Malisse!! so how much you up now?
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02-25-13 03:24 PM #36
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02-25-13 03:27 PM #37
Overall i profit 100 euros today.
Originally Posted by king_danilo92
For the streak @ 2nd day i will be using the money i risked on Donskoy plus the profit of that game. Meaning 41$
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02-25-13 03:36 PM #38
There are a few games for tomorrow that the spread might pay off.
Waiting for my bookie to give spreads in the Del Potro, Tsonga, Djokovic, Nalbandian and Ferrer matches... All of their opponents aren't exactly horrible...
Apart from those already thinking about 3 plays as ML options. Will also see about a good parlay of 2 matches.
@King you went big ?Last edited by RapaQues; 02-25-13 at 04:33 PM.
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02-25-13 04:33 PM #39
Made a mistake there... Ferrers match that i meant and not Almagro. Will edit the post. Originally Posted by RapaQues
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02-25-13 05:21 PM #40
djokovic -4500, tsonga -570, delpo -600, ferrer -1700
and wowww isner is only at -200 against jesse levine!
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02-25-13 05:35 PM #41
Yeah, noticed that one on Isner. Line a bit high but he not exactly playing well... Might consider parlaying him with another similar line though. Originally Posted by king_danilo92
Ferrer plays Ramos, Spaniard vs Spaniard, waiting for the spread on my bookie.
Djokovic plays Troicki, Serbian vs Serbian, waiting for the spread on my bookie. Djokovic may start slow and hopefully Troicki serves well...
Tsonga plays Llodra, Frenchie vs Frenchie, waiting for the spread on my bookie. Llodra with his serve on and although he doesn't play as well outide france and Indoors could make it a tough match for Tsonga who isn't a great returner.
Del Potro plays Baghdatis, Bagh is playing well plus again, JMDP isn't exactly a great returner so maybe he wont get many chances to break Bagh... Again, waiting for the spread on my bookie.
I think spreads will interest me more than a ML pick for tomorrow. Will see.
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02-25-13 11:06 PM #42
Picks for day 2 in a few moments.
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02-26-13 12:10 AM #43
Tuesday 26/02/2013:
#1 Acapulco ATP - Paolo Lorenzi over Benoit Paire +100
I really hate Lorenzi BUT it is clay. Lorenzi will do is usual pushing game but in this match i think Paire will allow Lorenzis pushing game to be sucessfull, giving the Italian the UE's he looks for when he enters a tennis court. Can also see Paire Double Faulting alot.
Like i said it is clay. Lorenzi is a clay courter. Paire doesn't play a match on clay since July. Lorenzi already played alot of games on clay this year.
Paire comes from a bad loss to Devvarman in his home country and that was after a retirement against Baghdatis...
Paire even lost to Lorenzi a few months ago in HC or Indoors... In straight sets.
#2 - Acapulco ATP - Wayne Odesnik over Lukasz Kubot +110
Many things i said about Paire are also present in this match for Kubot.
Kubot also doesn't play on clay since July. Odesnik is also a clay courter that already played many matches on clay this year, including 2 qualifying matches in Mexico with the latest win coming against a not very bad clay courter in Javier Marti.
Kubot is in a bad form recently, latest example is loss to Russell in straight sets. He did beat Harrison before that though.
#3 Delray Beach ATP - Marinko Matosevic over Go Soeda +100
Marinko Matosevic retired last match against Nishikori. However, he was serving well all tournament and he recently defeated this opponent in straight sets.
Also, like with my Malisse prediction, i feel that if Matosevic isn't feeling well and he is losing he will retire and my bookie will void the bet.
#4 Delray Beach ATP - Matthew Ebden over Jack Sock -115
Just one view on this one, Ebden is a more solid player. Conditions will be most likely be Windy, so i can see Jack Sock struggling with his serve and making even more UE's than normal when going for his shots close to the lines.
Ebden Also leads H2H 2-0 both matches he lost the 1st set to still make a comeback.
