[tevari]

Basically the same distribution as my Wimbledon picks, with greater faith in Djokovic and a 'get your money back" bet on Murray.

[beefcake]

Jerzy at 70-1 on hard where he can slam it..yes please..

Commie bastard Wawra played so well in Melbourne, it might play into his confidence level of thinking he can succeed again on an outdoor hard.

[tevari]

Until someone outside of the big 4 + DelPo wins a slam, my money isn't going anywhere else.

[Hardcoar]

Healthy Po'Mo is definitely ahead of Federer at this point IMO.

Negative value in Jerzy-Shorts @ 70. @ 300 for Wimbledon was nice, but now even more of the novelty has worn off. Tough luck for us Jerzy lovers...

Maybe Sock @ 1 000 000 is worth a shot...

[Noleafclover]

Murray 3x as likely to win as Nadal?

[Hardcoar]

Clearly he isn't. The market is overreacting to the uncertainty surrounding Rafa. It holds som value to me. Think of it as "50/50" between him being at least as likely to win as Murray, and 50 % not standing a chance...

I'll roll with Djokobo @ 3. Po'Mo @ 40 during Wimbledon was also nice.

[GoBlue77]

tennis futures are easy money for the books 9 times out of 10 unless its Rafa playing in the French open. its like super bowl prop bets, surprised you bet on this

[EaglesPhan36]

Even shakier than usual to make these bets before draws come out IMO. With the shuffling outside of Djokovic & Murray, draws are going to start varying more than we have seen in the past 2-3 three years. Ferrer #3 right now. Federer outside @ #5. Lots can change with those Masters tourneys in the Summer too. I mean obviously taking Djokovic & Murray bets at this point seem logical, but I don't see why you would want to make anything this far out.

[Hardcoar]

Ironically, the one person you would not want in your draw is going to be Po'Mo...

[EaglesPhan36]

Why is that ironic? Besides your obvious hatred of him (lose a big bet on him or just scared of his manly goodness?) ... the guy has always been one of the top 2-3 threats outside of the former Big Four that you did not want to see if he was healthy. The others being Tsonga and Berdych - all dependent on form of course.

A couple more things to consider .... #1, I think motivation wise - Djokovic will be the only guy that I trust here. He'll be desperate again to win a 2nd Slam just like last year. You know it eats at him to make Finals and not win. Murray is one where I want to trust him, but the Wimbledon win ... I think you have to monitor him during the US Open Hard Court series to see what he looks like. Even though he usually shows up at most Slams and does well, there could be an emotional letdown after the whole "first Brit to win Wimbledon" thing.

The other guy I am going to look at is Nadal. Do you want to trust his health? No. But if there is one guy who feeds off the notion that he is "done." - Nadal has proved that already with what he did on clay. Sounds like he will manage himself correctly as he only plans to play Cincy and Rogers Cup in Montreal before the US Open, so he should be fresh if his health is good.

Also curious to see Federer. From a motivation standpoint, you can't get much more fuel than he has right now. Almost every media outlet and alot of bettors have written Federer as fading into the sunset. It's definitely a different vibe from before last season when he won Wimbledon. He was at least playing fairly consistently in 2012 prior to that. This year, he's had a real tough time. Very interested to see where he winds up in the draw as he faces the task of not being a top four seed for the first time in what ... a decade?

Really adds to the intrigue of what I think is going to be as usual my favorite Slam.

[Hardcoar]

Del'Potro is one of my (at least) ten most favorite players. I by absolutely no means hate him. Why are you so sore all of a sudden?

[EaglesPhan36]

You always seem to talk shit about him or that is all I have seen from ya. Strange behavior from a fan.

[Hardcoar]

I talk shit about lots of people on the internet.

[Goat Milk]

Federer will surprise a lot of people. As we all know, the US open is all about the serve, which is why Rafa struggled for so long to win here. Federer will bring his A game to the open, not sure if he can handle a Djokovic in a best of 5 on these courts anymore though. What does the draw look like? This tournament is gonna be brutal on Rafa's knees. It's gonna be tough to win another hard court slam for him.

Murray right now is on another level than anyone else because his serve has really become a deadly weapon. I think Murray right now at this moment is the best player in the world.

[RichardGeorge]

Djokovic > Murray and its not even close IMO.

Federer is done..anyone who thinks otherwise is in complete denial.

[GoBlue77]

Djokovic > Murray and its not even close IMO.

Federer is done..anyone who thinks otherwise is in complete denial.

he was done last year according to everyone. wimbledon champ.

fed less than 100% is still better than most on tour

[RichardGeorge]

He lost to stakhovsky on his best surface in a grand slam... I think that says it all

[Seto]

Why is that ironic? Besides your obvious hatred of him (lose a big bet on him or just scared of his manly goodness?) ... the guy has always been one of the top 2-3 threats outside of the former Big Four that you did not want to see if he was healthy. The others being Tsonga and Berdych - all dependent on form of course.

