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A -500 tennis play with value.....
Caroline Wozniacki is -500 versus Sorana Cirstea.
Wozniacki has the advantage in just about every department, but on the Grand Slam level has not yet really dominated being 19 or so and I really think this is her year to push into a semis.
I honestly think she'll blast Cirstea off the court, or else I wouldn't even post this. Good luck either way.
GL
I have Wozniacki making the semis, so I believe in this pick - but you couldn't make me pay that price with your money Lou. Matches involving Russians and women should never be played for that price.
Lou you never learn do you?
You don't have to play big favorites to win in tennis betting. Look at LT Profits, he always takes dogs and he's up nicely.
Where is the value in a -500 bet? Are you fukking kidding me!
When the line should actually be -800, there's value.Originally Posted by pavyracer
There is nothing wrong with betting a -500 line. As long as the true line is -600 or better.
Most books limit you to $500 tennis bets. There is no value risking $500 to win $100.
going big on wozniacki
can't see her loosing this one
Pavy,
I've laid -2000 when I thought it should be -4000. Don't shrug away from big MLs when there's value. I don't know if this is one of those cases, but you can't discard these plays blindly.
All I know is one miss on a line like this and your value kills your cash flow for two months. I would use this in a parlay, but not a straight play. It's not like this is Nadal vs. a kid in a wheel chair at -8000 where you could say it's a lock.
When MushyLou sees value I see a disaster waiting to happen. Guy lost all his bankroll on a -900 tennis bet several times.
Hey Lou you put any money on Ivanovic since last year's meltdown? Just curious if she's won you back yet.
Im just trying to encourage him to post his tennis plays again. Its like waiting to see a train wreck and not being dissapointed.
A better approach might be to look at his individual picks, and say why you disagree with an individual play before it goes. Hindsight is 20/20
I've lost an occasional big ML bet, but it never set me back.
Yes, but I'll never look at her the same again.
Have some future action on her though, but more on Jankovic.
A warning to all about Wozniacki. This has been translated from the original Dutch:
Forgive the rough translation. Also I'd like to note that she is absolutely famous for whining about injuries and then still coming out the next day and playing winning tennis. I do favor Wozniacki in spite of this injury news, but not at this price. I'm downgrading this from a play to a lean in my "book."Caroline Wozniacki, tennis player, played in Wednesday to the third round of French Open with a sure victory in two sets against American Craybas, even though she is plagued by two depressed ribs. "I could feel them when I had to serve - but when I just stood and hit, it was actually quite good. So long as I kept the ball in motion, so I felt good running," says the Dane to TV 2 Sport.
She further says that she will rest the remaining of the day and receive treatment for her injury, what extent she still does not quite have the oversight.
"I know it actually not. I take it one day at a time, so I hope that it will be better, when I get some
good treatment," said Wozniacki, who nevertheless felt that she, despite her injury hit the ball well and kept the pressure against Jill Craybas.
I love Cirstea. She's a real cutie but Wozniacki will probably win in straights.
My thoughts exactly.
Caroline Wozniacki is -500 versus Sorana Cirstea is a bad play in my opinion, for these reasons:
1. Wozniacki lost first set to Dushevina, a so-so Russian player in the first round and barely recovers with a 7-5 second set before winning;
2. Cirstea is in good form, beating Cornet easily in the second round and was good before Roland Garros,
3. This is Roland Garros where the likelihood of non clay-court top players (for whom Wozniacki) losing in upsets is the highest among the 4 Slams;
-500 might win but i think it is not value above -300 here, instead i will play Cirstea for a juicy +425
550 @ THEGREEK current
I truly mean this with all due respect, sir, but if you think Caroline Wozniacki should be -300 against Sorana Cirstea then I'm afraid we aren't talking about the same players.
Appreciate the info, but I don't care if she lost a rib, she shouldn't be just -500 against Cirstea. Now if this was semis, OK, Wozniacki is young and has shown some signs of mental collapse, but the pressure isn't on yet and the Great Dane will blast her off the court with precision.
A warning to all about Wozniacki. This has been translated from the original Dutch:
Forgive the rough translation. Also I'd like to note that she is absolutely famous for whining about injuries and then still coming out the next day and playing winning tennis. I do favor Wozniacki in spite of this injury news, but not at this price. I'm downgrading this from a play to a lean in my "book."
I love Wozniacki as a talented young player with potential to be future top 3 or at least top 5. I think she can make it at big time if she improves on here killer instinct, that subtle aspect of a sports champion.
I mention -300 because i think this match might be more closely contested. CrazyLou, would you like to give me -6.5 games?
Those who don't learn from there mistakes are doomed to repeat them. Congrats to those who backed Cirstea.
Omfg...... Hollywood couldnt write a better script than this. If they did, they'd call it Crash II.
Damn Lou jinxed my futures pick to with this one. Ouch.
Wozzi was up 4-0 and serving at 40-15 before totally collapsing, guess she may have been injured as earlier reports indicated.
Congrats.
Injury excuse after saying "it didnt matter if she lost a rib."
This just shows you again ... women's tennis, big favorites, DON'T DO IT. I can see laying the wood on Nadal at the French if you're so inclined, but women's tennis is very very unpredictable especially with a young player like Wozniacki.
Okay, but that doesn't mean the fair value of the line wasn't -800.
-800?
How did you determine this? Please show your steps.
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