#5 Parlay: John Isner over Jesse Levine + Gianluca Naso over James Ward -105
I think Isner will be too much for Levine. Isner is here defending points from his SF last year. And Naso i feel it will be even easier than Isner against a player ( Ward ) that doesn't play clay often, last match on May and when he does he has not much sucess. Naso on the other hand is a decent clay courter. Capable of beating any clay courter ranked 100-200 let alone a player like Ward.
I have a feeling this picks won't be as sucessfull as yesterday that got a 5-1 in the 6 picks. Not only too many +100 picks today but also players a little more difficult to predict.
The play i am thinking it has the better chances at the moment is the parlay, but i can be wrong.
What play would you go with from these 5 ?
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02-26-13 12:10 AM #44
In short:
#1 Acapulco ATP - Paolo Lorenzi over Benoit Paire +100
#2 - Acapulco ATP - Wayne Odesnik over Lukasz Kubot +110
#3 Delray Beach ATP - Marinko Matosevic over Go Soeda +100
#4 Delray Beach ATP - Matthew Ebden over Jack Sock -115
#5 Parlay: John Isner over Jesse Levine + Gianluca Naso over James Ward -105
1,2,3,4 or 5 ?
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02-26-13 12:20 AM #45
dude i really like the over 22.5 Sock vs. Ebden. its at -120 right now.
both matches these guys played against each other have gone to 3 sets. id take my chances with that, both evenly matched players.
and also love isner, gotta take your chance when hes only -210
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02-26-13 12:30 AM #46
My thing with the overs is that instead of having to cheer for one player to win i have to cheer for both lol. Originally Posted by king_danilo92
I was thinking of picking 1 or 2 spreads of the big favorites today. Especially the ones where its a Serbian vs Serbian, Spanish vs Spanish, Frenchie vs Frenchie. All of those big favs face good opposition. But the lines are very low. Best one i think its Llodras line +4.5 at only -128. Others are like -138 and on clay ( Ferrer vs Ramos for example ) my bookie has not offered spread options yet.
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02-26-13 12:46 AM #47
i see i see, how much are u wagering on each bet?
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02-26-13 01:00 AM #48
Today is the 2nd pick so i will be wagering 20$ that i initially risked from play #1 plus the profit of that play. Meaning a total of 41$. Originally Posted by king_danilo92
If i happen to win pick #2, wich i am still considering and accepting suggestions on i will then place the ammount risked plus profits onto the pick #3 of wednesday. In case pick #2 hits, of course.
I am also waiting for a final leg of a parlay of 5 matches from the Sidney Challenger odds of +806.5. Was odds of +1213 but one loser that was getting spanked retired... Final leg is being played now.
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02-26-13 02:36 AM #49
I'm off but please let me know opinions.
I will check it back before i make a decision on the play.
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02-26-13 02:45 AM #50
im not positive but option 2 seems good. i dont trust the australians, Soeda and Sock could win.
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02-26-13 06:11 AM #51
Sock will overpower Ebden in 2 easy sets!!!!....and i think Paire will win his match.....anyway hope im wrong and good luck for your challenge!!!
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02-26-13 06:19 AM #52
paire has a high chance unless he doesnt feel like winning and blows it some how which does happen. he started off as the underdog but in my book has dropped to fav ( from $1.98 to $1.78)
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02-26-13 10:31 AM #53
Thanks guys, any more inputs are welcome
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02-26-13 12:36 PM #54
Personally I'm wary of Paire. Clearly 'Datiiiiiis @ 5.7 was one of the plays of the day. It's just a shame he didn't happen to win in the end.
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02-26-13 12:46 PM #55
Ok, made a decision.
Will go with the parlay.
However Naso match no longer available in my bookie for some reason.
So, will go with the guys that i can watch the matches and that have big serves and points to defend in Delray Beach.
John Isner + Kevin Anderson ( Replacement of Naso ).
Isner made the SF last year and lost to Anderson. Anderson won the tournament.
