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Strong play on ALMAGRO -5 games vs Baker
Baker's lucky run ends tomorrow in embarrassing fashion. Look for an ugly scoreboard tomorrow. I wouldnt be surprised if Baker bakes a bagel and loses 6-3 6-0. Almagro wants to get this over quickly to start resting up for Roland Garros. He's not going to fukk around with Baker. Lay the 5 games .....it's a solid bet.
--------------------------ALMAGRO -5 / -115 /5 units ------------------------------
Seems better than the under. If Bryan somehow wins a set 7-6, you still have a decent chance to get the cover.
Much better play than the under. Even if Baker happens to get lucky and win a set(which I highly doubt), he'll be gassed and lose the final set 6-2.Originally Posted by ParlayininHTown
I first thought Almagro was gonna wipe the floor with Baker tomm. But then I started to think about a couple different things...... This might be alot closer than MOST people think. Reasons??? Well, I finally saw this Baker guy play. I saw a replay of the Davy match. At first, I didn't think much. No humungous shot. No big big serve. But what I did see, is that when Baker has TIME to set up his groundies, HOLY CRAP! He torched the ball. Much bigger groundies than I thought initially. I heard of this Baker guy a long time ago. Kind of forgot about him. In Juniors, he was on the same level as Murray & Djokovic. This guy was going to be a top 20 freaking player when he was younger. OR better. BUT he had SO SO many injuries and surgeries, he never got the chance. SO, he is going to be free as a bird tommorrow I think! He has NOTHING to lose. You can see it in his face, that he is just happy to be out there playing & he is probably thinking in his head at times that THIS is what he could of been doing from when he was a huge prospect junior around 18. I honestly feel that he is just psyched to be on the court & be playing, that he will be so relaxed and lose. Why not?? He is expected to lose. Nobody knows his story really. THOSE are the matches where you see some crazy shit happen. Now, Almagro COULD take one set pretty easily, but Baker has ONE advantage going into THIS match over his match with Davy. Davy stays RIGHT ON the baseline & takes the ball freaking early as a MO FO! He took so much time away from Baker, I could tell he was like........WTF??? But with Niko, he stays freaking 10 feet behind the baseline & that is going to give Baker a LOT more time to set up his groundstrokes & be able to hit out alot easier. I am not saying he will beat Almagro easy, I am only saying that he will have MORE TIME to set up & hit balls. SO, this could be a freaking marathon match if Baker can keep going & going tomm. Why not??? Again, he has absolutely nothing to lose. I don't even know if he is playing the French. Maybe he got a WC??? Bec qualies is going on now & he is in a freaking FINAL in Nice. ANOTHER thing going for Baker is that he has won around 14 matches in a ROW on the clay leading up to this final. He has GOT to have confidence. Even if he thinks he is overmatched, he will have a free flowing stroke tomm that has won him alot of matches that people wrote him off for already. If there is any pressure here, it is on Niko. Will I think Niko will win??? YES> By 6 games or more??? Ewwww, that I can't be so sure of. If you see only ONE set get close, then Baker covers that +5 I think. Depends in Niko who hits winners shows up tomm OR if Niko who likes to freaking get into 34 shot rallies shows up tomm. THIS is what will decide the match. Baker is still getting his form back. He still has alot of work to do. BUT, I would not be surprised at all to see a close score line. Remember that Niko does play alot of tiebreakers in most of his matches. I KNOW he torched Simon yesterday, but Simon can sometimes look like he is pushing the ball out there.
Just my thoughts, I wish ev1 luck who plays this match!!! I don't know what the over is, but if we see that first set breaker or 4 or 5, then maybe it hits over 20. I can see one tight set and one not so tight set. Handicap could be super close, but if that over is at 20, I can't see Baker losing horribly tomm. He has game for sure! You can tell on certain shots that he could of been a top 10 maybe. If he is on tomm, he WILL give Niko a run. If he is not OR if Niko is hitting winners all over, he will lose pretty good. I'm still thinking about this one............
BOL Diceflow!!!
Holy crap!!! LOL. I didn't think my comment was THAT long. I just kept typing and when I hit submit, it was long as crap. Sorry ya'll. I didn't mean to rant. I was just bored & I have been off the thread for over a day. LOL>
No prob Dmoney. Respect your opinion but man, Almagro is playing like a beast right now on clay. Even though Baker has beaten some tough opponents in Davydenko & Isner, those clowns are no match for the mode Almagro's in right now. He's in certified beast mode to put that much of an ass whoopin' on someone as good as Gilles Simon on clay 6-3 6-1. If he can lay down those type of numbers on Simon, Baker doesnt stand a chance tomorrow.
The only way i see Almagro losing this match is if he's fixing(which he's known to do in the past). But this is a final and he's got a chance to grab a title so I highly doubt it. I'll take my chances on it.
It seems like Almagro's career is made off of these wins in the claycourt ATP 250s and 500s lol. Bakers run wasn't lucky btw, I agree with you bc Baker has played a ton of matches now and Almagro doesn't disappoint in these types of matches.
To answer one of dmoney's questions ... Yes, Baker will be in the French Open. I saw him listed on the draw on the FO web site. If I'm not mistaken, he qualified earlier this year by winning an event in Savannah.
One thing to consider heading into this match is that Baker is on a lengthy win streak. Sure, he hasn't played anyone nearly as good as Almagro, but that has to give him a lot of confidence at the moment.
Of course, Almagro being the defending champion of the Nice tournament has to give him plenty of confidence as well ...
Baker may be on a 15 match win streak but one thing to consider is this will be his very first ATP final. He may be free stroking it but I guarantee there will be jitters during his first ever final. Free stroking it in a small set format can actually hurt Baker. Before he knows it , he'll be down 5-1.
Someone pounded the Almagro -5 hard at Heritage, its up to -135 now. It wasnt me, I grabbed it at -115 and it stayed like that for over 2 hrs. Someone just pounded it in the last 5 minutes.
Good point.
I didn't play it. But I'm pulling for ya MDF!!
Cash it boys.....Baker looked gassed in that second set, made a lot of unforced errors.
too bad I didn't place a play on it, good call man!
easy win. dude had no gas
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