[EaglesPhan36]

Even though there are tournaments this week, the excitement level will be minimized so I thought I'd start a little discussion that is always kind of fun to do after we've gotten more than half way through the year. The Big Four: Federer, Djokovic, Nadal & yes, Murray. One is in his twilight closing in on 31. The other three set right in their primes in their mid 20s. So where do they go from here? My thoughts. Add yours.

Federer: I think the 17th Grand Slam title, 7th @ Wimbledon is a huge weight lifted off Fed's back whether he will admit it or not. I think he wanted to prove he could still win at his age against the young bucks. Tying his idol, Sampras along with Brit William Reinshaw, for the most Wimbledon Titles I think was especially special. I think heading into the last few years of his career - who knows how many - he will continue to be a player to the quarterfinal level. I think his record of making Slam QFs is something that he will continue to take pride in and try to defend every Slam. I think that is still a proving point for him every time out. To me, when he stops making quarters, he's going to retire. I think for the remainder of his career, Wimbledon will be a primary focus - #1, his favorite tournament and #2, to try and become the all-time title holder with 8.

Djokovic: He's now a consistent force on all surfaces and I think he will still be the primary favorite at every Grand Slam outside of the French Open as long as he consistently stays at or near the top. Watching Federer win should also inspire Djokovic to try and get back on top of his game. His record this year is stellar, not quite the ridiculousness of 2011, but solid. Still, there is no way you can say he is playing his best tennis as consistently. I think a couple of driving points for him from this point out: Chasing Nadal. He's six Slam titles behind Nadal, but has the all-court game and health at this point to chip into that every year if he can win at least two Slams. Secondly, Chasing the French Open. "The Novak Slam" so to speak. Much like Federer, this is going to be a much talked about non-win until he gets the win @ Roland Garros. And like Roger, he may need someone else to KO Rafa to get the win. Lastly, I think if he needed something to fire him back up - it is seeing the other guys win Championships. Last year, no one could touch him, but now it appears the Big Four are all playing very close to each other.

Nadal: Nadal is the most interesting one to me. Obviously health is going to be the huge issue. The knee tendonits still crops up, although he has done a much better job of not overworking himself. I do think as he begins to advance in age, he will start scaling back even on the clay court tournaments more so to keep himself fresh for the French Open - every year. He is already the greatest Champion @ RG with 7 titles and I think he wants to keep piling them up to make that unreachable, not to mention keeping his impeccable record at the tournament. One loss. I think the interesting thing is to see what his motivation is to chase Federer's Slam record. He's six down now, but will obviously have a window in a couple years/even now where he can try to chase down that mark if he chooses to. I'm just not sure that Rafa really cares about it. I get the feeling that if he won the French Open every year until he retired and nothing else, he'd be content.

Murray: Bridesmaid Syndrome continues for Murray who again has the unfortunate luck of being born during the same period as some of the greatest tennis players this sport will probably ever know. I think a key for Murray is keeping the ideals and preparation that Lendl has instilled with him no matter what happens with that plaer/coach relationship in the future. It's obviously reaped rewards for Murray and Murray would be a fool to get rid of Lendl in my opinion. His consistency is really remarkable. Nine Slam semifinals in the last 13 Slams. He is right there. He's going to need a little luck and his match of a lifetime to probably win one, but you still get the feeling that his time will come. I don't think he will treat any Slam differently until/if he wins one. That is his goal. That is his focus. You're not going to see less or more work for the Australian, French, Wimbledon or US Open from this guy. I certainly think that if he does get one and it's not Wimbledon, that Wimbledon will then become a larger focus for him.

Curious if anyone thinks an outsider can break this stranglehold on Slams that this group has? Tsonga to me would seem the most likely - other than Murray, but he's 27 and his window is evaporating with every Slam that passes. I know a lot have tipped Raonic to be the next big thing, but I haven't seen shit all from him in Best of 5s to show he has the mentality needed to beat the big boys.

[tevari]

great write up. i dont think there will be any shuffling of players coming in and leaving the top 4. tsonga has the physical talents but lacks the mental fortitude to beat these players.

[gregm]

Great stuff Eagles. I am too tired to write much more than about Roger and some contenders. I was really impressed with Murray but I still think there is only the big 3 right now and I would put Ferrer in the big 4 before I would put Andy in there at least for the present ( Ferrer is 47-9 with 4 titles this year is Andy is 32-10 with 1 title all year) but Andy should do better at the US Open and the Olympics and eventually Ferrer will slow down. I really thought he had a great chance to even beat Murray on grass, just gave away some great chances.

Federer- I think with Federer you have to take into account the regression with age but his numbers have been incredibly impressive this year, you have actually have had quite a few slam winners at 30 before and Sampras and Connors won the US open at 31 and Agassi won the Aussie at almost 33 years old but these are pretty rare exceptions. I have nothing but the greatest respect for Federer and his achievements but age is age and I just dont see Djokovic, Murray And Nadal regressing much, but the knee problems with Nadal don't sound good for a guy that young. Federer may be facing age but who knows with a champion like Roger. I just read an interesting quote from Sampras about Roger.

"And Sampras doesn't think this will be Federer's last Wimbledon title.