Play for day 2: John Isner over Jesse Levine + Kevin Anderson over Tim Smiczek total odds -110.
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02-26-13 04:46 PM #56
Kevin Anderson
Come on now Big John
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02-26-13 05:53 PM #57
Anderson very risky, but pulled through without too much trouble in the end.
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02-26-13 05:57 PM #58
Would be risky if the opponent wasn't Tim Smyczek lol
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02-26-13 06:00 PM #59
Depending on who it might be riskier. If you aim to make safe bets that was an incredibly bad one in my belief.
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02-26-13 06:06 PM #60
I respect your opinion but i have this angles: Originally Posted by Hardcoar
Anderson would not want to lose after winning the tournament last year.
Anderson if anything got better phisically after the surgery.
Smyczek is bad and in awful form. I backed him recently in a match he should win and he lost in straights and playing bad all match.
Its not bad when its a win in straights and without even a TB.
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02-26-13 06:14 PM #61
I'm sorry I should've told you my angle already. I'm merely being honest. I respect your opinion also, rest assured! : )
Anderson hasn't played for so long, we have no idea how his injury/surgery will affect him (at least I didn't) or in what form he'll be game-wise.
Smyczek is relatively "bad" but not in poor form most recently looking at results. National: Used to the court, well-rested without travel, and home favorite.
We have no idea how recently Anderson has been travelling a great distance, and how it will affect him.
Rough conditions with rain and strong winds.
That was basically my reasoning, but I agree to a great extent with your first point.
Also, the outcome of a specific bet tells you little as to whether it was a good bet or not. In particular – as I understand it – you're not only looking for good bets, but also safe ones.
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02-26-13 06:47 PM #62
Agreed but if i look for odds of at least -120 it will allways have a bit of risk. Originally Posted by Hardcoar
For example i tought of leaning Ebden, Matosevic and Odesnik, all were risky and Odesnik had the better odds... Matosevic would be a loss ( he choked bad ) and Odesnik won in straights. Ebden was owned and i had more confidence in him than in Matosevic who at least gave a good fight and could have won or could have allowed me to hedge.
If i am dued to have sucess with this thing in the end of the day i will need to risk here and there and have a bit of luck along the way.
I won't find a single bet or a parlay of two matches with odds of -120 or better that offer no risk along the way... Even a line of -500 can be a risk.
And i think Isner will be harder than Anderson was...
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02-26-13 10:26 PM #63
Originally Posted by RapaQues
#1 Paolo Lorenzi 4-6 6-3 6-4 Benoit Paire = WIN
#2 Wayne Odesnik 6-3 6-4 Lukasz Kubot = WIN
#3 Marinko Matosevic 6-2 4-6 6-7 Go Soeda = LOSS
#4 Matthew Ebden 3-6 3-6 Jack Sock = LOSS
#5 John Isner 7-6 5-7 6-4 Jesse Levine + Gianluca Naso 6-4 6-7 6-3 James Ward = WIN
However, since my bookie removed the Gianluca Naso match my play of the day ended up being:
John Isner 7-6 5-7 6-4Jesse Levine+ Kevin Anderson 6-3 6-4Tim Smyczek-110= WIN
Sorry if anyone tailed the plays that lost. Ebden was just a bad pick and Matosevic lost a game he had all chances to win.
Streak dream lives to fight another day.
John Isner: Big boy, i don't know when it will be but i will be fading you really soon. That was miserable.
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02-26-13 10:29 PM #64
Will check matches for tomorrow soon.
When all set will create a new thread for day 3 with the picks.
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02-26-13 10:33 PM #65
awesome job so far!! keep it up dont lose focus
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02-27-13 06:48 AM #66
At least Isner won.
Was anyone able to catch the match? How bad was it? lol...
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02-27-13 06:54 AM #67
Isner was pretty bad. Originally Posted by Hardcoar
In at least 4 service games he faced BP. Was lucky with 3-4 let calls. Many service games held to 30. Aces saved him. Too many UE's. Bad foot work all match. Bad approaches all match.
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