A couple more things to consider .... #1, I think motivation wise - Djokovic will be the only guy that I trust here. He'll be desperate again to win a 2nd Slam just like last year. You know it eats at him to make Finals and not win. Murray is one where I want to trust him, but the Wimbledon win ... I think you have to monitor him during the US Open Hard Court series to see what he looks like. Even though he usually shows up at most Slams and does well, there could be an emotional letdown after the whole "first Brit to win Wimbledon" thing.

The other guy I am going to look at is Nadal. Do you want to trust his health? No. But if there is one guy who feeds off the notion that he is "done." - Nadal has proved that already with what he did on clay. Sounds like he will manage himself correctly as he only plans to play Cincy and Rogers Cup in Montreal before the US Open, so he should be fresh if his health is good.

Also curious to see Federer. From a motivation standpoint, you can't get much more fuel than he has right now. Almost every media outlet and alot of bettors have written Federer as fading into the sunset. It's definitely a different vibe from before last season when he won Wimbledon. He was at least playing fairly consistently in 2012 prior to that. This year, he's had a real tough time. Very interested to see where he winds up in the draw as he faces the task of not being a top four seed for the first time in what ... a decade?

Really adds to the intrigue of what I think is going to be as usual my favorite Slam.

I agree 100% about Andy. He tends to feed off his (consistent) Wimbledon disappointment to regularly do well at the US, made his first slam final there, won his first slam there. Also won the juniors I think. But now that he's succeded at Wimbledon I would stay well away. Also, I think him being favored over Novak (pinny had Novak +193 Andy +183 for a short while yesterday) on hard is nonsensical as far as I'm concerned.

Rafa +850 is really hard to resist despite health issues. I'd take DelPo at +2000 or more but his Wimbledon showing has made his odds drop too much. Until he shows me otherwise, I think Fed is done and goodness knows I'd love to be wrong, so I won't be touching him either. Don't bother with Jerzy good chance he doesn't make 2nd week. Him having the same odds as proven players like Tsonga and Berdych is really a head-stratcher to me.

As of now I think the best value is in Novak and Rafa but I won't be betting on either because 1) I'd like to see the draw first 2) I don't want to root against Andy

[EaglesPhan36]

Novak is probably the only player I would take every Slam without seeing a draw. Past 11 Slams, he has been in the final eight times & semis the other three. No sure things, but that is pretty damn close.

[Hardcoar]

Not to mention you'd like a lot more certainty as to Rafa's physical shape before throwing your cash in his direction.

[Seto]

Novak is probably the only player I would take every Slam without seeing a draw. Past 11 Slams, he has been in the final eight times & semis the other three. No sure things, but that is pretty damn close.

Andy has similar stats if you take out the French. Couldn't even remember the last early exit (prior to semis) in one of the other 3. Had to look it up. 3R at the 2010 US Open. Since in 8 non-clay slams 8 semis 4 finals 2 wins.

[Seto]

Not to mention you'd like a lot more certainty as to Rafa's physical shape before throwing your cash in his direction.

That too.

[EaglesPhan36]

Andy has similar stats if you take out the French. Couldn't even remember the last early exit (prior to semis) in one of the other 3. Had to look it up. 3R at the 2010 US Open. Since in 8 non-clay slams 8 semis 4 finals 2 wins.

Similar, but not even close to making the Final almost every Slam. Murray has a great semi streak, but he's not always in the Finals. He may begin to be in that position all the time - but Djokovic is already there.

[Goat Milk]

Djokovic > Murray and its not even close IMO.

Federer is done..anyone who thinks otherwise is in complete denial.

Murray is the best player in the world right now. Djoker is the more consistant player though and better all time (as far as full body of work). I say Murray stays on this course for another year or two and then slides back down to a top 3-4 player like he's been for most of his career

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

tennis futures are easy money for the books 9 times out of 10 unless its Rafa playing in the French open. its like super bowl prop bets, surprised you bet on this

[Sport_Fish]

Burning money on Federer....I highly doubt he even makes a deep run.

[Goat Milk]

Burning money on Federer....I highly doubt he even makes a deep run.

fed wins it?

[Sport_Fish]

fed wins it?

lol good one.

Just watch. So many people have this false hope about Federer because they still perceive him to be the best.

Its a simple fact, his time has come and his career is going downhill. He's simply not good enough anymore. May not be as bad as his Wimbledon (his best surface I might add), but he isn't making noise at the US open, let alone WINNING it.

[tevari]

Rudy Tomjanovic, circa 1995 after the Rockets won the title: "Never underestimate the heart of a champion!" ...though I do agree he's an outside shot, I'd hardly think it's "burning money"...

[Goat Milk]

murray favored to win the open now

[Hardcoar]

Though in reality, it is Djokobo who is favored...

[Seto]

Rafa already down to about +400 on Pinny..