Day 3 Paris
Will keep all of my thoughts in one thread from now on to avoid clutter.
Tournament Record
Day 1: 7-3, +5.60 units
Day 2: 4-5-2. -1.65 units
Spotlight Matches
Juan Martin Del Potro vs. Alejandro Falla
I cashed on Falla on Day 1 against a hobbled Florian Mayer but the mountain gets steeper here as the Colombian draw Del Po in round 2. There have been few players hotter on tour right now than Del Potro and he has amassed an amazing 17-1 indoor record with his only loss coming all the way back in the final in Rotterdam to Federer. Falla was a casualty early last week against the Argentine and there is really no reason he shouldn’t suffer a similar fate. EP mentioned in his thread that Del Po could be a dark horse to win his 4th consecutive indoor title (Marseille, Vienna and Basel) and I have to agree with him. I am going to play the under 19.5 just give me that extra cushion in case Falla competes. I have it Del 6-3 6-3 and into the 3rd round.
Play: Del Potro/Falla Under 19.5 1x
Novak Djokovic vs. Sam Querrey
Armed with the info that Djokovic is fighting a bit of a flu bug we act accordingly in this 2nd round clash with Querrey. If Djokovic is healthy enough to compete he should handle Querrey easily if he retires I will get my money back. This is why I am playing another Under in this spot. Djokovic is a fighter and will compete if he is sick or not. Querrey has been playing very well and I am impressed that he has been able to get his ranking above 25 again. He will certainly be in the running for comeback player of the year. He absolutely destroyed Verdasco forcing the Spaniard to retire, but Nole even at 60% is a different beast. Play the under this will at worse push if Djokovic is even remotely healthy. If not, hope for a retirement.
Play: Djokovic/Querrey Under 20 -120 1x
Michael Llodra vs. John Isner
Fans of old school tennis will enjoy this matchup, the serve volley style of the Frenchmen Llodra against the booming serve of the American John Isner. It is not quite Rafter-Goran but it will have to do in 2012. Llodra was a play of mine against Big Lips, but the Czech pulled out with an injury and Llodra beat the Spaniard Traver in straight sets. Izzy has been struggling to go deep in these late season indoor events but all of his matches have gone over the total. Why expect anything different here? H2H these two are 1-1 with Llodra winning two years ago at this very event. Isner has improved vastly since then and will learn from that defeat. I think the winner of this match will win 2 tiebreaks or this will go 3 sets. In any event, play the over.
Play: Llodra/Isner Over 25 -113 1x
Milos Raonic vs. Jeremy Chardy
Chardy finally got a W yesterday with a victory over Garcia Lopez and it had to feel good for a guy that had previously had 1 victory since the U.S. Open. He draws another big server in Raonic and he has used that big weapon to go 38-11 on hard courts this season including winning an indoor title in San Jose and a final in Memphis. Obviously those were at the beginning of the year and he has been struggling since losing in the championship to Kei Nishikori. If you look at his losses during the late indoor season you can’t blame him. Losing to Muller on an indoor court is no shame; his tricky lefty serve can give anyone problems. Then he lost to Baggy in a tight 3 set match that included all tiebreaks. Chardy is a worse opponent than those guys. This is a really short line at 2.5 and the books are saying can Raonic break the above average Chardy serve? I say yes and the Canadian will win 6-4 7-6
Play: Milos Raonic -2.5 -125 1x
Quick Hitters
Gasquet -3 -105 1x
This was always been historically a good matchup for the Frenchmen posting a 3-0 H2H against the big serving South African. SF in Basel last week losing to the eventual champion no reason he can’t cover a small number against a guy with a pedestrian 6-5 indoor record.
Monaco/Dimitrov over 23 -105 1x
Books are itching that you play Monaco and the under in this match. These guys just played outdoors in Tokyo and Monaco rolled over the Bulgarian. Why wouldn’t you play the -127 here? The reason is Monaco has been dominated by guys he should beat at this point in his career in Valencia (Hewitt) and Verdasco (Shanghai). I may be overthinking this but I think the winner of this clash does it in 3 sets.
Hanescu +525 1x
Just a hunch here, but Simon hasn’t made it past the 2nd round since making the final in Bangkok. Hanescu hasn’t had a lot of hard court experience but he has played outstanding on the challenger tour on dirt. Certainly worth a flyer imo.
Murray -5.5 -105 1x
I will fade PHM until this guy loses. This has 6-2, 6-2 written all over it
Parlay
Almagro/Raonic/Ferrer -105 1x
Just in case Raonic wins in 2 breakers I can get some of my money back. Nico and Ferrer who hold a combined 6-0 record against their inferior compatriots should progress with ease
Actually thought it would be alot worse today. Got unlucky in the Djokovic match and it would be been nice if Izzy could have pulled out that tiebreak to cash the over but no biggie.
Tournament Record
Day 1: 7-3, +5.60 units
Day 2: 4-5-2. -1.65 units
Day 3: 3-6, -3.48 units
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