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I Spy 12.30.12
As always, tread lightly with the beginning of the season. We're still doing a lot of guesswork.
[WTA Brisbane] Lisicki +155
Nothing motivates more than the will to prove that your rise was the truth and your fall was a fluke. Such is the case with Boom Boom here. Lisicki was the sheik pick to continue her meteoric rise in 2012, but she flopped quite large in part due to injury, but I think more so do to a lack of consistency perhaps with the pressure of expectation on her for the 1st time. An off-season helps the health part of the equation. The mental aspect is all on the player, but I think Lisicki shows up motivated to prove she belongs inside the Top 20. Her serve was a massive part of her rise and a massive part of her demise. That is where it should start for her this year. Serve well and she can compete with just about anyone on this level. Safarova quietly moved into the Top 20 last year She's not flashy, but she was fairly consistent. She has played well at this tournament mostly, but did lose her opener in 2012. Based on last year, this price would be accurate - but I think the overall skill level is a wash at worst if both are healthy .. and you can definitely make the case that Lisicki has the better tools of the two. Plus money makes the juice worth the squeeze with Boom Boom.
[ATP Brisbane] Nieminen -110
Both Nieminen & Benneteau are on the "other" side of 30 @ 31 years old each. Benneteau's body seemed to break down as the season wore on in 2012. He had a very solid season. Nieminen is one of my favorite ATP guys because he provides great information on his health and condition via his blog. He has once again talked of having one of his best preps to start a season. This was the same talk he had last year and it ended with a title in Sydney - a win in the final against Benneteau. Nieminen is also 5-0 lifetime against Benneteau, showing that something in his game does not jive well with the Frenchman. Also have to question Benneteau's readiness. He played in the Open de Caen, a tournament in France that ended in early December. He was walloped by a Challenger level guy, Nicolas Renavand, in straight sets and very convincingly 6-3, 6-0. Certainly several weeks of rest will have helped,but I'm looking for a quicker start from the better prepared player.
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