1. 03-26-13 11:08 PM #1
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Load up on Murray to win Miami

    With Djoker dusted tonight by Haas, it's Murray's tournament to lose. Only player I can see giving Murray a good match is perhaps Berdych. Ferrer won't be able to beat Murray on this surface. This surface blends in well with Murray's defensive type game.

    Murray wins the title in Miami.
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  2. 03-26-13 11:16 PM #2
    CaptainOmar111
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    Murray plays shitty and badly in Miami 2013 , so I think another player can do it !!! but Murray ! I do not think so
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  3. 03-26-13 11:22 PM #3
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainOmar111 View Post
    Murray plays shitty and badly in Miami 2013 , so I think another player can do it !!! but Murray ! I do not think so
    Murray does that all the time, starts off slowly in the opening rounds. Only plays enough to win. When it counts in the later rounds, he's more focused. The only player that can beat him on hardcourts is Djoker or Del Potro. Now that his arch nemesis is gone, he's not gonna mess around. He's not winning the French so this is his best shot at a Masters 1000 title before Wimbledon.
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  4. 03-26-13 11:26 PM #4
    CaptainOmar111
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagicDiceFlow View Post
    Murray does that all the time, starts off slowly in the opening rounds. Only plays enough to win. When it counts in the later rounds, he's more focused. The only player that can beat him on hardcourts is Djoker. Now that his arch nemesis is gone, he's not gonna mess around. He's not winning the French so this is his best shot at a Masters 1000 title before Wimbledon.
    I think big goal for Murray is to reach the final to get the 2nd place in the ATP Ranking from Roger Federer !!! but his chance to win the championship is only %75 !!! Good Luck !!!
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  5. 03-26-13 11:57 PM #5
    Sport_Fish
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    Agree 100%

    Only concern is how bad the price on him would have gotten after today...any books have lines up yet? Don't see it at Bet365.
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  6. 03-27-13 12:16 AM #6
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sport_Fish View Post
    Agree 100%

    Only concern is how bad the price on him would have gotten after today...any books have lines up yet? Don't see it at Bet365.
    The price should still be very profitable at this stage because Murray still has to go through Cilic, Berdych, and possibly Ferrer in the final. I'd say if the price is +300 or better to win the whole thing, go for it. If the books won't post a line on it, just bet him moneyline to win every match here on out and double down after each match. You should get a nice payout of at least +300.
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  7. 03-27-13 12:24 AM #7
    Sport_Fish
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagicDiceFlow View Post
    The price should still be very profitable at this stage because Murray still has to go through Cilic, Berdych, and possibly Ferrer in the final. I'd say if the price is +300 or better to win the whole thing, go for it. If the books won't post a line on it, just bet him moneyline to win every match here on out and double down after each match. You should get a nice payout of at least +300.
    wow you really think it'll be around +300? I was thinking around +185 range give or take. +300 would be beyond amazing.

    But i'd be shocked if its even near that because the only real threat as of now is Berdych. He won't lose to Cilic so if he can get passed Berdych/Gasquet, it should be an easy win vs any of Simon/Haas/Ferrer.
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  8. 03-27-13 12:35 AM #8
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sport_Fish View Post
    wow you really think it'll be around +300? I was thinking around +185 range give or take. +300 would be beyond amazing.

    But i'd be shocked if its even near that because the only real threat as of now is Berdych. He won't lose to Cilic so if he can get passed Berdych/Gasquet, it should be an easy win vs any of Simon/Haas/Ferrer.
    I wouldnt take anything less than +200. If the books won't hang a decent number, bet him moneyline each match here on out. They'll be some suckers taking Berdych against him so the line shouldnt be that crazy.
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  9. 03-27-13 01:51 AM #9
    gregm
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    Judging from the lines Murray got with Berdych last year, Murray (-244 to -277 range) , Murrays numbers against Ferrer in 2011 on hard (-400 and up), Murray has absolutely dominated Ferrer on hard courts.

