1. 02-22-13 08:13 PM #1
    orhane
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    Tennis Value Betting - ATP

    Hi everyone,

    I like to share my picks with the forum from now on.
    I will have a starting bank of 1000 units and will use Kelly Criterion to calculate my units to bet. Maximum bet size will be 100 units. If the bank doubles up, I will recalculate my units.
    Selections will depend on the value I find. Sometimes there will be a lot of selections, somedays nothing at all.

    Good luck to everyone and I hope you will share your ideas with me.
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  2. 02-22-13 10:08 PM #2
    orhane
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    and i decided to share other picks as well, but they will get an extra side bank.
    so it will be 2 banks:
    1. Tennis ATP
    2. Rest
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  3. 02-23-13 08:33 AM #3
    Hardcoar
    Curious Nick and Tenacious Kokk
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    Looking forward to it.
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  4. 02-23-13 08:45 AM #4
    orhane
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    1st Bet:

    11,33 Units on Almagro to win vs Wawrinka @1,73
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  5. 02-23-13 08:47 AM #5
    orhane
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    2nd Bet:
    13,69 Units on Istomin to win vs Lopez @1.65
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  6. 02-23-13 12:55 PM #6
    Hardcoar
    Curious Nick and Tenacious Kokk
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    Value in Almagro odds? Doubtedly...
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  7. 02-23-13 01:47 PM #7
    orhane
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    I calculated 7% value. My magic number is 5%.
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  8. 02-23-13 04:37 PM #8
    Hardcoar
    Curious Nick and Tenacious Kokk
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    Just out of curiosity, how do you calculate value? Simply set the odds where you think they should be and compare?

    I personally found about @ 1.7 on Nico pretty fair, so not much value (in my personal opinion).
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  9. 02-23-13 08:51 PM #9
    orhane
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    2 losses to start with.
    I calculate recent form (last 6 months). And general record on surface.
    In last step H2H record if available.
    After that i calculate my own probabilities and compare them with the odds.
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  10. 03-02-13 06:45 AM #10
    Hardcoar
    Curious Nick and Tenacious Kokk
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    Not giving up already, I hope!
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