[PharaohUB]

I really like Andy Murray tomorrow. Federer win over Djokovic wasn't as impressive as Murray's over Tsonga or Ferrer as strange as that sounds. I've watched every match this tournament including both players. Djokovic game was way off. I've never seen Andy Murray in such good form and so mentally focused. He returns everything and will frustrate federer who will start to make mistakes. Forget history and all that he will get it done tomorrow.

I'm wagering Air Units because baseball has killed me this week and I refuse to re-load for a little while.

This is another reason this bet will win. Whenever I really like a bet and have no cash in my account left because I blew it on stupid bets it will inevitably win.

Put your bankroll on it and thank me later.

I'd like to point out I've never put 1 billion air units on anything so I'm really putting my rep on the line for this play.

[PharaohUB]

dont put any money on this on my account please ive beem gettin killed lately lol

[Mercersux]

I'll trump your billion and go 2 billion air units on Murray. What do you say to that kind sir ???

[ParlayininHTown]

Murray has the tools to pull this off ... The biggest keys, to me, are to grab one of the first two sets and bomb as many aces as possible. Free points against a player as great as Fed are huge.

If Murray is constantly faulting on his first serve like Djokovic did in the match-changing game (serving at 5-4 during the third set Friday), it could cost him the entire match. In the critical service games during sets that seem headed toward a tiebreak, Murray's first serve has to be in, and it has to be good enough to keep Federer from starting a rally.

The only thing that worries me about this match is that Murray really hasn't been tested mentally in this tournament, aside from the first two sets of the Ferrer match. Sure, he's had some brief tense moments, but only Ferrer had a legitimate chance to beat him.

It's easy to compliment Murray on his mental strength during this tournament, but aside from when he was down in the second set against Ferrer, I just can't think of any other point in which negative thinking would've been a rational reaction. No wonder he hasn't looked like his usual self in this tournament. It's easy to keep emotions and negativity in check when everything is going well ... and that's pretty much how it's been for Murray in this tournament outside of the first half of one match.

For the first time all tournament, Murray will have legitimate reason to feel that the uphill climb is too steep. Can he remain positive and play his best tennis of the match if he drops the first set or two of the first three? Or maybe he jumps out to a 2-1 lead and can close out Fed in four, avoiding the cycle of negativity that has plagued him in the past?

Going to be an interesting match, even if it winds up as a straight-set whitewash. The mental aspect of this thing is extremely compelling to me.

[PharaohUB]

It's all about where Murray is mentally. I've just seen him this tournament be down and out many times and always get back in it. It's the same way Serena has been this tournament. I'd like to see the stat of how many times Andy was down 15-40 on his serve and what percentage he came back and won the game. Honestly I think it might be close to 90% this tournament.

We'll just let the match do the talking tomorrow. Feel pretty confident Murray is in the zone right now. So is Federer, but Murray has the crowd and Federer is prone to unforced errors. Having to hit it 9-10 times in a rally vs 2-3 times in a rally against earlier opponents will steer more points to Federers opponent. Either way going to be a fun match.

[ParlayininHTown]

It's all about where Murray is mentally. I've just seen him this tournament be down and out many times and always get back in it. It's the same way Serena has been this tournament. I'd like to see the stat of how many times Andy was down 15-40 on his serve and what percentage he came back and won the game. Honestly I think it might be close to 90% this tournament.

We'll just let the match do the talking tomorrow. Feel pretty confident Murray is in the zone right now. So is Federer, but Murray has the crowd and Federer is prone to unforced errors. Having to hit it 9-10 times in a rally vs 2-3 times in a rally against earlier opponents will steer more points to Federers opponent. Either way going to be a fun match.

Being down 15-40 on serve when it's 3-3 or 4-4 in a set isn't the same kind of pressure as being down 2 sets to none like Federer was against Benneteau. Facing match points, facing a set point to be down 2-0, that's real pressure. Think of Djokovic-Tsonga at the French Open. Murray hasn't faced that kind of pressure during this tournament.