    Murray at -105 to win Miami is worth a punt, Berdych already went 3 sets here with Falla and Traver and you have to look at Murrays numbers on hard court compared to Berdych. Ferrer might have a chance but probably not on this surface. I think Murray gets his first title of the year.
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  10. 03-27-13 02:04 AM #10
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by gregm View Post
    Judging from the lines Murray got with Berdych last year, Murray (-244 to -277 range) , Murrays numbers against Ferrer in 2011 on hard (-400 and up), Murray has absolutely dominated Ferrer on hard courts.

    Murray at -105 to win Miami is worth a punt, Berdych already went 3 sets here with Falla and Traver and you have to look at Murrays numbers on hard court compared to Berdych. Ferrer might have a chance but probably not on this surface. I think Murray gets his first title of the year.
    Agree.....Berdych is the only major obstacle remaining and he's simply not playing good enough to beat Murray. I don't see Heritage putting out any futures odds on Miami so I'm gonna put a few units on Murray starting tomorrow vs. Cilic and bet him the rest of the way thru.

    Good luck
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  11. 03-27-13 03:20 AM #11
    gaebiskon
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    Murray's 1.98 on betfair and average odds among bookies is 1.83
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  12. 03-27-13 04:16 AM #12
    Sport_Fish
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    wow Murray not even + money

    Looks like books agree on Murray winning this thing
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  13. 03-27-13 04:39 AM #13
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Books are only gonna offer even money when Murray still has three matches to win and two of those matches against players in the top 6?? Screw that , I'm no sucker ........I'm better off just unloading on his match against Berdych and not have to worry about Cilic and Ferrer.
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  14. 03-27-13 07:10 AM #14
    secret007
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagicDiceFlow View Post
    The price should still be very profitable at this stage because Murray still has to go through Cilic, Berdych, and possibly Ferrer in the final. I'd say if the price is +300 or better to win the whole thing, go for it. If the books won't post a line on it, just bet him moneyline to win every match here on out and double down after each match. You should get a nice payout of at least +300.
    just wondering, when you estimate Murray to be about +300, how did you come up with that number? Murray is obviously the favorite to win the whole thing with 8 players left. If you put him at +300, how about Ferrer? how about Berdych? You can make a killing just betting on those 3..
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  15. 03-27-13 04:00 PM #15
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by secret007 View Post
    just wondering, when you estimate Murray to be about +300, how did you come up with that number? Murray is obviously the favorite to win the whole thing with 8 players left. If you put him at +300, how about Ferrer? how about Berdych? You can make a killing just betting on those 3..
    Murray is a much more solid bet than the other two. Even though I've got much respect for Ferrer, this is hardcourts which isnt his strongest surface and he can run into trouble at times on this surface.
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  16. 03-27-13 08:46 PM #16
    CaptainOmar111
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    I think Murray will not win M.Clic easily ( if he wins LOL ) Good Luck
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  17. 03-28-13 03:55 PM #17
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Cilic down......Murray easily in straight sets...2 more matches to go for the title.

    Hopefully Berdych wins today vs Gasquet so I can unload on the Murray/Berdych match as well. The line will be too crazy if he plays against Gasquet. Against Berdych though it shouldnt be too hefty.
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  18. 03-28-13 05:13 PM #18
    Sport_Fish
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagicDiceFlow View Post
    Cilic down......Murray easily in straight sets...2 more matches to go for the title.