"I still see Roger contending for majors for many years. He's still eager. He still loves the game," Sampras said. "When I was a little older, I felt more burned out."

Contenders- I know Ferrer is 30 but he seems to be playing some of the greatest tennis of his career this year. For the year so far I would definitely put Ferrer over Delpotro, Tsonga, and Berdych, and even Murray, it will be interesting what happens with Soderling, he is 27 and looks to be losing a whole year of tennis. The problem facing Raonic, DelPotro and Tsonga was summed up by Ljubicic pretty well, they just dont play defense like Nole, Federer, Murray and Nadal do. You have all these big servers and aggressive guys like Raonic who are the next big thing but thats why I love guys like Murray and Ferrer, they can play these rallies. Good quote from Ljubicic

"Ivan Ljubicic tells the New York Times that the reason why the “Big 4″ of Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Andy Murray are dominating is more due to their excellent defense than standout offense. Former top 5 player Ljubicic will retire after next week’s tournament in Monte Carlo.

“The young guys coming up, if they want to be competitive with Djokovic, Nadal and Murray, they cannot defend better than them, it’s not possible,” Ljubicic said. “So they have to attack. I think the tactical game of tennis is going to change, and I think in the next five to 10 years, we’re going to have big guys, probably very aggressive guys.”

Next big things in ATP seems to be really flash in the pans. I have seen Raonic, Tomic, Del Potro mentioned alot of people were really talking about Tsonga and Del Potro this year but Ferrer at 30 has had a much better year than all of them. I sort of like Nishikori but I really dont see much on the horizon to challenge the big 3 outside of Murray . Hopefully Murray continues this run, maybe Del Potro or Tsonga but thats a big maybe.

[gregm]

I take all that back. Two words. Ernests Gulbis. The future is now.

[jsmithj88]

Great stuff Eagles. I am too tired to write much more than about Roger and some contenders. I was really impressed with Murray but I still think there is only the big 3 right now and I would put Ferrer in the big 4 before I would put Andy in there at least for the present ( Ferrer is 47-9 with 4 titles this year is Andy is 32-10 with 1 title all year) but Andy should do better at the US Open and the Olympics and eventually Ferrer will slow down. I really thought he had a great chance to even beat Murray on grass, just gave away some great chances.


Contenders- I know Ferrer is 30 but he seems to be playing some of the greatest tennis of his career this year. For the year so far I would definitely put Ferrer over Delpotro, Tsonga, and Berdych, and even Murray, ...............

ferrer is having a better year than murray in terms of wins and titles, but he is not better than murray.
i dont see how u can put ferrer above murray. murray has been to a grandslam final every year since 2008, while ferrer has yet to reach 1. murray has beaten nadal, federer, and djoker, i dont think ferrer has done that recently. murray is also ranked higher. ferrer is having his best season of tennis, esp in majors, yet murray has accomplished more his year in grandslams.

ferrer has not leaped-frogged murray into the big 4 category. ferrer is just plain not in the same category as the big 3 and he is just below murray.

[EaglesPhan36]

I have to disagree on Ferrer also. Until he gets to a Slam Final, Murray has shown better all surface consistency. Ferrer is a really solid player, but I think age is going to get him in the next few years. His game is predicated on great defense and once he loses a step, opponents are going to be able to beat him more readily. He really is an amazing player though ... How many guys IMPROVE their game as they hit 30? He is one of the few.

[Sport_Fish]

For a breakthrough...the two names I would put are Tsonga and Del Potro. These 2 guys are the players on tour that have the talent to beat the top 4 in best of 5's when they have themselves going at full strength. Del Potro probably has the best chance of doing so on a hard surface, as he did in the US open, but Tsonga maybe not so limited. I think he can play well on all surfaces and just needs to get his head together, which i think he will do in one these slams to have his break-through.

As for the big 4...i think Wimbledon was just a short break from the Djokovic/Nadal rivalry. I think these two guys will continue to be the best players on tour and we are still yet to see some more rivalries between them. Obviously, there is nothing to suggest anyone is beating Nadal at the French Open, atleast not so far, so that's his Slam to keep for now. US Open/AO would obviously host Djoker as the favourite to win these slams because a) I don't think Federer is going to be beating Djoker in those, and b) We have yet to see Nadal take care of Djoker in this surface since last yr. Each of these big 3 have their respective dominant surfaces.

Its hard to say when Murray will finally get his slam win. He did have a really good shot this year but couldn't deliver against Federer. But i do think in some time, he is due to come up huge in one of the slams and take it all the way - don't see it this year at US open tho. My prediction is that these Slams will go accordingly to their surface - Djoker on Hard, Nadal on the clay...and Grass probably remains the question mark, and I find it hard to believe Federer will replicate this success next year (or further) esp. when Nadal will likely not be out of the picture so early in the tournament.

If any of the big 3 do not win any of the slams in the near future, I think Del Potro or Tsonga will be the one that take one of these.

As for Raonic, lol....I don't think he even comes close for atleast 2-3 years, and even then, i still doubt this kid has the mental composure to handle the big stage. I think the best he will do, if he gets himself together, will be a career simliar to Isner and he will hang around just outside top 10. I just don't see him capable of getting past this.