Also, consider that Murray had to feel that he was better than every one of his opponents to this point. I don't know if he has enough confidence to believe he is actually a better tennis player than Roger Federer. That's why I wonder about his mental fortitude. Does he believe he can come from behind in a slam final against the man who with more slams than anyone? If he does, he's won half the battle.

[PharaohUB]

True. I guess what I'm thinking is he won't get broken even when he's down 15-40 early on so that way he will never have to be down two sets to federer . Time for bed if I plan on getting up to watch this.

[baskets]

out ya'll fukking minds

murray is a loser. he will lose tomorrow. fed is a winner

[Mercersux]

In all seriousness though. You have to think if murray will ever win a gs this is the opportunity. I mean he's home, has played pretty well the entire tourney so far. Faced adversity and hasn't folded up shop like we're so used to seeing. athletics is all about peaking at the right time. he also hasn't shown really been in a vulnerable spot so far this tourney like fed has. I think if its murray knows this is probably his big chance. Can't remember the last tourney where the big 3 looked so vulnerable.

[Mercersux]

Sry my grammar was kind of off stupid cell can be a pain but I think you get what im putting down.

[baskets]

this is his best shot? huh?

playing at home? won't make a difference. Fed is better and will win. was almost down 2-0 to weaponless Ferrer.

you're fantasizing about Murray and pulling shit out of your ass.

he will lose yet again. he will very likely be nervous to start the match... and there is a strong prob Fed will take the set. after that it's all downhill for Mug

[Thurgood]

Federer is like Lance Armstrong and Murray is like Jan Ulrich. An above avg tennis player the media wants you to think is a rival. Federer in straights.

[GunShard]

Air bet = Bet betpoints

[PharaohUB]

Playing well so far. btw being challenged by benneteau even if your down 50 sets isn't as impressive as murrary coming back from down a set to ferrer, break points in 2nd set. then winning tie breaker after being down a break in points and a set.

benneteau and ferrer/tsonga aren't even in the same room. the fact he could challenge federer should tell you something.

[ParlayininHTown]

Playing well so far. btw being challenged by benneteau even if your down 50 sets isn't as impressive as murrary coming back from down a set to ferrer, break points in 2nd set. then winning tie breaker after being down a break in points and a set.

benneteau and ferrer/tsonga aren't even in the same room. the fact he could challenge federer should tell you something.

My point was that Federer's comeback was more pressure-packed, not that Benny is better than Ferrer. Federer faced match points, not set points. It's a lot different to come back from near-death than coming back from down one set and a break. As long as you're still in the second set, you have a chance to even the match at 1 set and completely turn the match around. There is no reason to get down on yourself in the second set of a best-of-five match. It doesn't take as much work under pressure, even against a superior player, because you're not asking yourself to win 3 sets in a row. You just have to dig out of one hole in one set. 15-40 is even easier ... pop out a couple of aces and you're back on level footing in that game. If you're down 15-40 in a match point scenario, it becomes a lot tougher for Murray to win two consecutive points because the cycle of negative thinking begins to overwhelm him.

But this is not about who had the better comeback in this tournament. Federer's comeback against Benny not impressive. He did what he should have done. This is only about Murray.

The reason the comeback against Ferrer didn't impress me is because Murray knows he is better than Ferrer, and therefore, had no legitimate reason to think negatively even when he was losing that second-set tiebreak. He could continue to play with confidence knowing he is in fact a better player. Had he come back from match points or a two-set hole (or even a 2-1 hole) -- you know, a hole that would require more work to dig out of -- against Ferrer, I doubt Murray would have won that match.

Against Fed, is this the case? Well, we're about to find out. Murray is now down 2-1, and if he does not truly believe he is a better player than Federer he has absolutely no chance to win. This is my biggest question about Murray winning a slam. When he's losing to someone who is better than him, can he remain positive (or delusional) and continue to tell himself he is better than the other guy? Will his emotions remain in check?

If you don't believe you're the better player, it's hard to have the confidence and positive energy you need to make a comeback. That's the only point I was trying to make. If Murray starts believing in himself, even when things are going against him and he's about to lose a match, he can reach greater heights.