    Hopefully Berdych wins today vs Gasquet so I can unload on the Murray/Berdych match as well. The line will be too crazy if he plays against Gasquet. Against Berdych though it shouldnt be too hefty.
    Wouldn't u rather just unload on Murray to win outright now? I think ud get a better price this way rather than do a parlay and bet him vs Berdych then Ferrer. And u also run the risk if Gasquet advances - u probably get an un-bettable price, and also a bad price on the finals, esp if Haas advances.
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  19. 03-28-13 05:40 PM #19
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sport_Fish View Post
    Wouldn't u rather just unload on Murray to win outright now? I think ud get a better price this way rather than do a parlay and bet him vs Berdych then Ferrer. And u also run the risk if Gasquet advances - u probably get an un-bettable price, and also a bad price on the finals, esp if Haas advances.
    I took the Murray to win Miami at -108 from the other day. I'm gonna also lay some units on the match if he plays Berdych. May sprinkle some on the games spread as well depending on the line.
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  20. 03-28-13 07:36 PM #20
    Scottish
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    Gasquet beat Berdych, nice result for anyone who took Murray.
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  21. 03-28-13 07:46 PM #21
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by Scottish View Post
    Gasquet beat Berdych, nice result for anyone who took Murray.
    Yep, that result just helped out bigtime.
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  22. 03-30-13 01:51 AM #22
    CaptainOmar111
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    Good luck man , last step tomorrow
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  23. 03-30-13 01:57 AM #23
    face
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    diceflow is right a lot. one more to go
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  24. 03-30-13 02:34 AM #24
    lucasdawg
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    is this a jinx thread? jokes haha goodluck ferrer might take a set in my prediction hopefully you take it in the end tho
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  25. 03-30-13 02:42 AM #25
    MagicDiceFlow
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    We only got Ferrer remaining tomorrow fellas. Murray's playing well. He shouldnt have many problems tomorrow vs Ferrer.

    Good luck guys
    Last edited by MagicDiceFlow; 03-30-13 at 02:46 AM.
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  26. 03-30-13 02:46 AM #26
    CaptainOmar111
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    I think Ferrer on hard court not that good to beat Murray !!!
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  27. 03-30-13 02:49 AM #27
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by CaptainOmar111 View Post
    I think Ferrer on hard court not that good to beat Murray !!!
    Ferrer's a very tough competitor but he's got to work too hard to win points against Murray on these hardcourts. Perhaps on clay Ferrer has a much better chance but this is Murray's stomping grounds. He lives only minutes away from these courts.
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  28. 03-30-13 03:47 AM #28
    Sport_Fish
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    Murray at -350 right now. Love Ferrer but man this price is off IMO...should be a sick parlay option.

    Just can't see Ferrer winning this one.
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  29. 03-30-13 08:09 AM #29
    secret007
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    -350 is a terrible bet. You either go Murray 2-0 or Ferrer +1.5 set. As much as I like Ferrer's determination, he is still few classes below the top 4.. Murray 2-0 if I have to bet.
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  30. 03-30-13 08:15 AM #30
    Hardcoar
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    I think Ferrer might take this, but his odds will definitely rise. Murray backers best hurry...
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  31. 03-31-13 04:04 AM #31
    suicidekings
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagicDiceFlow View Post
    Ferrer's a very tough competitor but he's got to work too hard to win points against Murray on these hardcourts. Perhaps on clay Ferrer has a much better chance but this is Murray's stomping grounds. He lives only minutes away from these courts.
    You had it 100% right from the start. Even now at -315, the value still lies with Murray as a Murray-Ferrer final is a fairly predictable outcome. Pretty much an automatic finish for Murray, barring an extremely unlucky day.
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  32. 03-31-13 05:37 AM #32
    Hardcoar
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    Odds to drift to @ 4.5 (+350 for you crazy Americans) before closing?
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  33. 03-31-13 09:39 AM #33
    secret007
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    I am surprises to find out that Ferres has 5-6 lifetime record against Murray eventhouys gh 4 of those wins come in clay court. Ferrer has always played Murray tight even in hard court based on the past matched. Tempted to take over 22 here.. any opinion?
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  34. 03-31-13 09:43 AM #34
    tevari
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    Ferrer really didn't beat Haas - Haas beat himself. I wasn't at all impressed with Ferrer this tournament. His shots lack pace, or meaning. This championship is on Murray's racquet. If he wants it and comes out of the gate fast, I think he rolls rather comfortably here.
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  35. 03-31-13 09:51 AM #35
    aman86
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    easy winner here in the final
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