Might flame out, but taking Jakupovic at high noon in Athens.. Actually has a few F1 tittles on the hard stuff(1 this year) and his opponent is under .500 on hard vs competition.These home country wild-cards sometimes rise up and scalp somebody.Of course the tourney organizers scheduled it as the prime time match for the home folks with the home country kid.He is actually not a kid.30 years old and has played some 15 Main draw ATP matches in his career.So no deer in headlights to worry about.Career has seen better days of course and he mostly a doubles player.
His opponent Burquier only has 1 win on HARD(main draw) since sept 2011 on the Challenger level, and that was back in New Caledonia on Jan 2.So no frig-gin way he should be -300.
Good luck!!