[Sport_Fish]

I think the price on Simon (-230) indicates this match-up may be closer than one might expect. H2H, Simon has run over Bellucci in the past but right now, Bellucci is serving good enough that I think he'll be able to compete here. And if he does continue to serve well, a close 2-setter will cash this, although I believe he's gonna be able to win a set here against Simon. 21.5 is a relatively low total to cash the OVER unless Bellucci goes into his classic tank-mode. He's only been broken once in his last several matches, albeit against much inferior opponents, so expect Simon to have difficulty in his return games.

(-230) on Simon may also be a result of fatigue, as he has been playing alot the past several weeks...because I seriously think this line should be closer to -300, if not more, had Simon been more rested prior to this match. I also wouldn't be surprised if Simon decides to take this one easy and accept an exit here to get some rest for the Grand Slam.

[baskets]

u argued yourself out of it already, bro


Bellucci vs Simon OVER 21.5



I also wouldn't be surprised if Simon decides to take this one easy and accept an exit here to get some rest for the Grand Slam.

this is classic "don't give a shits-ville". take a look at some of these tourneys... players just packing it in... not a chance in hell I'd back any fave over -101 in these tourneys right now. cashed some easy unders b/c players have showed up on the courts already w/ suitcase in hand.. ergo world cup matches. that being said.. if this match goes over, it'd happen via 3 sets... likely won't be a chance for a 2 set over... so you've got that against u as well

I've been going over some matches look for the 2-set quickie, whitewash. you might want to look that way as well

[ParlayininHTown]

I think the price on Simon (-230) indicates this match-up may be closer than one might expect. H2H, Simon has run over Bellucci in the past but right now, Bellucci is serving good enough that I think he'll be able to compete here. And if he does continue to serve well, a close 2-setter will cash this, although I believe he's gonna be able to win a set here against Simon. 21.5 is a relatively low total to cash the OVER unless Bellucci goes into his classic tank-mode. He's only been broken once in his last several matches, albeit against much inferior opponents, so expect Simon to have difficulty in his return games.

(-230) on Simon may also be a result of fatigue, as he has been playing alot the past several weeks...because I seriously think this line should be closer to -300, if not more, had Simon been more rested prior to this match. I also wouldn't be surprised if Simon decides to take this one easy and accept an exit here to get some rest for the Grand Slam.

Donald Young and J.C. Ferrero each broke Bellucci, so he has lost his serve more than once this week. In fact, Young got a break at a critical point in the third set and likely would have won that match had he not pissed away so many break points before and after that point. Donald Young lost that match more than Bellucci won it, although Bellucci played a good match against JCF the next day. This is the only reason I'd be worried about the over not hitting, aside from Simon giving a huge middle-finger to his home country by tanking this match.

I think if Young and JCF can get a break, Simon will find a way. But Bellucci can break Simon as well, and I agree that this will be a difficult match for the Frenchman. We'll see if playing in front of the home crowd will be enough motivation for Simon to go all-out for the win tomorrow.

Either way, the over looks good here. But beware of the tank ...

[baskets]

intersting under might be Arod 22

they always have to put his total high b/c of the serve...

[baskets]

interesting under

schiavone/larsson

is schiavone is getting back into some kind of form... she could thrash larsson

[baskets]

she won FO in 2010, finalist in 2011.... not a reach to say that she might be able to turn it back on and blast Larsson

[Sport_Fish]

Donald Young and J.C. Ferrero each broke Bellucci, so he has lost his serve more than once this week. In fact, Young got a break at a critical point in the third set and likely would have won that match had he not pissed away so many break points before and after that point. Donald Young lost that match more than Bellucci won it, although Bellucci played a good match against JCF the next day. This is the only reason I'd be worried about the over not hitting, aside from Simon giving a huge middle-finger to his home country by tanking this match.

I think if Young and JCF can get a break, Simon will find a way. But Bellucci can break Simon as well, and I agree that this will be a difficult match for the Frenchman. We'll see if playing in front of the home crowd will be enough motivation for Simon to go all-out for the win tomorrow.

