From Monday to Thursday there are always many matches, many of them with close lines between the players, so i feel those are the best days, although a bit risky qualification matches... I myself prefer to pick who wins a match instead of the overs but been thinking about trying the overs for a change as well, so ocasionally it may pop up the sugestion.
Anyway, here are the plays i am thinking about for this monday and the reason behind it, please feel free to disagree also:
Monday. 25/02/2013:
Dubai ATP - David Goffin over Roberto Bautista Agut +120
Goffin on a very cold streak, the opposite of what i want for me here but i think it's about time he starts winning matches again. He is having many problems with his serve as well.
On the other side, and although the Spaniard recently won their meeting, he played really poorly in France, losing first to Marc Gicquel, then winning a 3 setter vs Krajinovic and finally being easially dispatched by Simon 6-3 6-1 i watched him against both Krajinovic and Simon and it was 1 UE after another.
Dubai ATP - Somdev Devvarman over Igor Kunitsyn -110
Although the H2H favors Kunitsyn 3-0 those matches were a long time ago. This days seems to me that the Indian is playing much better tennis and facing better opposition than Kunitsyn.
Devvarman lately has upset players like Phau, Berrer and Paire plus took sets off Janowicz and Melzer.
On the other side, Kunitsyn is being the opposit losing to 2 guys outside the top 300 in Romain Jouan and Mathieu Rodrigues ( Although Frenchies playing in France ). Howver he played already 2 qualification rounds in Dubai and won the first against Berrer in straight sets and saw Sergeyev retire after leading the decider by 4-0. Especially the win against Berrer showed good indications.
ATP Delray Beach - Evgeny Donskoy over Steve Darcis -110
Although the line suffered a little movement towards Darcis, i feel like Donskoy has a better chance of winning this 1.
Donskoy has way better hard court results than Darcis plus he recently upset Youzhny at the AO and gave a good fight vs Haas in the last match he played. On the down side he had a bad loss vs Pospisil 7-5 6-1 2 weeks ago.
Darcis is not the best Hardcourt player, vulnerable on serve. Even in the last match he played on Indoor hard he lost to Gicquel on the SF in a match i backed him and watched and he looked completely desinterested. Doesn't have a good win in hard courts for a while now.
ATP Dubai - Parlay: Lukas Rosol over Matteo Viola + Daniel Brands over Florent Serra -104
Going with two big servers, Brands on good form and Rosol vs a player ( Viola ) with no really weapons to hit winners nor a good serve seems the right choice for a parlay option.
ATP Delray Beach - Malisse over Falla -110
Tough one to call but thinking that Malisse cares about this tournament as he already played 3 finals here, although few years back. Also thinking that since he retired vs Young if he is not feeling well he might retire here too and worst case scenario bet would be void...
As a backup match i have Daniel Munoz de La Nava over Gastao Elias.
Waiting for the odds on that match but should be arround -120 for the spaniard... He is having a few good results and i love to fade Portuguese players. Faded Elias today but he won in 3 sets against Sweeting, so would be another try for me. |
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Originally Posted by lucasdawg
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