[Sport_Fish]

I think this has the most value in this match-up at (-125). Two closely contested sets can cash this, however, I see a 3-setter in this one. As the previous matches in this tour indicate, neither players serve has been solid recently and they have each gotten broken several times and even dropped a set to far inferior opponents than what they will face today. I expect Murray to get the early break and take the opening set, which should likely set up a 3-set match, as Nadal should be able to grab atleast one set here. On the other hand, even if Nadal wins the 1st set, his knee (as he's mentioned several times) is not even close to being healthy which should assist Murray in the 2nd set - which I believe played a part in Nadal/Tsonga and Tsonga was able to grab a set there.

Worse case for this OVER is if Murray takes the opening in a 6-4 fashion and Nadal's knee gives in....which could end up being 6-4 6-4 for Murray, as Nadal won't be able to keep up with him in long rallies. However, I strongly believe Nadal will have enough in him to take atleast one set here. Another way this doesn't cash is a 6-4 6-3 type victory for Nadal. However, Murray's return and defensive game does appear strong enough to handle the relatively weak Nadal serve at this point, which should avoid a straight set victory for Nadal.

So my primary factors for playing the OVER here are:

• Poor service games from both players
• Nadal's knee (hoping it's healthy enough to take just 1 set here)
• Both players have displayed some level of fatigue late in the games, particularly 2nd sets - which should help prevent either player dominating all the way

[EaglesPhan36]

Good luck SF. I don't like when books set these lines pretty much pegging it as a 3 set match. I'm not sure if value is the correct term for a -125 line, but I see what you're getting at. I don't see a big edge personally. Based on their past results - there have been some quick, runaway sets between these two which scares me some. You'd think the defensive nature of both their games and relative lack of punch on-serve though would lend to plenty of breaks and probably the chance to see three sets. I think you have to get three sets here to cash. I don't see 23 games in a straight sets match for either.

[Sport_Fish]

Good luck SF. I don't like when books set these lines pretty much pegging it as a 3 set match. I'm not sure if value is the correct term for a -125 line, but I see what you're getting at. I don't see a big edge personally. Based on their past results - there have been some quick, runaway sets between these two which scares me some. You'd think the defensive nature of both their games and relative lack of punch on-serve though would lend to plenty of breaks and probably the chance to see three sets. I think you have to get three sets here to cash. I don't see 23 games in a straight sets match for either.

Yeah laying -125 to get to 3 sets does appear risky, but out of all the bets in this game, I personally find this one to be more 'valuable'. Esp cuz I just can't find enough reason to back either player at the price they are at.

And I agree, we may end up seeing a quick set but I think that may help the cause, as I expect both players to step up enough in one of the sets to grab one each. Several factors have to play out on both players' part for the 3-setter but I like the chances.

[horja1]

Nadal withdrew

[Sport_Fish]

Yup, all a moot point now. Damn Nadal's knee.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well that is beautiful for my Murray future. I really think at some point, Nadal is going to just need to have some surgery on his knees to clean them up or something and miss a chunk of the season if he wants to be playing when he's 30. Hell, maybe 27.