1. 10-09-12 08:54 PM #1
    EaglesPhan36
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    TI Consensus Dog Fades

    Some of you know my theory on these, some don't. T-I, it's another tip site (tennisinsight). A lot of us have noticed over the course of time that when their tipsters are a strong majority on a plus money (Dog) play - the favorite seems to win quite a bit.

    Have been wanting to track this for quite some time and with the season winding down and some spare time, going to try and do that here. I will list any play that fits the criteria and track the W-L rate.

    #1: WTA OSAKA: DELLACQUA -165
    15/20 tips are on Chang
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  2. 10-09-12 10:16 PM #2
    EaglesPhan36
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    #2: ATP SHANGHAI: SIMON -135
    18/25 tips on Dolgopolov
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  3. 10-09-12 11:19 PM #3
    Sport_Fish
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    What do u pay for that website access?
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  4. 10-09-12 11:40 PM #4
    bettordays
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    i dont think you have to pay any money.
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  5. 10-09-12 11:44 PM #5
    Sport_Fish
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    Well i cant seem to see certain areas of the site...says u need to be subscribed and they have payment methods =/
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  6. 10-10-12 02:37 AM #6
    freshguy222
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    they do have a premium area, but to see the TI picks, just go to the preview site of the particlar tournament
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  7. 10-10-12 06:06 AM #7
    EaglesPhan36
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    Yeah you don't have to pay to see stats and how many tips are on each player. I think the pay part you get access to all the comments made by the tipsters and other stuff. Ask Shari, believe she is a member there and some others on here too can probably tell you.

    So far, they have reversed the curse in the small sample size. Will keep tracking. This is only applying to moderate dogs by the way. So anything over +200 won't be tracked here.
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  8. 10-10-12 06:17 PM #8
    EaglesPhan36
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    #3 WTA OSAKA: WATSON -140
    13/18 tips on Medina-Garrigues

    #4: ATP SHANGHAI: CILIC -130
    20/30 tips on Verdasco

    #5: ATP SHANGHAI: ISNER -165
    14/20 tips on Stepanek

    Those look like the only ones I see right now. I will look at the WTA Linz ones later tonight and come back and update the #s on the tips before the Watson-Garrigues match starts around 11:15pm ET scheduled start time.
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  9. 10-10-12 07:45 PM #9
    Fidel
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    If you think about it, you might actually be reversing the tipster curse by posting this thread. Haha, great idea though. Im excited to see how this plays out !
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  10. 10-10-12 08:06 PM #10
    EaglesPhan36
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    Could be, we shall see. I won't really read much into the results until the end of the month when this has had a chance to run for several tournaments. Could run extremely hot and cold. And I could be totally off on their curse, just seemed to me that more often than not the consensus dogs were losing when they tipped them. I do think one of those dogs listed probably will cash today.
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  11. 10-10-12 09:36 PM #11
    zoo youk
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    EP did u get a Scherzer K prop? hes racked up five already in 3 innings. im pissed none of my books had it
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  12. 10-10-12 10:18 PM #12
    beefcake
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  13. 10-11-12 08:36 AM #13
    EaglesPhan36
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    #3 WTA OSAKA: WATSON -140
    13/18 tips on Medina-Garrigues

    #4: ATP SHANGHAI: CILIC -130
    20/30 tips on Verdasco

    #5: ATP SHANGHAI: ISNER -165
    14/20 tips on Stepanek

    Those look like the only ones I see right now. I will look at the WTA Linz ones later tonight and come back and update the #s on the tips before the Watson-Garrigues match starts around 11:15pm ET scheduled start time.
    2-1 today with Isner losing. No WTA Linz picks fit the criteria.
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  14. 10-12-12 04:17 PM #14
    EaglesPhan36
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    Will track more tonight, but Federer looking like a play on this criteria. Murray tips 16/21 so far.
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  15. 10-12-12 09:26 PM #15
    EaglesPhan36
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    27/38 on Murray, so mark it down. It's getting close to a pick 'em after Murray opened in plus territory.

    #6: ATP SHANGHAI: FEDERER -125
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  16. 10-12-12 09:30 PM #16
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Fed is gonna spray some revenge juice on Murray. Also, there's talks that Murray has a virus and might not be at 100%.

    I'm on Fed all day.
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  17. 10-12-12 09:38 PM #17
    EaglesPhan36
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    Yeah seen the stories on the virus. Not sure how much it is going to effect him. Sounds like long rallies tire him some. Never want to bank on sickness being a key factor, but certainly doesn't hurt. Federer will need to improve his play though I think over the last two rounds. He hasn't been too sharp, but good enough.
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  18. 10-12-12 09:44 PM #18
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Have you heard anything about possibly the roof being closed? If so, that's gonna be a significant advantage for Federer.
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  19. 10-12-12 09:51 PM #19
    EaglesPhan36
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    Not sure why it would be. Weather forecast looks about perfect.
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  20. 10-12-12 09:57 PM #20
    MagicDiceFlow
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    How would you say the surface has been past few days? It appears like its a tadbit faster.
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  21. 10-12-12 10:02 PM #21
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagicDiceFlow View Post
    Fed is gonna spray some revenge juice on Murray. Also, there's talks that Murray has a virus and might not be at 100%.

