[baskets]

I know Rafa's clay resume is absolutely incredible, but he faced a collection of stiffs on the way to the final.

Ferrer is a weaponless laborer who can't dent the big boys. Almagro is a chip below Ferrer.


Let us not forget:

ROBIN FUKKING SODERLING : 23.41

-

1.01

$$$

A man who knew no fear and said, "Rafa, fukk you. I'm going to make you my bitch. Let's get it on!"

That's the attitude to take when you go to war. So many of these pro tennis players stroll in with their pussy lips hanging out their shorts and don't fight to the death. Fed has the tools to beat Rafa, but his gigantic pussy lips make him flop against Rafa.

Djoker basically owns Nadal now (cannot be argued) and he sure as fukk aint afraid of Rafa.

In Monte Carlo Djoker was playing after his grandpappy stepped on a mine and got blown to shit pieces. If u watched the match, he didn't give a flying fukk. In Rome, Djoker didn't fully bring it.... and that linesman's call that denied Djoker set point in the first set flipped the match.

Anyways, congrats to Rafa on 1 legit win > Djoker in last 9 matches.


Sunday recipe: (let's see if this comes true). I think Djoker can pull this off.


1. 1ST SERVE %:............................DJOKER > % (or likely almost even)
2. 1ST SERVE PTS WON:..................DJOKER > %
3. 2ND SERVE PTS WON:.................DJOKER > %

4. BREAKS POINTS:.........................DJOKER with more
5. BREAK CONVERSIONS:..................NADAL converts more... maybe
6. RETURN POINTS WON:.................DJOKER > %


All that sounds rather crazy when he's a -330 dog or whatever. But jump back to the Almagro match and you see that Rafa managed just 6 bp's vs. Nico. Converted 3 times. And against his bitch-master, Mr. Djoker??? Come on.


Djoker greater ability to hold and better return game.


Some odds:

DJoker breaks first: +161/-190
Djoker most aces: -185/+157

Games played per set: 9-10 favored in each set
Djoker most winners: -101/-115


Djoker/Rafa % 1st Serve pts won: 66.5/72.5
Djoker/Rafa % 2nd Serve pts won: 48.5/49.5

Djoker First Serve %: 66.5
Rafa First Serve %: 65.5

Some bets maybe make sense:

1. Djoker/Rafa ^3.5 sets: -160
2. Djoker breaks first: +161
3. 2nd set games: 9-10 (-110), 11+ (+210)
4. Djoker more winners: -101 (Almagro had more winners vs. Rafa)
5. Over 38: -107

6. Djoker 1st set +2: -120
7. Djoker 1st set win: +205

[baskets]

Also, if this goes 5, I think Djoker is toast... due to stamina issues. He won't be able to do what he did in Aussie.... that combined w/ the surface.


My collective indicator (and u can suck my dick before talk shit about it) I've tested back many years. And on the spread it's >80%. What it all says after everything is finalized:


Djoker wins.


I cannot deny the value on +294 ... but I just can't do it.

[Sport_Fish]

Actually if it goes 5, I think Djoker would win. He appeared to have major 'stamina issues' in the AO too where it went to 5 but he did enough to pull out the win. The fact that it goes to 5 would mean Djoker is playing better and/or keeping up with Nadal on his best surface and he's outplaying him mentally. Nadal wont handle the pressure well if it goes 5....gonna have flashbacks leading back to last year.

But anyway, would be surprised to see Djoker win a set here. Nadal in 3.

[MagicDiceFlow]

Damn baskets, i like your presentation skills. You got more stats than a shareholder's meeting....didnt know you had that in ya.....sounds like you're going pretty deep on Djoker tomorrow....nice work.

[Ron29301]

Two of the best tennis players out there and they make one a -300 odd is like throwing money away. It could go either way. Baskets you have a good point. Wouldn't hurt to put a small amount on Joker.

[baskets]

DJOKER, YOU MUST DELIVER ONE MESSAGE AND ONE MESSAGE ONLY TO RAFA-BiTCH!!!



__________________



GET ER DUN, DJOKER!!!

[MagicDiceFlow]

that's JJGold on HGH ^^^^^^

[makman]

Good thread baskets.
I am not fading Joker, I am backing him.
Joker is getting prepared for this final of FO for a long time.
He finished Fedex in the semis in straight sets shows how much Joker is determined
He will bury `the king of clay` into clay of Roland Garros.
It is insane to open these lines for the man who made Nadal his bitch last year on all types of surfaces including clay.