We can agree to disagree on the more pressurized comeback. That wasn't really my argument in the first place. Impressive isn't the word I was looking for, and I apologize if I used it in one of my non-sober posts last night. I was just trying to use the Fed comeback as an example of a situation in which a player should actually begin to think negatively. Has Murray overcome these issues with his emotions and negative thoughts? Does he really believe he is better than Federer, Djokovic or Nadal? He better if he ever wants to beat them in a slam final.

[PharaohUB]

Well we were all wrong. Had nothing to do with Murray's mental mindset. Federer just flat out beat him and is a better tennis player. I guess I thought Murray had the game to beat Federer if he played his best, but he just doesn't. He played his best, didn't break down mentally. Federer still won.

[benrama]

At this stage of their careers Murray's A game can beat Federer's A game, so it actually is all mental - Parlay is right on the money on this. Federer also got the lucky break with the weather and roof closing.

Murray has the mental strength of a flea despite having Ivan the great in his corner. British in general have a losing mentality, it's like some cultural DNA defect, the only English victory at anything meaningful I can remember in the last few decades was the Rugby world cup.

When you are mentally crippled like Murray you start to find ways to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. You can beat people you know you have a big advantage over (eg Ferrer) but when you meet your match you crumble.

Even Ivan can't be a shrink

[AraiWa]

Glad I faded this pick! Murray is a twat, plain and simple, and he's got a twat mentality that translates in to his game

[Mercersux]

Glad I faded this pick! Murray is a twat, plain and simple, and he's got a twat mentality that translates in to his game

Yeah the headcase Murray definitely showed up to this match. I got cold feet going on Fed so stayed off this match completely but so sad watching a guy who is so talented in Murray always having his noggin selling him short. Think this match may be career crippling.

[EaglesPhan36]

What was so crippling about this match? He got beat by a better player today, but showed pretty well for the match. This wasn't a straight sets beatdown. He didn't lose control on the court. This match is far less damaging to Murray's psyche than any Slam Final loss that he has had. He wasn't up 2-0 on Federer. He did have mach points on him at any point .... this wasn't like Tsonga and Djokovic @ the French Open. This was as said before, the best tennis player of all-times beating a really good tennis player.

This match was a lot closer than the beatdown Federer laid on Djokovic in the semis.

[Mercersux]

What was so crippling about this match? He got beat by a better player today, but showed pretty well for the match. This wasn't a straight sets beatdown. He didn't lose control on the court. This match is far less damaging to Murray's psyche than any Slam Final loss that he has had. He wasn't up 2-0 on Federer. He did have mach points on him at any point .... this wasn't like Tsonga and Djokovic @ the French Open. This was as said before, the best tennis player of all-times beating a really good tennis player.

This match was a lot closer than the beatdown Federer laid on Djokovic in the semis.

I tend to think that this whole tournament had a lot of unexpected things happen clearing the way for Murray to finally break through. You really think that Murray won't have a Nadal or a much tougher road laying in front of him next time? Especially with a whole country behind him. He even was up a srt against Fed and couldn't seal the deal. If the post match interview didn't really explain Murray's shortcomings (which is all mental) then I'll tell you...IT'S MENTAL. 0-4 in grand slam finals. I have no doubts the guy is talented enough so why hasn't he got the job done yet? You could also clearly see after that back and forth game in the third set which Murray ultimately lost it just broke him completely. This isn't like other sports where an individuals shortcomings can be covered up by his teammates. An individual rises or falls on his own accord. I would like to see Murray win a gs because this kid gets rode hard for his constant shortcomings in big spots. If this wasn't the perfect storm for Murray then I don't know what will be. If he's to get to this same spot another time he'll face a lot more resistance. Maybe he'll end up making all of us doubters eat our words sometime but it really looks more and more unlikely.

[EaglesPhan36]

Perfect storm would have been facing someone not named Federer or Djokovic in the final. Any time you're playing the greatest player ever in a Slam final on his best surface, I don't think you can call it a perfect storm all the way through. I think Murray had the toughest road to get to the finals, so I think he proved a lot to himself this tournament. He had the toughest quarter and fought through it. Obviously any time you don't have to play Nadal, it's a plus - but given Rafa's tendonitis, even if he doesn't lose to Rosol, he might have been ripe for an upset somewhere else. Djokovic and Federer had much easier quarters to navigate through.

