Wickmayer -0.5 @ 1.893 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
Flink @ 5.58 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
Rybarikova -1 @ 1.847 – 5 units (Pinnacle)
Dellacqua 1:st @ 1.671 – 4 units (Pinnacle)
Rybarikova not looking good though...
Been following your thread for a while, what's your opinion on the Melzer match?
I think Kleybanova will win with ease, and that the odds are about right.
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