    I'm on Fed all day.
    he looked pale and a bit lathargic against Stepanek. I watched the match this morning. Still had enough to come back. Fed looked very good vs Cilic.
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  22. 10-12-12 10:07 PM #22
    EaglesPhan36
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    I think I read something prior to the tournament about how they made the surface quicker than it was in the past. I don't think it is super quick, but sounds like maybe it plays faster than it did last year?
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  23. 10-12-12 10:10 PM #23
    MagicDiceFlow
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    It looks a bit faster to me. Serves are looking crisper for everyone across the board vs Beijing.
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  24. 10-12-12 10:57 PM #24
    EaglesPhan36
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    Based on court speed ratings I saw, Beijing is definitely slower than Shanghai.
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  25. 10-13-12 12:47 AM #25
    Luca Fury
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    Quote Originally Posted by MagicDiceFlow View Post
    Fed is gonna spray some revenge juice on Murray. Also, there's talks that Murray has a virus and might not be at 100%.

    I'm on Fed all day.
    I'm with you on this one! Fed has more motivation due to revenge and has been playing better lately. Murray was HORRIBLE vs Stepanek last night, and even went back to his hissy fit mode that we had all hoped would be gone after he got the big wins recently. Murray seemed to not care too much last night and looked very drained physically and emotionally, while Federer cruised past Cilic.

    Fed + revenge factor looks good here. -1.5 games at even money seems like a nice bet.
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  26. 10-13-12 01:23 AM #26
    Fidel
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luca Fury View Post
    I'm with you on this one! Fed has more motivation due to revenge and has been playing better lately. Murray was HORRIBLE vs Stepanek last night, and even went back to his hissy fit mode that we had all hoped would be gone after he got the big wins recently. Murray seemed to not care too much last night and looked very drained physically and emotionally, while Federer cruised past Cilic.

    Fed + revenge factor looks good here. -1.5 games at even money seems like a nice bet.


    "Revenge factor" Hows that been working out for you? Murray has looked good this whole tournament, Stepanek just played his ass off last night untill he finally tired out to Murrays endurance.

    Also, your overconfidence and past posts are perfect grounds for being fade material. Im siding with the tipsters on this one.
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  27. 10-13-12 01:27 AM #27
    matt1216
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    I got this gut feeling Fed wins in straight sets
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  28. 10-13-12 01:37 AM #28
    Fidel
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    Quote Originally Posted by matt1216 View Post
    I got this gut feeling Fed wins in straight sets
    Hows that been working out for you lately?
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  29. 10-13-12 01:39 AM #29
    MagicDiceFlow
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    Quote Originally Posted by EaglesPhan36 View Post
    Not sure why it would be. Weather forecast looks about perfect.
    Are the night matches played under the roof at Shanghai? I heard there might be a slim possibility they'll play indoors or under the roof since this match doesnt start until 8pm Shanghai time.
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  30. 10-13-12 02:05 AM #30
    Luca Fury
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel View Post
    "Revenge factor" Hows that been working out for you? Murray has looked good this whole tournament, Stepanek just played his ass off last night untill he finally tired out to Murrays endurance.

    Also, your overconfidence and past posts are perfect grounds for being fade material. Im siding with the tipsters on this one.
    Quote Originally Posted by matt1216 View Post
    I got this gut feeling Fed wins in straight sets
    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel View Post
    Hows that been working out for you lately?
    LOL at this troll! Yeah, the fact that I'm a profitbal player on MMA, Tennis, MLB, NCAAF and NFL make me "fade material." OK...

    BTW, Murray played horribly last night. If you think that was competitive solely because Stepanek played well, you're retarded. You think UNFORCED ERRORS are caused by your opponent? Why do you think they are called UNFORCED errors? How about Murray's 50% first serve rate in the first set, and the his dreadful 23% rate in the second? And the multiple double faults by Murray, those were caused by Stepanek "playing his ass off too" too? LOL, get the hell out of here.

    And the revenge factor is huge in sports betting. If you don't think motivation/desire is important when capping matches, again, you're dumb.
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  31. 10-13-12 02:09 AM #31
    Luca Fury
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    Since you're supposedly fading us here, how about you post a screengrab of your Murray ticket BEFORE the match starts, to prove you're somethign other than just a scumf*ck of a troll?
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  32. 10-13-12 02:36 AM #32
    Luca Fury
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    And at the first sign of resistance, the troll has retreated. Figures.
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  33. 10-13-12 02:37 AM #33
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fidel View Post
    Hows that been working out for you lately?
    did well on spotting Baggy over Raonic and took Sepanek to win a set off Murray. I Picked Baghdatis over Raonic because they played a super tight 3 sets a couple months back.... and I took Stepanek for 1 set, because hes in decent form and Murray has played a ton of tennis lately. I dont just randomly throw money away. I really think Fed will close this in 2 sets and Under 23.5 games is the play
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  34. 10-13-12 02:39 AM #34
    matt1216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Luca Fury View Post
    LOL at this troll! Yeah, the fact that I'm a profitbal player on MMA, Tennis, MLB, NCAAF and NFL make me "fade material." OK...

    BTW, Murray played horribly last night. If you think that was competitive solely because Stepanek played well, you're retarded. You think UNFORCED ERRORS are caused by your opponent? Why do you think they are called UNFORCED errors? How about Murray's 50% first serve rate in the first set, and the his dreadful 23% rate in the second? And the multiple double faults by Murray, those were caused by Stepanek "playing his ass off too" too? LOL, get the hell out of here.

    And the revenge factor is huge in sports betting. If you don't think motivation/desire is important when capping matches, again, you're dumb.
    ya, im not sure why Trolls even bother. Probably lost his Roll already lol
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  35. 10-13-12 02:42 AM #35
    matt1216
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    I really Think Fed is in Decent form here. The only reason why He lost a set to Wawrinka was due to the sudden jump in talent. caught him off gaurd i think.
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