I don't think Murray necessarily needs a perfect storm to win. He probably has to play the match of his life and get a little below the best from his opponent if it's Rafa, Djokovic or Fed - but I think he has shown in the Slam meetings with Djokovic and Federer this year that he's right there. Obviously it would help to get lucky, much like it helped Federer get the French in 2009 when Soderling KO'ed Rafa before the final. The guy consistently puts himself in position to be in finals. I said it during the tournament, no one really gives him credit for consistency - he has made the semifinals of a Slam in nine of the last 13 Slams and seven of the last eight. That rivals the other big three, but obviously he's not going to get any props until he wins a Slam.

[Mercersux]

Perfect storm would have been facing someone not named Federer or Djokovic in the final. Any time you're playing the greatest player ever in a Slam final on his best surface, I don't think you can call it a perfect storm all the way through. I think Murray had the toughest road to get to the finals, so I think he proved a lot to himself this tournament. He had the toughest quarter and fought through it. Obviously any time you don't have to play Nadal, it's a plus - but given Rafa's tendonitis, even if he doesn't lose to Rosol, he might have been ripe for an upset somewhere else. Djokovic and Federer had much easier quarters to navigate through.

I don't think Murray necessarily needs a perfect storm to win. He probably has to play the match of his life and get a little below the best from his opponent if it's Rafa, Djokovic or Fed - but I think he has shown in the Slam meetings with Djokovic and Federer this year that he's right there. Obviously it would help to get lucky, much like it helped Federer get the French in 2009 when Soderling KO'ed Rafa before the final. The guy consistently puts himself in position to be in finals. I said it during the tournament, no one really gives him credit for consistency - he has made the semifinals of a Slam in nine of the last 13 Slams and seven of the last eight. That rivals the other big three, but obviously he's not going to get any props until he wins a Slam.

I don't think anyone is saying Murray isn't consistent for the most part. Guy is always a threat up until the Semi-finals/Finals and I think that's fair to say based on results. All im saying is having this been his fourth crack at a gs finals and to come up short once again just seems to be more of a detriment to his supposed fragile psyche than help. I don't think anyone would argue that although Murray may have played his best gs final match to date, close just isn't enough. Eagle I think your one of the more knowledgeable tennis folk on here and defintely respect your opinion, think I'm just going to have to disagree with you on this one. Murray was even acknowledging in the post match interview that he heard from many people this was his best crack at finally winning a gs so i just hope he didn't believe the hype because an already fragile psyche won't gain anything from this. If anything being up a set and letting the game get away from him only hurts more than it helps. I only really started watching from about mid second set on so can't say much from that point but it just seemed that every game on Fed's serve seemed like a breeze for the most part while Murray was battling like hell every service game.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well when the roof closed, Roger's serve became about unbeatable. Federer had the great advantage to play several matches under the roof this tournament and had those also that changed mid-match from outdoor-to-indoor. I don't think people made a big enough deal about what a potential big issue this was coming into the final. I was shocked they got as good a weather as they did early and as expected, they kept the roof open as long as possible. Not that it was bending the rules or anything, but I think if it was a passing shower - they probably would have tried to keep from closing the roof. There was no doubt the outdoor conditions gave Murray his best chance to win.

Again I just don't think this loss does more damage than any other he has suffered. He didn't get crushed which really ruined him in the others, he wasn't at a point where he could really "taste" a win because he was so close and I really think in the end, the Lendl Effect will help him move on from this one. I mean even the great Roger Federer broke down during Finals losses before, obviously we put more weight behind Murray doing this because he's never won one, but I think it just showed that he wants it that bad.

You could see what a big deal it was just to get to the Final when he beat Tsonga by his reaction. Breaking that skid for the Brits was a big thing. I also think too many people jumped on the bandwagon that Murray had his "best chance" as soon as Nadal lost. I never understood that thinking because he had such tough matches before he would have even gotten a crack @ Rafa in the semis. It certainly helped once he got there, but it's not like Rafa got knocked out and then both Djokovic and Federer lost too. He was going to have to earn it if he won.