Either way, the over looks good here. But beware of the tank ...

I meant broken once in each of the matches...my bad, wasnt clear.

[Sport_Fish]

u argued yourself out of it already, bro


Bellucci vs Simon OVER 21.5



I also wouldn't be surprised if Simon decides to take this one easy and accept an exit here to get some rest for the Grand Slam.

this is classic "don't give a shits-ville". take a look at some of these tourneys... players just packing it in... not a chance in hell I'd back any fave over -101 in these tourneys right now. cashed some easy unders b/c players have showed up on the courts already w/ suitcase in hand.. ergo world cup matches. that being said.. if this match goes over, it'd happen via 3 sets... likely won't be a chance for a 2 set over... so you've got that against u as well

I've been going over some matches look for the 2-set quickie, whitewash. you might want to look that way as well

Well by 'taking it easy' i meant not coming with full effort bcuz he would beat lucci in straights if he did. I think if he slacks a bit + fatigue, bellucci will be able to push this to a three setter to cash the over. As for bellucci winning in straights to make the game go under, i personally dont see it...else i wouldnt make this play.

[Pride]

the whole tank angle is a wash in this match. if anyone gives up it is going to be bellucci, not simon.

[Dmoneytx]

I agree with Pride on this one. Simon will NOT tank this match. He is a top seed AND he is playing at home in front of his fans. He is the type of player that will try to win this tment AND try to make a run in the French also. If anyone ducks this match, it is Bellucci. Simon just isn't that quitting type of player in my eyes. He always plays hard, like the Asians do in my opinion.
AND if anyone is fatigued it is NOT Simon. This is only his second match for this tment. If anyone is feeling the legs at this point, it Bellucci. This will be his 6th match in 5 days! And now he has to do a LOT of running in this match bec Simon will run him to death I hope.

It might go over Fish, but Simon also might know how to play Bellucci. Both wins all came in straights & no sets really close. I do think today could be different, but if Simon can go up early, u might just see Bellucci caving in. At least I hope so.......

BOL today!

[Sport_Fish]

Well i certainly wasnt relying on Simon losing/caving to cash this...just one small factor i felt could potentially play in to help the over.

My main angle was both players being able to serve well and hold, and i felt teh total was right that it could ve cashed in 2 sets.

[Sport_Fish]

And of course, first set plays out perfectly...then Bellucci turns into Bellucci =/

[Dmoneytx]

This is why CRAPLUCCI is on my black list. The guy has so much talent in that left arm, but look at that second set huh?? Freaking bagel?? Ouch Mr. Thomaz!! I knew if anyone folded, it would be that retard. I have saved SO much money not backing that guy for awhile now or banking on him to push something like the over to cash. I, personally, will never trust the guy again & I haven't for quite some time. I didn't think it was a bad play Fish, but I wouldn't of played it for my own reasons. I hope you do have a good rest of the day wagering!! Always pulling for ya

[Sport_Fish]

This is why CRAPLUCCI is on my black list. The guy has so much talent in that left arm, but look at that second set huh?? Freaking bagel?? Ouch Mr. Thomaz!! I knew if anyone folded, it would be that retard. I have saved SO much money not backing that guy for awhile now or banking on him to push something like the over to cash. I, personally, will never trust the guy again & I haven't for quite some time. I didn't think it was a bad play Fish, but I wouldn't of played it for my own reasons. I hope you do have a good rest of the day wagering!! Always pulling for ya

Yeah, don't understand this guy...first set was so close, that I don't understand why he simply gave up after that and got bageled. Unreal.

GL to you as well man.

[baskets]

u don't understand why? u almost explained it yourself in your original post.

classic pre-slam quitting syndrome.... shows itself before the FO and USO

sorry about the loss, though. w/ a 7-5 1st set, that's usually a winner

[baskets]

interesting under

schiavone/larsson

is schiavone is getting back into some kind of form... she could thrash larsson

I should've played this. 6-0, 6-3 thrashing.

Schiavone is back-2-back FO finalist... I wonder if she'll roll this 3 match streak of domination into the next match.... despite her shitty year