Joker is the poet of epic games, I will not be much surprised to see him make Nadal his bitch one more time with straight sets win or 3-1 just like in Wimbledon last year.

* Joker ML
* Joker 3-0
* Joker 3-1

will be my plays

[steviec27]

There is a reason Nadal is the favourite, the guy is in absolute beast mode!!!

He has not played against any pushovers in the last 3 rounds. Monaco (rank 13), Almagro (12) & Ferrer (6) all of which play their best tennis on clay...and he destroyed them all. He has made otherwise good clay court players look less than average. He only dropped 18 games in 3 matches to 3 of the worlds top 13 which averages at winning each set by 2 breaks.

Yes I know Djokovic has played Federer and Tsonga who are both very good players but he has had a few 5 setters in the latter stages and managed to pull it out the bag.
Nadal looks fresh having not lost a set.

You say about Djokovic having a hold over Nadal of late. I think you might be skirting over the fact that Nadal has won the last 2 (both on clay), and head to head on clay Nadal owns Djoker 11-2!

Anyway, I am not doubting the fact that that the price is big on Djokovic given he is world number 1 but there is a reason why Nadal is favorite here.
Djokovic wont get rolled over by any means he is too resilient, but IMO Nadal comes out on top.

GL all

[Imsmarterthanu]

in such a high level matchup in tennis bet the +

[baskets]

pre-match odds comparison

1. Djoker/Rafa ^3.5 sets: -160.............................-165
2. Djoker breaks first: +161.................................n/l
3. 2nd set games: 9-10 (-110), 11+ (+210)...........-106, +215
4. Djoker more winners: -101...............................-142 (wow!)
5. Over 38: -107..................................... ............38.5, -114

6. Djoker 1st set +2: -120....................................-138
7. Djoker 1st set win: +205..................................+2 05

[Luca Fury]

I have a parlay that Nadal is the last leg of. Need him to win by any score.

Then I have a hedge on Djokovic wins 3-2 at +1200. Can't see him getting the upset unless it's a long, grueling 5 set match that he edges out. If he were to win, I would be quite surprised if it was by 3-0 or 3-1.

I'm liking my spot here.

[baskets]

1. 1ST SERVE %:............................DJOKER > % (or likely almost even) 59 to 62 ... lost by few points (hello df's)
2. 1ST SERVE PTS WON:..................DJOKER > %................................ 62% to 62%
3. 2ND SERVE PTS WON:.................DJOKER > %................................. 53% to 44%

4. BREAKS POINTS:.........................DJOKER with more.......................... 17 to 10 Rafa
5. BREAK CONVERSIONS:..................NADAL converts more... maybe ....... 9 to 7 Rafa
6. RETURN POINTS WON:.................DJOKER > % .................................. 46% to 42% Rafa

Some odds:

DJoker breaks first: +161/-190.............................. RAFA
Djoker most aces: -185/+157................................. Rafa 4 to 3

Games played per set: 9-10 favored in each set ....... 10 , 9 , 8 , 12
Djoker most winners: -101/-115 ............................ DJOKER


Djoker/Rafa % 1st Serve pts won: 66.5/72.5 ............. 62 TO 62
Djoker/Rafa % 2nd Serve pts won: 48.5/49.5 ............ 44 TO 53

Djoker First Serve %: 66.5 ...................... 59%
Rafa First Serve %: 65.5 .......................... 62%

Some bets maybe make sense:

1. Djoker/Rafa ^3.5 sets: -160..................................... ....win
2. Djoker breaks first: +161.................................... ..........loss
3. 2nd set games: 9-10 (-110), 11+ (+210)........................push (loss 0)
4. Djoker more winners: -101..................................... .......win
5. Over 38: -107..................................... ........................win

6. Djoker 1st set +2: -120..................................... ...........push
7. Djoker 1st set win: +205.................................... ..........loss

3-2 , +1.00 ........ not bad. only 2 losses there were the +161 and the +205

you can see statistically Djoker played horribly. this was attributed to his mind going into the match.

anyways, looking at the before and after, and looking at their history.... a recipe is established for their next grand slam meeting

[Demonata]

Hey man hopefully Joker wins wimbledon.